World Energy and Environmental Outlook to 2030

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World Energy and Environmental Outlook to 2030

• Dr. Fatih Birol
• Chief Economist
• Head, Economic Analysis Division

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Global Energy and Environmental Trends -
Reference Scenario -
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World Primary Energy Demand
Oil
Natural gas
Coal
Other renewables
Nuclear power
Hydro power
Fossil fuels account for almost 90 of the growth
in energy demand between now and 2030
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Increase in World Primary Energy Production by
Region
Almost all the increase in production to 2030
occurs outside the OECD
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Per Capita Primary Energy Use, 2030
Per capita energy use remains much lower in
developing countries
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Electricity Deprivation
In 2030, if no major new policies are
implemented, there will still be 1.4 billion
people without electricity.
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World Energy-Related CO2 Emissions
Global emissions grow 62 between 2002 2030,
and developing countries emissions will overtake
OECDs in the 2020s
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CO2 Emissions by Sector,1990-2030
CO2 emissions in power generation and transport
are expected to increase the most
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Growth in World Energy Demandand CO2 Emissions
2.5
2.0
1.5
average annual growth rate
1.0
0.5
0.0
1971-2002
2002-2030
Average carbon content of primary energy
increases slightly through 2030 in contrast to
past trends
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World AlternativePolicy Scenario
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World Alternative Policy Scenario

• Analyses impact of new environmental
  energy-security policies worldwide
• OECD Policies currently under consideration
• Non-OECD Also includes more rapid declines in
  energy intensity resulting from faster deployment
  of more-efficient technology
• Impact on energy, CO2 emissions investment
  needs
• Basic macroeconomic population assumptions as
  for Reference Scenario, but energy prices change

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Net Natural Gas Imports, 2030
Net gas imports are lower in all major importing
regions, except China
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OECD CO2 Emissions in the Reference and
Alternative Scenarios
OECD CO2 emissions peak around 2020 25 higher
than in 1990
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Contributory Factors in CO2 Reduction 2002-2030
Improvements in end-use efficiency contribute for
more than half of decrease in emissions, and
renewables use for 20
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Difference in Electricity Investment in the
Alternative vs. Reference Scenario 2003-2030
1 000
500
0
billion dollars (2000)
- 500
-1 000
-1 500
-2 000
Additional investments on the demand side are
more than offset by lower investment on the
supply side
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Summary Conclusions

• On current policies, world energy needs and CO2
  emissions will be 60 higher in 2030 than now
• Policies under consideration faster deployment
  of technology could substantially save energy and
  reduce emissions
• Larger capital needs on the demand side would be
  entirely offset by lower investment needs on the
  supply side
• Truly sustainable energy system will call for
  faster technology development deployment
• Urgent decisive government action is needed