Science Policy, Budgets and Politics: What the Future May Hold

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Science Policy, Budgets and Politics What the
Future May Hold Michael S. Lubell Chairman,
Physics Department CCNY, New York,
NY and Director of Public Affairs American
Physical Society, Washington, DC BESAC
Meeting, December 6, 2004
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Lessons from the Election

• The Five Hot Issues Based on Exit Polls
• Terrorism Bush
• Iraq War Bush/Kerry
• Economy and Jobs Bush/Kerry
• Health Care Kerry
• Moral Values Bush, Bush, Bush
• Post Election Issues Poll Results
• National Security
• Domestic Issues Economy, Jobs, Education, Health
• Moral Values 25!!!

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Sciences Image

• Elitist
• Arrogant
• Liberal
• Democrat
• Out of Touch with Middle America
• Enemy of the Bush Administration Cuts Both Ways

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Science the Enemy of the Bush Administration

• Kyoto Protocols
• ABM Treaty
• Stem Cell Research
• Evolution vs. Creationism
• The Union of Concerned Scientists Reports
• Scientists for Change

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Building Bridges

• To the Public
• More than 85 percent of people polled believe
  that science is beneficial
• But only 20 percent people polled name jobs and
  the economy as a principal benefit
• Fewer than 10 percent can name any place where
  research is performed

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Building Bridges

• To the White House
• Repair the damage
• Speak the language
• Engage industrial allies
• Encourage conservative scientists to speak out

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The Budgetary Challenges

• Structural deficit (FY04 413 b unified 575 b
  on-budget)
• Historic current accounts deficit (50 b/mo 5.6
  of GDP)
• Foreign ownership of federal debt (92 during
  last 4 yrs)
• The sinking dollar
• Entitlement pressures Social Security
  Medicare
• Tax cuts
• Iraq war
• Homeland security

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Timeline for the FY 2007 Budget

• Spring 2005 OMB Guidance to Agencies
• Summer 2005 Agency Planning
• Sept. 2005 Agency Requests Submitted to OMB
• Thanksgiving 2005 OMB Pass Backs Sent to
  Agencies
• Jan. 2006 Presidential Request Finalized
• Monday, Feb. 6, 2006 Presidential Budget
  Submitted to Congress
• April 15, 2006 Budget Resolution Passed by
  Congress Or Not!
• Spring and Summer 2006 13 Appropriations Bills
  Passed by House
• Spring and Summer 2006 13 Appropriations Bills
  Passed by Senate
• Summer 2006 13 Appropriations Bills Conferenced
• Sept. 30, 2006 13 Appropriations Bills Passed
  and Signed into Law
• Oct. 1, 2006 Start of FY 2007

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The Inside Story of the FY 05 Budget

• DOE Champions Hobson, Visclosky, Biggert,
  Domenici, Reid, Alexander, Bingaman
• The NSF Squeeze Veterans and Moon-Mars
• Evils and Benefits of an Omnibus Bill

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Science Messages

• Economic Growth and Jobs
• Competitiveness
• National Security
• Health Care
• High Tech Workforce

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Benchmarking the Future

• Patents
• High-Tech Industry Output
• R D Spending
• Publications
• Student Enrollments

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Physics Review Submissions
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Graduate Students in Engineering, Physical
Sciences, Math Computer Sciences in U.S.
Institutions
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Students and Federal Funding
80000
180000
160000
70000
Dollars
140000
60000
120000
50000
100000
40000
Federal RD, M , Non-Biomed (Constant 1996
Dollars)
Bachelors Degrees in Physical Sciences, Math and
Engineering
80000
Students
30000
60000
20000
40000
Mayo, Bruggeman, and Sargent (2002)
10000
20000
0
0
1955
1960
1965
1975
1985
1995
1970
1980
1990
2000
Year
Budget Data Table D in National Patterns of
Research and Development Resources 2000 Data
Update (NSF Pub 01-309), National Science
Foundation, Arlington, VA. Also, the NIH Almanac
(NIH Pub. 01-5), National Institutes of Health,
Bethesda, MD, 2001.
Student Data Science and Engineering Degrees
1966-1998 (NSF Pub 01-325), National Science
Foundation, Arlington, VA, 2001. Pre-1966 data
Science and Engineering Degrees 1950-80. A
Source Book. Special Edition. National Science
Foundation, Arlington, VA, 1982.
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What can we do?

• Engage the public all elements
• Get political both parties
• Use our power in numbers were very large