National Strategic Agenda for Fire Loss Prevention

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• National Strategic Agenda for Fire Loss
  Prevention

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Agenda

• Purpose of the Forum (Web and Physical)
• Gap Production and Analysis Dont reinvent the
  wheel
• National Strategic Planning Process
• No Authoritative hammer to use on anyone
• Based on willingness to participate and move in
  productive directions
• Qualitative rather than quantitative in nature
• This will all feed into the physical forum in DC
• Steering Committee members
• Partial List of participants
• End Result will be plan on the move. Not in
  isolation so efforts need to be melded into
  existing efforts.

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Contents

• Part 1 Data Summary
• Part 2 Our Fire Prevention Legacy
• Part 3 Americas ChangingWhat lies ahead?
• Part 4 What are we doing that works?

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Part 1Data Summary What do we know about the
fire problem in the US?

• Using the basic four loss measures
• Fires
• Deaths
• Injuries
• Dollar Loss
• We have seen, with few exceptions, a continuing
  downward trend in both the count and rate of each
  measure. However, since the early 1990s, the
  slope of this trend has diminished.

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How does the United States Compare to other
Industrialized Nations?

• The United States continues to rank high in terms
  of
• Our fire death rate
• Direct and indirect losses due to fire ( GDP)
• Costs of Fire fighting Organizations ( GDP)
• Cost of Fire Insurance ( GDP)
• Cost of Fire Protection to buildings ( GDP)

Part1 Data Summary contd
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The Total Cost of Fire (2004)

• Property Loss
• 11.7 billion
• Down 35 since 1980 (adjusted to 2004 dollars)

Part1 Data Summary contd
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The Total Cost of Fire (2004)

• Total Cost of Fire Depts.
• 28.3 billion
• Up 117 since 1980 (adjusted to 2004 dollars)

Part1 Data Summary contd
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The Total Cost of Fire (2004)

• Insurance Coverage
• 16.2 billion
• up 72 since 1980 (adjusted to 2004 dollars)

Part1 Data Summary contd
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The Total Cost of Fire (2004)

• New Building Construction Costs for Fire
  Protection
• 41.3 billion
• up 70 since 1980 (adjusted to 2004 dollars)

Part1 Data Summary contd
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The Total Cost of FireIn Billions (2004)

• Human Losses 38.5
• The Monetary Value of Volunteer Firefighters is
  52 - 99 billion
• Total Cost of Fire 231 278 billion or
  approximately 2.5 of GDP
• Though the fire loss measures continue to trend
  downward, the total cost of fire has increased.
  This total cost exceeds all natural disasters
  combined each year.

Part1 Data Summary contd
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The who, what, when, where, how and why of fire
loss in the US

• Most deaths and injuries occur in residential 1
  2 family dwellings (risk of death is
  comparable in apartments)
• People under 5 and over 65 are at greater risk
  as are African and Native Americans.
• Two thirds of those who die however are between
  the

Part1 Data Summary contd
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The who, what, when, where, how and why of fire
loss in the US

• Deaths and injuries are distributed most heavily
  among males though this distribution shifts when
  we look at older adults.
• The number of incidents involving children
  playing with fire has shown significant
  declines.

Part1 Data Summary contd
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The who, what, when, where, how and why of fire
loss in the US

• Arson, heating, and smoking remain the leading
  causes of fire related deaths and injuries though
  their ranking changes depending upon age,
  property type, time of day and we have seen
  decade to decade shifts.
• Cooking is still the leading cause of fires in
  residential structures.

Part1 Data Summary contd
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The who, what, when, where, how and why of fire
loss in the US

• The southeast region remains an area of concern
  though in count, largely populated states such
  as CA, NY, and PA comprise a sizable number of
  deaths.
• Smoke alarms appear to be in more and more
  homes while sprinklers are in more and more
  commercial non-residential structures.

Part1 Data Summary contd
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The who, what, when, where, how and why of fire
loss in the US

• Because a fatal fire often combines the other
  three loss measures (dollar loss, fire, and
  potentially other injuries) these are the the
  worst fires in terms of total cost per fire
• The time of fatal fires is most often between
  12AM and 6AM while most fires occur sometime
  around dinner time as do many injuries.

Part1 Data Summary contd
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The who, what, when, where, how and why of fire
loss in the US

• Fatal fires are very seasonal with most
  occurring between December and March and tend
  to peak around the weekends.
• The fatality level of fires in manufactured
  housing is notable. At times running at the
  twice the level of other dwellings.

Part1 Data Summary contd
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Part 2Our Fire Prevention Legacy What Has Been
Said Previously About Fire Safety Prevention?

• Base upon our review of 13 documents, from 1913
  to 2002, that focused on the fire problem in the
  United States, it appears quite clear that the
  fire service does understand the tools available
  to it to continue the reduction of each of the
  four loss measures.

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Tools of the Trade Primary Fire Loss Measures
Addressed ()
Part 2 Our Legacy contd
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Tools Used in a Continuum

• The recommendations provided in the legacy
  documents implied that the tools would work best
  if connected.
• Infrastructure related recommendations aimed at
  optimizing the use of the various tools to
  provide a framework supporting the entire
  structure were mentioned most frequently.

Part 2 Our Legacy contd
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Part 3Americas Changing

• Population Change
• - All States will have more people
• - The west and south will see the most
  significant change
• With advances in medicine, a more active and
  healthy lifestyle, our baby boomers will live
  longer than previous generations
• We will become more racially and ethnically
  balanced

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Americas Changing

• CA, TX, FLA, GA, WA are among the states that
  will see considerable net (real) population
  growth (see map 1)
• In terms of growth, the SW and mountainous
  regions will see increases (see map 2)
• Growth in many areas north to northeast will be
  slower

Part 3 Americas Changing contd
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Net Population Change (map 1)
Part 3 Americas Changing contd
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Percent Population Change (map 2)
Part 3 Americas Changing contd
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The Baby Boomers

• While the proportion of youth decreases from 29
  to 27 over the next two decades, Americans 65
  and older will grow from 13 to 19
• Aging will occur primarily in the north with some
  west and southwest states being an exception (see
  map 3)
• The baby boomers will command considerably well
  organized social, economic, and political
  influence in this nation.

Part 3 Americas Changing contd
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Baby Boomers Change (map 3)
Part 3 Americas Changing contd
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Housing the The Baby Boomers

• Baby boomers will want to stay in place, move
  to the new suburbs, revitalized inner city
  areas, or retirement communities (depending upon
  their income)
• They will own their homes often living alone
• Many will move to the south and southwest
• They will push for expansion housing
  opportunities in areas and clash with smart
  growth policies, require inner city
  revitalization that may result in mixed-use
  occupancies, and possibly increase demand for
  manufactured housing.

Part 3 Americas Changing contd
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Immigrants

• New immigrants will move into gateway cities but
  are expected to move rapidly into the fringe
  areas of existing suburban areas
• The infilling of existing suburbs may stimulate
  the doubling or tripling of housing units in
  existing suburbs
• Researchers see a potential for continued
  clustering in areas by race.

Part 3 Americas Changing contd
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Politics and the Economy

• The nations transformation from an
  urban/manufacturing economy to new
  suburban/technology based economy will bring
  about political and social changes
• The public supported a more activist role for
  government, particularly in regulatory action, at
  the beginning of the 20th century. Today, that
  is no longer the case
• Public policies addressing housing, health care,
  entitlements, the environment, and infrastructure
  will result in increased competition for limited
  resources.

Part 3 Americas Changing contd
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Politics and the Economy

• There will be increased pressure to support
  private sector market based or public/private
  partnerships to remedy many issues
• We are likely to see the integration of land use
  regulations and housing policies
• The workforce, as a proportion of the entire
  population, will likely see slower growth as
  well as changes in the age of individuals in
  the labor market.

Part 3 Americas Changing contd
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Politics and the Economy

• In the short term at least we are likely to see
• A continued trade imbalance
• A widening of the budget deficit and national
  debt
• Slow growth in GDP
• Flattening productivity and wages as the nation
  attempts to move its labor force beyond reliance
  on lower skilled service sector jobs to higher
  paying more skilled service/technology jobs.

Part 3 Americas Changing contd
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Information Technology

• Use of the internet to exchange information will
  continue to grow (E-Parade is a classic example)
  as will web based reporting
• The use of GIS technology to
• assess both the populations served and the fire
  burden in a given area, to plan both operational
  and fire prevention strategies
• Sensors (battery and hardwired) for the detection
  of different types of fires. These may be worked
  into computerized home systems!

Part 3 Americas Changing contd
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Information Technology

• Systems that automatically shut off a stove top
  element reaching excessive temperatures
• RF tags to monitor victims injured in a fire

Part 3 Americas Changing contd
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Part 4What Are We Doing That Works?

• In looking at the tools we know are available to
  us, we can certainly conclude that attacking the
  fire has done the least to reduce fire deaths,
  injuries, and fires
• We can say that the development and use of fire
  codes/regulations have played a role in
  diminishing fire death, injury, and property loss
  in non-residential occupancies. These have
  included built-in protection systems aimed at
  both mitigating fire injury and death as well as
  fire suppression through sprinkler systems.

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Whats Working?

• Research indicates that the fire service prefers
  to deliver fire prevention/safety education and
  awareness programs in elementary schools though
  few report using a specific curricula such as
  Risk Watch, Learn Not To Burn, or other program
  developed by the NFPA, USFA, Home Safety Council,
  American Burn Association and others
• Anecdotally, the information provided by these
  organizations in combination with programs
  delivered to schools has likely contributed to a
  reduction in child fire deaths, injuries, and a
  decline in child fire setting.

Part 4 Whats Working contd
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Whats Working?

• The Fire Prevention Safety Grants have had
  demonstrated success when targeted and limited in
  scope to
• Canvassing and installing smoke detectors and
  batteries in residential dwellings with at risk
  residents
• Providing education focused on specific
  mitigation strategies such as planning your
  escape, use of extinguishers, having smoke
  alarms, etc.

Part 4 Whats Working contd
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Whats Working?

• The Fire Prevention Safety Grants have also
• Provided funding to national organizations to
  develop programs and make them accessible to the
  fire service, other organizations and the public
  in general
• In this way the NFPA, HSC, and others have
  developed an information infrastructure
  accessible to an increasing number of
  organizations and citizens.

Part 4 Whats Working contd
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Whats Working?

• The National Fire Data Center (USFA) and the NFPA
  in particular, through their research, have made
  demonstrable contributions to reducing fire
  losses by
• Establishing a uniform framework for
  understanding the fire burden in terms of the
  four loss measures, and
• A model that can, and is, used by the fire
  service at large to assess, target, and plan
  viable fire prevention and safety strategies.

Part 4 Whats Working contd
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Whats Missing? Needs Emphasis? What Doesnt Need
To Be Done
Part 4 Whats Working contd