Poli 103A: California Politics

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Poli 103A California Politics
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(No Transcript)
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The Progressive Legacy I Recall

• The Purpose Behind the Process
• All About Arnold
• Getting on the Ballot
• Campaign Finance
• Analyzing the Results
• Popular Feedback on Populism

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The Purpose Behind the Process

• A 1911 constitutional amendment pushed (along
  with initiative and referendum) by Gov. Hiram
  Johnson, the recall
• Was justified as a way to attack the graft and
  corruption of the time.
• Does not specify the type of misdeed that it
  punishes a recallable offense is whatever a
  majority says it is.

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The Purpose Behind the ProcessWall of Shame

• Targets of Progressive reformers
• Sen. Marshall Black (R-Santa Clara,1913)
• Sen. Edwin Grant (D-San Franciso, 1914)
• Casualties of the Speakership fight
• Assm. Paul Horcher (R-Los Angeles, 1995)
• Assm. Doris Allen (R-Orange, 1995)

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The Purpose Behind the Process

• To recall a statewide officer
• Gather signatures of registered voters equal in
  number to 12 of the last vote for that office.
• In five counties, gather signatures equal in
  number to 1 of that countys vote.
• To recall a legislator
• Equal in number to 20 of district vote.

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The Purpose Behind the ProcessThe Dual Ballot

• Yes or no vote on whether to recall the official
  in question.
• Takes a majority (50 1 vote) to win.

• All qualified replacement candidates appear on
  the same ballot.
• Only takes a plurality (most votes) to win.

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The Purpose Behind the Process

• The 135 replacement candidates got on the ballot
  with 65 signatures and 3500.

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All About ArnoldGetting on the Ballot

• Recall petitions have been circulated for every
  governor, but none had qualified till Davis.
• From Feb. 5th to April 24th, 2003, recall
  proponents collected about 100,000 signatures.
• They needed to collect 897,156 valid signatures
  within 160 days.

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All About ArnoldGetting on the Ballot

• Congressman Darrell Issa (R-Vista) decided to
  lend his considerable financial resources to the
  race on April 24th, and eventually gave 3
  million.
• I dont think we took it at all seriously until
  Darrell Issa gave the money. Davis advisor
  Steve Smith.
• July 841,000 voluntary signatures, 1,319,000
  through gatherers and mail.

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All About ArnoldCampaign Finance

• Unlike federal races, Californias campaigns used
  to have no limits on the size of contributions.
• Proposition 34 limited contributions to 21,200.
  Loopholes
• No limits on independent expenditures.
• Candidates allowed to shift funds raised in old
  days to new campaigns

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All About ArnoldCampaign Finance

• Davis advantage
• Technically, he was opposing an initiative, which
  cannot be corrupted, so contributions unlimited.
• Schwarzeneggers advantage
• Who needs contributions when youre rich? Gave
  himself 10 million and declared that he would
  arrive in Sacramento not owing anyone.

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All About Arnold80 Million in 77 Days
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All About ArnoldAnalyzing the Results

• Recall Ballot
• 61.2 turnout.
• Yes won with 55.4 of the vote.
• About a quarter of Democrats, 45 of Latinos, and
  48 of union members supported recall.

• Replacement Ballot
• Arnold won with 48.6 of the vote, a 17 margin
  of victory.
• He attracted 23 of Democrats and 31 of Latinos.

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All About Arnold Analyzing the ResultsDemocrats
Did Not Abandon Gray
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All About ArnoldParty Registration
Blue More than 54 Democratic Registration White
44-54 Democratic Red Less than 44 Democratic
Registration
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All About ArnoldSupport for the Recall
Blue Less than 50 Support for Recalling Gray
Davis White 50-65 Support Red More than 65
Support for Recalling Gray Davis
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All About Arnold Duvergers Law Kicks In

• Duvergers Law Because voters behave
  strategically, American-style races always come
  down to two parties/candidates.

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Legislative Effects of Executive ElectionNo
Direct Effects

• In 23 of the state Assembly districts held by
  Democrats, the recall won a majority of the vote.
• In the 2004 legislative elections, the Republican
  Party captured exactly zero of those seats.

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Legislative Effects of Executive
ElectionImportant Indirect Effects
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Popular Feedback on Populism

• Public Policy Institute of California poll

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Popular Feedback on Populism