Biomass potentials

1
Biomass potentials supplies- Lecture part I
for Bioenergy Theory and Applications"  at
Helsinki University of Technology, Laboratory of
Applied Thermodynamics, October 6, 2005,
Helsinki-Finland-

• André Faaij
• Copernicus Institute - Utrecht University

2
Contents part I - IV.

• Biomass potentials, from global to regional
  supplies.
• Conversion technologies
• Logistics, scaling issues, chain performance and
  optimisation.
• Greenhouse gas balances, impacts and
  sustainability criteria

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Why biomass?

• Renewable
• Versatile
• Low(er) cost
• Widespread
• Potential
• external
• benefits()

4
Renewable energy in the EU
Total primary energy consumption EU-15 60,800 PJ
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Electricity from renewables EU-15
6
Development over time

• National programmes predominate (e.g. over 80 of
  RDD funds)
• Complemented by EC role of EC growing stronger.
• Since 80-ies RDD programmes
• Policy papers (white green) targets.
• Directives (Electricity, Fuels)

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Results

• Heat In 1990 the production of heat from biomass
  1500 PJth to over 1800 PJth in 1999 (2 per
  year).
• Electricity 54 PJe in 1990 to 166 PJe in 1999
  (9 per year).
• Biofuels Currently 25 PJfuel.
• Biodiesel80 ktonne in 1993 to 780 ktonnes in
  2001. (Germany and France).
• Ethanol 48 up to 216 ktonne in the same period.
  (France, Spain and Sweden)

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Future worlds energy supply(combined with 80
reduction of GHG-emissions)
Courtesy of IIASA
Courtesy of Shell
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energy consumption
population
trade
future land use patterns
biotechnology
POTENTIAL FOR BIO-ENERGY?
GDP
agricultural system irrigation, breeding,
mechanization, chemicals
agricultural policy
land productivity
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Key elements for assessing future bioenergy
potentials (bottom-up approach)
Source Smeets, Faaij 2004
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Global land surface and main land use categories
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Potential spread in the global demand for food
(2050)
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(Energy) efficiency of food production world
wide(Wirsenius - Chalmers University, Sweden)
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B1-2010
Source Hoogwijk, Faaij 2004
Integrated assessment modelling using IMAGE
(RIVM) for assessing land-use and production
potentials of biomass for energy
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B1 2020
Source Hoogwijk, Faaij 2004
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B1 2030
Source Hoogwijk, Faaij 2004
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B1 2040
Source Hoogwijk, Faaij 2004
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B1 2050
Source Hoogwijk, Faaij 2004
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A2 2050
Source Hoogwijk, Faaij 2004
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A1 2050
Source Hoogwijk, Faaij 2004
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B2 2050
Source Hoogwijk, Faaij 2004
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B1 2050
Source Hoogwijk, Faaij 2004
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Basics energy crop options (EU)
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Miscanthus - different genotypes
C4 photosynthetic pathway
Miscanthus sacchariflorus
Miscanthus x giganteus
Miscanthus sinensis hybrid
Miscanthus sinensis
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Bioenergy production potential in 2050 for
different scenarios
Source Smeets, Faaij 2004
Potential Oceania 4-6 times projected primary
energy use
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Global cost-supply curve for energy crops for
four scenarios for the year 2050
Source Hoogwijk, Faaij, 2004
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Overall picture 2050
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Essentials of future global biomass
availability...

• Major contribution of bio-energy to global energy
  supply possible.
• But major transitions required to exploit
  potentials.
• Improved food production systems rate of
  deployment in DCs are essential.
• Use of marginal/degraded land biomaterials.
• (Net) biomass supply per region strongly
  determined by local factors large differences
  between regions.

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Phases in bio-energy use and market development

• Waste treatment and process residues use on
  site, low costs.
• Local use of (more expensive) forest and
  agricultural residues some infrastructure
  development.
• Regional biomass markets, larger scale
  utilisation, increasingly complex logistics
  supportive policies needed.
• National markets with complex set of suppliers
  and buyers often increased availability.
• Increasing scale, cross-border flows role for
  cultivated biomass bilateral activities.
• Global commodity market pricing mechanisms
  complex interlinkages with existing markets
  (food, forestry, feedstocks)?

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International bio-energy markets developing fast

• Growing bio-energy demand and international
  supply chains create unique opportunities for
  biomass producing regions.
• Solid biofuels trading develops in bilateral
  setting (Canada, Russia, agricultural residues)
  bio-ethanol entered first phases commodity market
  trading wild west phase
• Overexploitation should be avoided and fairtrade
  principles implemented.
• www.fairbiotrade.org (IEA Task 40 on Sustainable
  International Bio-energy Trade).

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Biomass potentials in CEEC Main characteristics
of scenarios
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Amount of available land (in 1000 ha) on country
level for energy crop production for different
scenarios
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Amount of available land (in 1000 ha) in Poland
for energy crop production for different
scenarios
20000
Land suitability
Extensive
17500
mMS (marginally suitable)
MS (moderately suitable)
15000
S (suitable)
VS (very suitable)
12500
1000 ha
10000
7500
5000
2500
0
V1
V2
V3
V4
V5
Scenarios
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Variation in total available land (and NS land)
for crop production between different production
systems
1) Low input system, 2)
Intensive system, 3) Intensive system,
rain fed
rain fed including
irrigation
Land available for energy crop production
Land required for food production
Total NS land
Total NS land
Total NS land
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Land available for the production of energy crops
in all CEEC in 2030in 1 000 000 ha
V1 V2 V3 V4 V5
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Biomass potential on country level (in EJ). Sum
of residues, surplus forest and energy crops,
energy crop is willow. The lines in the graphs
show the current final energy consumption on
country level in EJ for the year 2000 from DG
Tren (2003).
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Cost assessment
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Production costs for poplar
Total production costs, differentiated to cost
items, in Poland for poplar production in / ha
yr and / GJ HHV for different scenarios and
land suitability types.
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Cost-supply curve for all CEEC energy crop
willow