Dr. Alexey Gromov

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World Energy - 2050
Dr. Alexey Gromov Deputy General Director
Institute for Energy Strategy Moscow, Russia

• The 6TH Civilization Forum within the UN
  Conference on Sustainable Development RIO 20
• Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, June 15, 2012

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The goals and tasks of the study
Our goal is comprehensive, long-term and
non-inertial forecast of world energy development
in the light of revealed today energy and
technological trends, the relationship of
economy, energy and society, and the likely
recurrence of crises before 2050
The probability of breaking up of current trends
and profound changes in the global energy mix may
have a powerful impact on the Russian economy and
energy sector through the situation on foreign
markets and energy technologies
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New global challenges and risks
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Comparison with forecasts of other research
organisations
Consensus forecast ofenergy future
forecasts High uncertaintyWorld consumption of
primary energy 19.5-22.5 billion toe in 2050
Proportions of the consumption of coal and
gas from 2.51 by Shell to 12.5 by IEA The
share of nuclear energy from 3.7 to
15.1 Reducing the share of oil from 35 to 25
The growth of biomass consumption from 7.4 to
15 Increase in the share of RES from 6 to
17-22
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Global primary energy consumption by 2050, bln toe
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Methodology
The scenario is the assemblage point of
demographic, economic, technological, political,
social, cultural, environmental and energy
trendsNot just an extrapolation of existing
trends, but analysis of conflicts between them
and the assessment of the prospects of their
breakup
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Cyclical crises as a point of scenario
bifurcation
Global primary energy consumption, bln toe
Continuation of the pre-crisis growth path
Crisis of the 2010th
Crisis of the 1970th
Crisis of the 1930th
Inhibition of growth and stagnation
Fact
Oil
Gas nuclear
Electric World Renewables
Coal
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• Key characteristics of the scenariosin the World
  Energy - 2050

Reference scenario Stagnation scenario Innovative scenario
Energy-intensive Energy-saving Energy-efficient
Carbon-intensive Renewables and gas Renewables and nuclear
Geopolitical rivalry and economic competition Global climate and energy policy The innovative competition and technology
Complex regionalization of economy and energy sector Slowing globalization Resource globalization and technological globalization
High growth of global primary energy consumption Slowing growth of global primary energy consumption Shift from commodities market to the services and technologies market
High oil prices and heyday of oil business The stagnation of oil business The sunset of oil business
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• ????????????? ?????????????
• Strategies of countries will be determined by
  different speed of transition to an innovative
  energy sector
• World will split into innovative energy zone and
  traditional fuel energy zone
• The innovative competition

Russia needs to develop its own advanced strategy
taking into account the energy agenda of 2050
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Key findings
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By 2030 the peak of global industrialization will
be passed
Global primary energy consumption, bln toe
Primary energy consumption in China, bln toe
The gap between the western way of development
and the possible way of China
Fact
Reference scenario
Stagnation scenario
Innovative scenario
Proximity of scenarios due to compensation of GDP
growth by increasing energy efficiency
Fact OECD Reference scenario, OECD Stagnation
scenario, OECD Innovative scenario, OECD
Fact non-OECD Reference scenario,
non-OECD Stagnation scenario, non-OECD Innovative
scenario, non-OECD
Source WEO 2010, Chinas Energy and Carbon
Emissions Outlook to 2050, Institute of Energy
Strategy
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Shift in the global energy mix to local fuels
2050, Innovative scenario
Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass Large
hydro Renewables
2050, Stagnation scenario
2050, Reference scenario
bln toe

• By 2050 global primary energy consumption will
  rise 1.2-1.6 times
• The share of RES in the structure of the global
  energy mix will reach 10 - 34
• The share of oil will drop to 29-16, an
  absolute reduction is possible
• Gas consumption will grow
• High uncertainty about nuclear power remains

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World energy sector will shift to resource
regionalization and technological globalization
Share of international trade share in global
consumption

• The peak of international trade share in global
  energy consumption will be passed by 2030
• In place of the now dominant resource
  globalization will come resource regionalization
  
• A fundamental factor in the resource
  regionalization will be the shift in energy mix
  to local fuels, including renewables
• With the resource regionalization will increase
  the importance of technological and
  organizational globalization

Reference scenario, oil Reference scenario,
gas Stagnation scenario, oil Stagnation scenario,
gas Innovative scenario, oil Innovative scenario,
gas
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Shift from power energy to smart energy
The shift from energy commodities market to the
energy services and technologies market
Energy commodities market 2010
Energy service market 2030
Energy technology market 2050
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• The end of oil era is possible

Oil consumption, mln t
2050, Innovative scenario
??????????? ?????, ??? ?

• The crisis in oil demand
• The peak of world oil consumption will not have
  been passed up to 2050 ONLY in the reference
  scenario
• In the stagnation scenario, the peak will take
  place around 2040, and in innovation - around
  2030
• Revolutionary changes in the transport sector
  are possible electric and hybrid vehicles, fuel
  cell vehicles, gas and biogas

2050, Stagnation scenario
2050, Reference scenario
EU Russia Middle East
US China Other non-OECD
Other OECD India
2050, Innovative scenario
2050, Stagnation scenario
2050, Reference scenario
Motor vehicle Electricity heating Others
Other transport Chemicals
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• Will the Golden Age of Gas come?

Gas consumption, bcm

• Rapid growth of gas consumption, especially in
  the saturated markets of Asia
• Share of unconventional gas will grow, including
  gas hydrates
• The integration of regional gas markets through
  the LNG flows
• The evolution of pricing in the gas market
• The shift from the "geopolitics of oil" to the
  "geopolitics of gas

Innovative scenario
Stagnation scenario
Reference scenario
EU China
US India
Other OECD
Russia
Other non-OECD
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• World energy sector will move to the electric
  world

2050, Innovative scenario
2050, Stagnation scenario
2050, Reference scenario
1000 bln kW-h
EU
US
Other OECD
Russia
China
India
Other non-OECD
2050, Innovative scenario
2050, Stagnation scenario
2050, Reference scenario
1000 bln kW-h
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Large hydro
Renewables
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Strategies of key actors in different scenarios

• Geopolitical rivalry
• Three strategies - control over demand (EU),
  control over supply (OPEC, China, Russia), the
  control of transit and trade (United States,
  transit countries)

• Different ways of adapting to a new global
  climate and energy policy
• The role of resource and geopolitical factors
  will decline
• The role of legal and environmental factors will
  increase
• Conflicts in the regulation

• Strategies of countries will be determined by
  different speed of transition to an innovative
  energy sector
• World will split into innovative energy zone and
  traditional fuel energy zone
• The innovative competition

Russia needs to develop its own advanced strategy
taking into account the energy agenda of 2050
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The Energy of the Future in our Hands
Thank you for your attention www.energystrategy.r
u
Alexey GROMOV Deputy General Director Institute
of Energy Strategy, Moscow