Local Government in the Third Term: Blurred Vision

1
Local Government in the Third Term Blurred
Vision?
Andrew Collinge, Research Director, MORI Social
Research Institute
2
A Vision for a Third Term
Vibrant local leadership
Involvement and perceptions of politics
Neighbourhoods
localvision
Future of local services
Performance Framework
Perceptions of services
3
A Vision Democracy and Engagement

• Views on involvement/politics
• New relationship between citizen and town hall
• social democratic agenda
• choice and voice
• citizen empowerment
• Community leadership
• New models for devolved decision making
• more (mini) mayors

Vibrant local leadership
Neighbourhoods
localvision
4
A Vision The System/Product

• Relationship with central government
• CPA excellent not good enough
• LSPs/LAAs
• More freedoms?
• Choice
• Lyons Inquiry findings
• Gershon
• What this means for image more generally?

localvision
Future of local services
Performance Framework
5
Love and Marriage down at the ODPM?
6
Product/Overall Image
7
Broad trend our image is worse than our delivery
Sunderland Trend Comparisons
514
Sunderland 2001
149
Image index
Service Index
8
Broad trend - our image is worse than our delivery
Sunderland Trend Comparisons
514
Sunderland 2001
Sunderland 2003
149
62
Image index
Service Index
9
Broad trend - our image is worse than our delivery
Sunderland Trend Comparisons
Image index
Service Index
10
Biggest Positive Gaps between Reputation and
Delivery
Gap (BV3-Ave)
19
14
11
11
10
8
7
7
6
11
Biggest Positive Gaps between Reputation and
Delivery
Gap (BV3-Ave)
19
Kent County Council
14
Corporation of London
11
East Sussex County Council
11
Cambridgeshire County Council
Runnymede Borough Council
10
Leeds City Council
8
Wolverhampton City Council
7
Westminster City Council
7
LB Wandsworth
6
12
Not getting the Credit they Deserve?
Gap (BV3-Ave)
-25
Burnley BC
Weymouth and PortlandBC
-25
-26
Melton BC
-26
Northampton BC
-26
Great Yarmouth BC
Stoke-on-Trent City Council
-26
Torbay Council
-26
Rochdale MBC
-27
Rutland County Council
-27
Walsall MBC
-28
Berwick-upon-Tweed BC
-29
Oldham MBC
-30
Rossendale BC
-32
13
All Animals are born Equal Inflated and
deflated BV3 scores
Assessment of Gap between Overall and Service
Average -
2003/04
90
80
2
R
0.2324
70
60
50
Overall satisfaction (BV3)
40
30
20
10
0
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
Service average (max 29)
14
So what really matters?
15
Regression Analysis Drivers for BV3 - Overall
Satisfaction and Services
Showing Strength of Drivers 55 of Satisfaction
explained by model
BV89 Sat cleanliness
71
BV3 Overall Satisfaction
15
BV4 Sat complaint handling
13
BV119a Sat with Sport Leisure Facilities
Base 387 LA Units (incl counties)
16
Most important drivers of reputation among local
residents
Greatest drivers ofoverall satisfaction
Perceived quality of services overall
Perceived VFM
Deprivation/diversity
Media coverage/mood
Direct communication
Weaker driversof overall satisfaction
District/ Countys performance
Street cleaning/liveability
Positive experiences of contact with staff
17
Analysis of BVPI data and ward level modelling
Ethnic Fractionalisation
-30
Showing Strength of Drivers 43 of Satisfaction
explained by model
Deprivation
-24
of Respondents working
-15
BV3 - Overall Satisfaction with the Council
12
of managers / professionals
-11
of respondents Under 35
8
of respondents with Internet at Work
Base 2000 wards
18
Counties/District Impact?
County scores lower relative to District scores
DC Average BVPI satisfaction score
Hampshire
Suffolk
Derbyshire
North Yorks
Lincs
Cheshire
Kent
E Sussex
Leics
Bucks
County scores higher relative to District scores
Beds
County BVPI satisfaction score
19
So individual services not that important?
20
Net Satisfaction with Council vs. Net
Satisfaction with Street cleaning, Recycling and
Refuse collection
Street cleaning
Net overall satisfaction with Council
Net satisfaction with streets, recycling and
refuse
21
Net Satisfaction with Council vs. Net
Satisfaction with Street cleaning, Recycling and
Refuse collection
Street cleaning
Net overall satisfaction with Council
Recycling
Net satisfaction with streets, recycling and
refuse
22
Net Satisfaction with Council vs. Net
Satisfaction with Street cleaning, Recycling and
Refuse collection
Street cleaning
Net overall satisfaction with Council
Recycling
Refuse collection
Net satisfaction with streets, recycling and
refuse
23
Net Satisfaction with Council vs. Net
satisfaction with Value for Money, Service
Provision and Perception of Remote and Impersonal
Net overall satisfaction with Council
Value for Money
Perceived Service Provision
Too Remote and Impersonal
Net satisfaction with value for money, service
provision and remoteness
24
Frontiers Four Stages of Analysis
25
Stages 1-3 Important Predictors and Simulations

• Two key variables identified
• IMD
• ethnicity - extent of ethnic fractionalisation
• Took these two variables and simulated
  satisfaction levels for various deprivation and
  ethnic fractionalisation levels
• Allowed for the County/District relationship
• Produces predicted ranges of satisfaction for
  each scenario

26
Simulated Satisfaction Levels
Likely frontier of performance (satisfaction
upper)
Average (expected satisfaction)
Weak (satisfaction lower)
27
Stage 4 Realistic Benchmarking and Target
Setting

• Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA)
• shows efficiency of units at producing outputs
  from inputs/constraints
• Identifies relative levels of performance by
  comparing with peers
• how much can be expected to improve
• how far they are from the efficiency frontier

OUTPUTS Satisfaction
INPUTS IMD, EF, Spend
LA
28
Top Dogs
Most positive
29
Ugly Ducklings
More negative
30
Relationship with CPA (2003-2004 BV3)
LAs outperforming predicted level of satisfaction
by more than 10 (32 councils)
LAs below predicted level of satisfaction by more
than 10 (21 councils)
Excellent
Good
Poor
Fair
Weak
31
So how good can you appear? A tour around key
BVPIs
32
Complaint handling
Cheshire
East Sussex
Hants
Kent
Base BVPI surveys 2003/4
33
Satisfaction with Libraries
Cheshire
Hants
East Sussex
Kent
Base BVPI surveys 2003/4
34
Satisfaction with Parks/Open Spaces
Cheshire
Hants
East Sussex
Kent
Base BVPI surveys 2003/4
35
Or on Satisfaction with Sports/leisure facilities
Hants
Cheshire
East Sussex
Kent
Base BVPI surveys 2003/4
36
Look who is top dog on overall Satisfaction
Kent
East Sussex
Cheshire
Hants
Base BVPI surveys 2003/4
37
So is it because Kent streets ahead on
Communications?
Kent
East Sussex
Hants
Cheshire
Base BVPI surveys 2003/4
38
The impact of communications
39
To be good at CPA, make sure Comms are
effective..
who feel they are kept well informed about
the services provided by the council
Base All London Councils in ALG consortium
40
To be good at CPA, make sure Comms are
effective..
Excellent rated by Audit Commission
Base All 7 Excellently rated London Councils
41
A personal perspective.
42
A personal perspective.
43
Civic EngagementSeparating Politics from Issues
44
Martin Kettle in The Guardian, 8.2.05
45
Politics is a Dirty Word
46
Interest in Politics and Issues
Q How interested would you say you are in the
following?
Very interested
Not at all interested
Fairly interested
Not very interested
Base 2,065 UK adults aged 18 , interviewed 2-6
December 2004 for Electoral Commission
47
Interest in Politics and Issues
Q How interested would you say you are in the
following?
Very interested
Not at all interested
Fairly interested
Not very interested
Local Issues
Base 2,065 UK adults aged 18 , interviewed 2-6
December 2004 for Electoral Commission
48
Interest in Politics and Issues
Q How interested would you say you are in the
following?
Very interested
Not at all interested
Fairly interested
Not very interested
Local Issues
National Issues
International Issues
Politics
Base 2,065 UK adults aged 18 , interviewed 2-6
December 2004 for Electoral Commission
49
Weve all got an image problem
Q Now I will read out a list of different people.
For each, would you tell me whether you generally
trust them to tell the truth or not?
Doctors
Teachers
Professors
Judges
Clergymen
TV/newsreaders
Scientists
The Police
Ordinary man/woman in street
Pollsters
Civil servants
Local Councillors
Managers in the NHS
TU officials
Managers in local government
Business leaders
Trust
Government Ministers
Journalists
Politicians generally
Base 2,141 British adults aged 15, Feb 2003
50
Power to the People! Attitudes Towards
Involvement
51
Political activism
Q Which, if any, of the things on this list have
you done in the last two or three years?
Base 1,107 UK adults 18 December 2004
52
Political activism
Q Which, if any, of the things on this list have
you done in the last two or three years?
(Change2003-4)
Three or more activities 16

Signed a petition
(5)
(2)
Boycotted certain products for political,
ethical or environmental reasons
(4)
Presented my views to a local councillor or MP
Urged someone to get in touch with a local
councillor or MP
(2)
(1)
Been to any political meeting
Taken part in a demonstration, picket or march
(1)
(0)
Taken an active part in a political campaign
(0)
Taken part in a strike
(-5)
None of these
Base 1,107 UK adults 18 December 2004
53
A democratic imbalance
Q To what extent do you agree or disagree with
each of the following statement I can
influence decisions affecting the local area?
Net/-
Agree
Disagree
Total
-28
All residents
Gender
-28
Men
-30
Women
Age
-38
18-24
25-34
-21
-33
35-54
55
-25
Base 2,875 Birmingham City Council residents
aged 18, postal survey 13th Oct to 15th Dec 2003
54
Something closer to the truth is.
Q Which of these statements, if any, comes
closest to your own attitudes towards Birmingham
City Council?
I like to know what the Council is doing, but Im
happy to let them get on with their job
I would like to have more say in what the Council
does, and the service it provides
I am not interested in what the Council does, as
long as they do their job
I am not interested in what the Council does, or
whether they do their job
None of these
Not stated
Base 2,875 Birmingham City Council residents
aged 18, postal survey 13th Oct to 15th Dec 2003
55
Something closer to the truth is.
Q Which of these statements, if any, comes
closest to your own attitudes towards Birmingham
City Council?
I like to know what the Council is doing, but Im
happy to let them get on with their job
I would like to have more say in what the Council
does, and the service it provides
I am not interested in what the Council does, as
long as they do their job
I am not interested in what the Council does, or
whether they do their job
None of these
Not stated
Base 2,875 Birmingham City Council residents
aged 18, postal survey 13th Oct to 15th Dec 2003
56
Something closer to the truth is.
Q Which of these statements, if any, comes
closest to your own attitudes towards Birmingham
City Council?
I like to know what the Council is doing, but Im
happy to let them get on with their job
I would like to have more say in what the Council
does, and the service it provides
I am not interested in what the Council does, as
long as they do their job
I am not interested in what the Council does, or
whether they do their job
None of these
Not stated
Base 2,875 Birmingham City Council residents
aged 18, postal survey 13th Oct to 15th Dec 2003
57
Yes, but who are they?
Wanting more involvement
Total
Male
Female
16-24
25-34
35-54
55-64
65
MELDREW
AB
C1
C2
DE
Base All respondents
Base 2,875 Birmingham City Council residents
aged 18, postal survey 13th Oct to 15th Dec 2003
58
Yes, but who are they?
Wanting more of a say
Total Satisfied Dissatisfied Well informed Not
well informed Agree good services Disagree good
services Satisfied with area Dissatisfied with
area
Base 2,875 Birmingham City Council residents
aged 18, postal survey 13th Oct to 15th Dec 2003
59
Involvement With the Council
Want to be more involved
Authority A
Authority B
Authority C
Base All residents
60
Involvement With the Council
Authority A
Authority B
Authority C
Base All residents
61
Experiments in involvement
62
Actual Involvement Community Partnerships
Q In principle, would you support or oppose
extending Community Partnerships to other parts
of the Borough?
Support
Dont know/no opinion
No, oppose
Yes, support
Base All residents (1,021)
63
Community Partnerships
Q In principle, would you support or oppose
extending Community Partnerships to other parts
of the Borough?
Q And would you personally be interested in
getting involved?
Support
Dont know/no opinion
No, oppose
Yes, support
Base All residents (1,021)
64
Community Partnerships
Q In principle, would you support or oppose
extending Community Partnerships to other parts
of the Borough?
Q And would you personally be interested in
getting involved?
Involvement
Support
Dont know
Dont know/no opinion
Depends
Yes
No, oppose
Yes, support
No
Base All residents (1,021)
Base All respondents who support the idea (835)
65
Community Partnerships
Q In principle, would you support or oppose
extending Community Partnerships to other parts
of the Borough?
Q And would you personally be interested in
getting involved?

• Ambivalent about the amount of responsibility
  citizens should take on?
• Too immersed in jobs, families leisure time to
  want to get involved in the detail?

Involvement
Support
Dont know
Dont know/no opinion
Depends
Yes
No, oppose
Actual Proportion - 2
Yes, support
No
Base All residents (1,021)
Base All respondents who support the idea (835)
66
Image of Local Government
Q How strongly do you agree or disagree that
your council . . .?
Agree
Disagree
My Council needs to make more effort to find out
what local people want
Quality of Council Services good overall
Treats all types of people fairly
Too remote and impersonal
Good value for money
Does not play important part in improving quality
of local life
Base 2,488 residents aged 16
67
Image of Local Government
Q How strongly do you agree or disagree that
your council . . .?
Agree
Disagree
My Council needs to make more effort to find out
what local people want
Quality of Council Services good overall
Treats all types of people fairly
Too remote and impersonal
Good value for money
Does not play important part in improving quality
of local life
Base 2,488 residents aged 16
68
Do Councillors listen to the public?
Local councillors make a real effort to listen
to the views of local people
Disagree
Agree
Councillors
Officers
Public
Base 198 Members, 113 Officers, c600 members of
the public
69
Out of touch?
Local councillors are out of touch with the
needs of local people
Disagree
Agree
Councillors
Officers
Public
Base 198 Members, 113 Officers, c600 members of
the public
70
Party before ward?
Local councillors put party politics before the
needs of local people
Disagree
Agree
Councillors
Officers
Public
Base 198 Members, 113 Officers, c600 members of
the public
71
Your Friendly Local Elected Mayor
72
Involvement depends on perceived relevance...
73
What do the BVPIs say?
Most need improving locally
Important generally
Base c.596,000 valid BVPI responses
74
Does Local equal Relevant?
75
Experience in my own area.
76
Key Points
77
Overall Key Drivers of Satisfaction
Quality of council services good overall
44 of satisfaction explained by model
20
Council delivers services efficiently
11
Council gives residents good value for money
10
General impression of services Value for money
and are key
8
Council treats all types of people fairly
Overall satisfaction with Council
6
Council takes residents views into account a
lot when making decisions
6
Satisfaction with opportunities for
participation in decision-making
5
Service satisfaction Control of development in
local area
5
Service satisfaction Street cleaning
Base All BV evaluation survey respondents
78
Key Issues

• Address the gap between overall perception and
  services
• Community leadership/LSPs
• Hard earned freedoms
• An Indian summer???
• Gershon and what next for council tax?
• Communications
• Good quality services and value
• Concentrate on Liveability
• But physical or social capital???
• Taking the politics out of involvement
• Rather than increasing loci for participation and
  involvement, need closer examination of why
  people do not participate in existing
  institutions
• How to convince people that alternative
  arrangements are any more worth engaging with
  than existing ones?
• Councillor as facilitator/trusted friend
• Not a politician?

79
Thanks for ListeningAny Questions?andrew.colling
e_at_mori.com