CSTAR 2

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CSTAR 2

• Improving Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting
  in the Southeast

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Gulf Coast Deep ConvectionForecast Implications
- Bosart

• WAA from latent heat builds downstream ridge
• Model sfc low too weak, too fast, too far east
• QPF spread northward too far, too fast
• Greater deformation aloft, pcpn banding NW

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Developing model-error precipitation climatologies

• What role does upstream deep convection play in
  model QPF errors?
• Compare large scale events with and without MCSs
  located upstream in the mean deep-layer flow,
  i.e. near the Gulf coast or in the coastal SC-GA
  Gulf Stream region.

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CSTAR 2Improving QPF in the Southeast

• Includes input from 8 NWSFOs
• Model error climatologies
• Research of QPF/QPE processes and potential error
  sources in NWP
• Integration of QPF/QPE findings with CAD and CF
  findings into the forecast process