ASM, RPM

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TravelForecast Intelligence.com
ASM, RPM Enplanements
ATA reported November RPMs -11.2 year-over-year
with enplanements -13.1 near the mid-point of
our forecasted range. Based on the historical
relationship between DOT and ATA statistics,
October enplanements as reported by the DOT will
likely decline -5.5 to -6.5 YoY and November
will decline approximately -10. Based on
preliminary data, December RPM YoY change
represented the best month since Sep-08, but
declined -4.6.
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TravelForecast Intelligence.com
Revenue Passenger Miles
International revenue passenger miles declined
for the fourth consecutive month through December
at -4.0, while December domestic enplanements
declined -4.9.
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3
TravelForecast Intelligence.com
Enplanements
Airline enplanements continue to trend negative
with eight of eleven months through November
exhibiting negative growth. February growth of
3.9 was inflated by the leap year impact.
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TravelForecast Intelligence.com
Enplanements v. RPMs
Enplanement year over year percentage change is
consistently 1 to 2 percentage points worse than
RPM year over year growth.
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5
TravelForecast Intelligence.com
Enplanements DOT v. ATA
DOT enplanement year over year change was
consistently 1 to 2 points better than ATA
reported year over year change (due to smaller
sample set). However, from the Aug. to Oct. 08
period the gap between DOT and ATA has narrowed
to less an 1 percentage point.
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