BILL McINTURFF

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A publication of Public Opinion Strategies that
monitors the shifting of American attitudes
A Look At What Happened
In The 2004 Election
NOVEMBER, 2004
BILL McINTURFF
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(No Transcript)
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Methodology
Acknowledgements to Pfizer for allowing us to use
their national political data for this
presentation.
Data from the following surveys were used in this
presentation

• Public Opinion Strategies/Pfizer national
  election night surveys
• 1400 actual voters with a margin of error of
  2.6.
• 600 actual voters with a margin of error of
  4.0.
• Public Opinion Strategies conducted election
  night interviews in six of the key battleground
  states (Florida, Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio,
  Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin).

• The National Election Pool exit poll
• 13,660 respondents

• The NBC/Wall Street Journal National Poll
• Conducted October 29-31, 2004 among 1,014
  registered voters with a margin of
  error of 3.1.

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National Political Landscape
Update
2004 ELECTION
SLIDE 4
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Understanding the 2004 presidential election

• Awash with money
• An engaged electorate
• Terrorism, Iraq, and a broader concern about
  securitythe dominant issues of this campaign
• The economy faded as an issue in October
• Extreme levels of partisan intensity/turn-out
  equal by party
• Unprecedented direct voter contact
• An underlying stable political geography

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Awash with money
700,000,000 to 800,000,000 of Presidential TV
advertising
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Awash with money
Public Opinion Strategies conducted election
night interviews in six of the key battleground
states (Florida, Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio,
Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) and asked the
following open-end question
Now, thinking about some of the television
advertising you have seen during this
campaign...either for...Kerry or for Bush...what
was the most memorable TV ad you saw? In other
words, what ad most stuck out or what ad do you
remember the most?
Bottom Line Heres the advertising people in
these key battleground states
remembered
Swift Boat Vets
Ashley's Story
Wolves
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An engaged electorate
An engaged and interested electorate produced the
highest total vote cast in American history and
the highest percent of turn-out since 1968.
Percent 10 Very Interested In The Election
74
71
63
55
48
43
37
Oct 1996
Oct 1998
Oct 2000
Oct 2002
Feb 2004
Sept 2004
Oct 2004
Non- Presidential Election Year
Presidential Election Year
Public Opinion Strategies and NBC/WSJ National
Polls
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Terrorism, Iraq, and a broader concern about
security
Heres todays emerging conventional wisdom

• President Bush won because of moral values and
  the impact of the gay marriage issue on turn-out
  of his base voters.
• This argument is not without merit. There is no
  question President Bushs margin of victory is
  based on the margin by which he carried White
  evangelical/born-again Christians.
• But, this misses the broader context of the 2004
  election This was our first presidential
  election post-9/11 and it was focused on the
  issue of security. President Bushs margin over
  Senator Kerry on how much confidence you have in
  who would do a better job protecting the United
  States and responding to terrorist threats is a
  critical sub-text to the presidents victory.

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Terrorism, Iraq, and a broader concern about
security
The electoral math is simpler than you might
think. At the end of day, Bush's base simply
outperformed Kerry's base. No fuzzy math here.
Percent of
Margin of
Contribution
the 2004
Victory
To Total Net Margin
Electorate
(
Bush
/
Kerry
)
(
Bush
/
Kerry
)
Bush's Base Supporters
White Evangelicals/ Born again Christians
23
57
13.1
Kerry's Base Supporters
Non-White Voters
22
45
9.9
45

3.2
TOTAL PERCENT OF ELECTORATE
BUSH BALLOT EDGE



Bush Kerry essentially split the rest (55) of
the white electorate.
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Terrorism, Iraq, and a broader concern about
security
But this was more importantly a security
election. Public Opinion Strategies election
night interviews allow people to volunteer the
one or two most important issues deciding their
vote. The results are telling.
Iraq Negative 20 War on terror 13 Iraq
positive 11 National/Homeland Security
11 Foreign Policy/ National Defense 6
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Terrorism, Iraq, and a broader concern about
security
In an election dominated by security concerns,
President Bush enjoyed a crushing margin over
Senator Kerry on the issue of handling terrorism.
Confidence in responding to terrorist threats
NBC/WSJ National Poll, Oct., 2004
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Terrorism, Iraq, and a broader concern about
security

• The NBC/Wall Street Journal fall tracking and the
  National Election Pool exit poll again suggest
  the primacy of security concerns. On election
  day, terrorism (19) and Iraq (15) eclipsed
  economic concerns (economy 20/ taxes 5) and
  moral values (22) as the issues that decided
  peoples vote.

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Terrorism, Iraq, and a broader concern about
security
Terrorism/Iraq are the combined most important
issue set of 2004.
National Election Pool exit poll
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The economy faded as an issue in October
The economy faded as an issue in October, but
overall ended up in relatively decent shape.
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Extreme levels of partisan intensity
Intense partisan commitment meant less
decision-making at the end.
Public Opinion Strategies tracks
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Extreme levels of partisan intensity
George W. Bush won this election by totally
consolidating his base
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Extreme levels of partisan intensity
and by changing the composition of the
electorate on Election Day.
National Election Pool exit poll
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Extreme levels of partisan intensity
But, President Bush also improved his margins
among key swing voter sub-groups...
National Election Pool exit poll
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Unprecedented direct voter contact
WOW! A 1.2 billion dollar campaign helped fund
the most extensive voter outreach effort in
modern political times.
Pfizer National Survey
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Unprecedented direct voter contact
and helped contribute to a surge of early
voting, which on balance, favored Bush.
Public Opinion Strategies tracks
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An underlying stable political geography
The 2004 version of the red states vs. blue
states map.
27
7
VT 20
21
8
27
4
3
1
38
0
MA 25
21
17
RI 21
40
3
CT 10
2
1
34
NJ 6
3
2
DE 8
10
21
44
6
13
10
26
MD 13
9
7
20
DC 80
13
14
31
11
1
10
18
17
26
20
15
23
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George W. Bush Margin


John Kerry Margin
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An underlying stable political geography
When the dust settles, 1.2 billion dollars was
spent for a net margin shift of 8,103 votes.
The Bush versus Gore/Kerry Margin In The Three
States That Changed Hands
NH
2000 -4,130 2004 14,045
IA
2000 -366 2004 6,153
2000 7,282 2004 -9,309
NM
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An underlying stable political geography
Thirty-six states, representing 68 of the
electoral vote, were carried by more than five
points in both the last two elections.
Margin 2000
Margin 2004
of Votes
of Votes
16.3
19.3
5,532,216
7,539,796
2.4
5.9
396,340
1,189,216
3.5
3.2
631,987
664,838
17.1
13.0
5,843,086
4,677,739
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An underlying stable political geography
Bush increased his winning percent from 2000 in
four of the six Bush Little states
AR 4
FL 5
MO 4
TN 11
and he increased his percent of the vote
significantly in several Big Gore/Kerry states
CT 7
HI 10
DE 6
NJ 10
NY 8
RI 8
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An underlying stable political geography
A county-by-county look at the electoral map
Blaine County, Idaho Home of John Kerrys Sun
Valley Ski Chalet
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An underlying stable political geography
Viewing the county map as a cartogram rescales
the counties according to their population. The
cartogram gives a different picture of a divided
country. Hint But theres still 159.2 million
people in the Bush counties versus the 130.9
million in the Kerry counties.
University of Michigan
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An underlying stable political geography
This map shows the purple counties that were
more closely divided.
Counties won by less than 5 percentage points
Bush 164 Kerry 146
Princeton University
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For more information about this presentation or
about Public Opinion Strategies, please give us
a call.
Bill McInturff
Partner
e-mail bill_at_pos.org / phone [phone]
277 South Washington St., Suite 320 Alexandria,
Virginia 22314 Phone [phone] Fax (703)
836-8117
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