DIMEPMESII TOOLS: Past, Present and Future

1
DIME/PMESII TOOLSPast, Present and Future

• Dean Hartley

January 21, 2008
2
Why DIME/PMESII Tools?

• The U.S. has, is, and will engage in operations
  (including shaping) for which combat Measures of
  Merit (MOMs) are insufficient
• At the policy level
• Need to understand what operations might be
  needed
• Need to understand what such operations would
  entail
• Military force structure
• Non-military (State Dept, NGO, IO, UN, etc.)
  resources
• Procedures, strategies, tactics, etc.
• Costs
• MOMs
• At the Strategic/Operational/Tactical levels
• All of the above, with more detail
• Need to define and perform training and education
• It starts with defining the operations
• Nature and size will depend on the situation
• Nature of each will include one or more (likely
  more than one) of the following types of
  operations (old OOTW categorization)

3
Operations Other Than War (OOTW) Taxonomy
4
What are DIME/PMESII Tools?

• DIME/PMESII tools are those that support MOMs
  such as
• Stability
• Peacefulness
• Support for U.S. interests
• Freedom
• Economic security
• These (and other similar) MOMs require
  information on the situation
• P Political state variables
• M Military state variables
• E Economic state variables
• S Societal state variables
• I Information state variables
• I Infrastructure state variables
• Changing the values of the MOMs requires the
  application of
• D Diplomatic interventions
• I Information interventions
• M Military interventions
• E Economic interventions
• The tools must include the interactions among
  these variables

5
Tool Dimensions

• Time Frame - Timing/Urgency
• Purpose Dimension - End Use
• Planning
• Deliberate
• Crisis
• Analysis
• Operations
• Training
• Application Dimension - Type of Activity
• Impact Evaluation
• Mission Planning
• Data/Information Development, Situation Awareness
• User Dimension - Who Needs It?
• J-8/OSD
• CINCs
• Services
• Non-DoD
• Technique Dimension - Type of Tool
• Simulation Oriented

6
Deliberate Planning/Analysis-Oriented Tool Needs
Mission Definition Tool
Resource Evaluation
JWARS
Task Analysis Tool
Instability Prediction Tool
MRM
ACTOR
Force Design Tool
Integrated Mission
Planning Tool
Impact Evaluation
Impact Simulation
CAPS
FAST / SEAS / COMPOEX
Logistics Tool
JEB
Disaster Evaluation Tool
ISSM
Transport Tool
CATS
Data Warehouse
CFAST
Cost Tool
Communication Evaluation Tool
Information Tools
COST
LLIW/EBB
Simulation Orientation
Non-Simulation Orientation
7
DIME/PMESII Tool Dimensions (4 of 5)
ACTOR
FAST / SEAS / COMPOEX
ISSM
8
DIME/PMESII TOOLS

• Status in 1998-99

9
1998 Partial List of 130 Tools (PACOM
OSD/PAE)Most with only slight value for OOTW
10
Example OUSD(C) Costing Tool (Built)

• Contingency Operational Support Tool (COST) Built
  ca. 1998-99
• Requirements for Costing Tool
• Incremental costs of notional OOTWs, to support
  long-term analysis
• Generic types of operations, represented by a few
  cost drivers
• COST not designed for this, but could support
• Probable incremental costs, to support decision
  to engage in a particular OOTW
• Complete cost model, permitting iterative
  refinements
• COST meets the requirement
• Relative (full) costs, to support the selection
  of mission plan
• Support comparison of costs of alternative COAs
• COST would require modifications to permit
  selection of full costs
• Costs incurred, to support recovery from other
  agencies and govts
• Ensure all recoverable costs are identified
• COST would require modification with database of
  allowed categories
• Incremental costs of a particular OOTW, to
  support Congressional budget process
• Ensure long-term operations are correctly
  budgeted
• COST should support this at FOC
• Cumulative costs of a particular operation
• Ensure capture of costs of replacing lost
  capabilities

11
Example Integrated Mission Planning (Conceptual)
12
DIME/PMESII TOOLS

• Status in 2008

13
2008 Partial List of 118 ToolsMost with
moderate value for DIME/PMESII
14
Trends in DIME/PMESII Tools

• In 1998
• Most of the tools were dual-use
• Designed for combat, but could be used, e.g.,
  logistics tools
• However, even they were often wrong-direction
  compute tail given tooth, rather than compute
  tooth given tail
• Early databases existed, supporting warnings,
  e.g., ACTOR, ALADUN, FEW, GEDS, HEWS, KEDS,
  NEAR-TERM FORECITE, PANDA, PERICLES, but were not
  widely used
• There were some special application tools,
  counter-drug, intel, and disaster models
• There were a few potentials CarePlan, DEXES/CAM,
  GCAM, RDSS, SIAM, Spectrum, SWARM, but not widely
  used
• In 2008
• The dual-use tools are still there
• The databases and warning systems are still there
• But, there are several full featured simulation
  tools COMPOEX, FAST Toolbox (DIAMOND-US, ISSM,
  etc.), SEAS, SENSE, with usage histories
• And there are now agent-based models Agile,
  Mana, NetLogo, PAX, PMFServ, Pythagoras,
  Senturion, Socrates, StarLogo, with usage
  histories and people who know how to create
  useful DIME/PMESII tools
• And there are tool-creating technologies beyond
  agent-based models, e.g., Systems Dynamics, with
  usage histories
• Finally, we are beginning to get traction in the
  non-DoD world State Department, social sciences

15
Historical Developments
Academic Interest
Early DoD Interest
Increasing DoD Interest Beginning State
Dept Interest
16
DIME/PMESII TOOLS

• Future

17
Where Do We Go From Here?

• Increase and codify our knowledge
• What are the tools we have good for?
• What are the things we want to do that we cant
  do or cant do easily?
• What do we know how to do, but havent done yet?
• What are the things we dont know how to do or
  dont know how to do well?
• How do we learn how to do these things?
• Perform VVA on existing tools
• This generates knowledge on the first two
  questions
• It also supplies some clues on the second two
  questions
• Hold workshops
• Include military personnel (the bulk of the
  current consumers)
• Include other governmental personnel (future
  consumers)
• Include academics (knowledge base)
• Include contractors (the bulk of the tool
  builders)
• Organize to address the questions (if you dont
  ask, dont expect answers)
• Build more tools
• Duplication is not bad when you dont know very
  much (think of fly-offs)
• Use multiple structures (System Dynamics,
  agent-based, discrete event simulation,
  spreadsheets, checklists, etc.)
• Use multiple social theories (who knows which one
  is better?)

18
From the hills of East Tennessee
Questions?

• Dean Hartley
• Hartley Consulting
• DSHartley3_at_comcast.net