Spring 2005 EMILY

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Spring 2005 EMILYs List Womens Monitor

• Women at the Centerof Political Change

GARINHARTYANG RESEARCH GROUP/THE FELDMAN GROUP,
INC
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Methodology

• In 1996, Emilys List Womens Monitor began
  tracking the role of women voters in federal
  elections this is the first Monitor of the 2006
  election cycle.
• Interviews were conducted May 18 26, 2005,
  among 2,613 voters nationwide, including 2,007
  women and 606 men. The margin of error is 1.9
  percentage points among the whole sample, and
  2.2 percentage points among women.
• The sample was drawn from DNC's Datamart, a
  national file of registered voters.

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16-Point Gender Gap InGeneric Congressional Vote
2006 Congressional Trial Heat
14-point gender gap in 2004 presidential election.
-5
11
All voters
Women
Men
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A Third Of Women 2004 Bush Voters Arent Voting
GOP For Congress
2006 Congressional Trial Heat among Women
2004 Kerry voters
2004 Bush voters
Will vote forRepublican
Other (2)/undecided
Other (1)/undecided
Will vote forDemocrat
Will vote for Republican
Will vote for Democrat
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Women Voters Among Whom GOP Has Lost The Most
Since 2004
GOPvotetoday -20 pts -18 pts -18 pts -18
pts -18 pts -18 pts -18 pts
2004Bushvoters 50 56 52 48 55 46 90
Prefer GOP for 2006 Congress 30 38 34 30 37
28 72
Key subgroups of women
Anti-intrusion social conservatives Non-college-ed
ucated whites Midwestern whites Catholics Married
whites/no childrenat home Women in the
middle Weak Republicans
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Women In The Middle

• Who they are 31 of the womens electorate
  whose views on issues make them the most
  cross-pressured part of the electorate.
• How they voted in 2004 Split evenly between
  Bush and Kerry, 46 to 46
• Where they are now supporting Democrats in the
  generic Congressional trial heat by 40 to 28

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Anti-Intrusion Social Conservatives

• Who they are 20 of the womens electorate who
  believe abortion should be legal only in rare
  circumstances, but who also believe government
  should not impose moral views on individuals
• How they voted in 2004 Voted for Bush over
  Kerry by 50 to 42
• Where they are now supporting Democrats in the
  generic Congressional trial heat by 38 to 30

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Why GOP Is Losing Ground With Women Direction Of
The Nation
These days, the country is pretty much heading

• Bush defectors say wrong track by 40 to 37
  right direction (voted 100 for Bush in 2004).
• Women in the middle say wrong track by 52 to
  30.
• Anti-intrusion social conser-vatives say wrong
  track by 53 to 29.

All women voters
In the right direction
Seriously off on the wrong track
Not sure
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Why GOP Is Losing Ground With Women The Agenda
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All Issues At Top Of Womens Agenda Produce A
Preference For Democrats
2006 Congressional Trial Heat among Womenby
volunteered issue concern
46
34
27
26
20
17
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Social Security
Situationin Iraq
Health care
Education
Economy
Prices/gas prices
Jobs
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Women Voters Pessimistic About Economic Future
Thinking about the strength of our countrys
economy
All women voters
Our best days are still ahead
Our best days are behind us
30 feel strongly
By 51 to 44, men believe the best days are
still ahead for the economy.
Not sure
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Why GOP Losing Ground w/WomenHit Them Before
They Hit Us Not Enough
Among all women
The best approach for the U.S. in fighting
terrorism is
Build strong alliances with other countries, and
promote democracy through leadership and diplomacy
Aggressively hunt down terrorists defeat them
before they can strike us
Bush defectors favor building alliances over
hunting down terrorists by 53 to 30
Both/neither/not sure
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Democrats Have Edge On Key Items Among Women In
The Middle
How much do you trust Democrats/Republicans on
each issue?
Democrats advantage 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2
0.9 0.9
Women in the middle
Social Security Protect environment Needs of
families health/education Know what I face in
making ends meet Economic opportunity Fiscal
responsibility Individual privacy Taxes
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Democrats Have Edge On Key Items Among Women In
The Middle
How much do you trust Democrats/Republicans on
each issue?
Democrats advantage 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 -0.1
Women in the middle
Support right justices for Supreme Court Right
approach on Iraq Solid/consistent
principles Represent my values Keep U.S. safe
from terrorism
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Why GOP Losing Ground w/WomenView Of Government
Role On Values
Which point of view do you agree with more?
Democraticwomen
Independentwomen
Republicanwomen
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Why GOP Losing Ground w/WomenView Of Stem Cell
Research
Which point of view do you agree with more?
Democraticwomen
Independentwomen
Republicanwomen
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Women Men Identify Different Roles/Values
Defining Their Lives
Taking care of the needs of other people is the
most important role that I play describes me
very well.
Women
Men
Rating of 5 on a five-point scale
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Values Landscape Not Enough For Democrats To
Stress Economy Over Morals
Which worries you more about the next generation?
- - - - - - - - - - - - Women swing voters - - -
- - - - - - - - -
Lean Republican
All women
Non-college-educated whites
Lean Democrat
Women inthe middle
Marriedmoms
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Values Landscape Among Women In Middle, Family
Is Key Personal Value
Selected most important values in my personal life
Women leaning Democratic 33 19 35 42 33 6 6
Women leaning GOP 39 53 31 10 8 10 20
Women in the middle
Importance of family Religious faith Personal
accountability Caring about people in need, less
fortunate Equal opportunity, fair chance for
all Patriotism Respect for right to life
Family is number one among married women under
40 (55) and married moms (50).
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Values Landscape Women Have Different
Expectations Of Leaders Accountability Tops
Most important values(among all women)
Importance of family Religious faith Personal
accountability Caring about people in need, less
fortunate Equal opportunity, fair chance for
all Respect for right to life Patriotism
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Values Landscape Personal Responsibility Vital,
But Women Highlight Community
Government and elected leaders should emphasize
values of
Among all women
Community people looking out for each other
Individual responsibility and self-reliance
Men emphasize personal accountability over
community by 48 to 40
Both/neither/not sure
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Looking Forward

• Democrats have an enormous opportunity to expand
  their support among women voters, but they
  havent yet closed the deal.
• Women are pessimistic about the economy and
  Democrats must offer them hope, but economic
  messages alone will not win women voters.
  Values, especially those revolving around family
  and community, must be part of the dialogue.
• Democrats can address Republicans overreaching
  on issues of intrusion by demonstrating their
  respect for family privacy.