UNFPAUNECENIDI Training programme on international migration, Geneva, 2428012005

1
UNFPA/UNECE/NIDI Training programme on
international migration, Geneva, 24-28/01/2005
Trends in International Migration George
Groenewold, NiDi 1. Concepts and
Definitions 2. Data sources and their
shortcomings 3. Measurement of migration Stocks
and Flows 4. Trends in International Migration
in the World and Europe
2
1. Concepts and Definitions
Demographic Balance Equation P(t1)
P(t)Births-Deaths(Immigrants-Emigrants), or,
P(t1) P(t)Natural IncreaseNet Migration
3
International migration

• Immigrant someone living in a country other than
  where he/she was born
• Emigrant someone leaving his/her country of
  birth to go and live in another country

Internal migration
In-migrant someone living in another place than
where he/she was born (but within the same
country) Out-migrant someone leaving his/her
place of birth to go and live in another place
(but within the same country)
4
Migration rates and ratios

• Net migration
• Difference between the number of immigrants (or
  in-migrants) and the number of emigrants (or
  out-migrants)
• If net migration is positive, there are more
  immigrants than emigrants
• A negative net migration implies that more
  people are leaving than arriving

• Out-migration (emigration) rate percentage of
  population from place x that now lives elsewhere
• In-migration (immigration) ratio population
  living in place x, but born elsewhere, as a
  percentage of the total population living in
  place x
• Depending on research question, denominator may
  differ so that indicator may be either a rate or
  ratio

5
Lifetime migrant someone who at the time of the
census lives away from his/her place of birth

• Recent migrant someone whose place of residence
  at the time of the census differs from that 1, 5
  years ago

Return migrant someone who, at the time of the
census, was living in the same place as at birth,
but who was living in another place X-years ago
Multiple migrant someone whose place of
residence is different at all three times at
birth, X-years ago, and at the census
6
Refugee A refugee is a person who owing to a
well-founded fear of being persecuted for reasons
of race, religion, nationality, membership of a
particular social group, or political opinion, is
outside the country of his nationality, and is
unable to or, owing to such fear, is unwilling to
avail himself of the protection of that
country (The 1951 Convention relating to the
Status of Refugees) But.also persons granted
refugee status by UNHCR, UN Relief and Welfare
Agency (UNRWA), 1969 OAU Convention on African
Refugees
Internally displaced person (IDP) Internally
displaced persons are persons or groups of
persons who have been forced or obliged to flee
or to leave their homes or places of habitual
residence, in particular as a result of or in
order to avoid the effects of armed conflict,
situations of generalized violence, violations of
human rights or natural or human-inflicted
disasters, and who have not crossed an
internationally recognized state border
7

• 2. Data sources and their shortcomings
• Potential data sources for migration statistics
• Population censuses and population registers
• Border statistics
• Admission and stay registers for foreigners,
  including refugees and asylum-seekers
• Work permit statistics
• General purpose surveys (GPS)
• Specialised migration surveys
• Typical shortcomings
• Completeness, definitions (comparability),
  quality
• Limited depth and breadth of data
• Data on situation of migrants prior to migration
  lacking
• Data of relevant comparison groups lacking

8
Table 1 Number and distribution over time of
using the census to determine the international
migrant stock
9

• 3. Measurement of Migraton Stocks, Flows, Trends
• Stocks who is a migrant?
• According to Place of Birth (POB)?
• - life time migrants (legalillegal residence
  status)
• - no time reference, no policy handle
• According to Citizenship criterion?
• - legal residence status
• - indicator with policy handle
• - multiple citizenship
• Number of migrants according to citizenship
  usually differs considerably from migrants
  according to POB
• Size and composition characteristics for
  monitoring social and economic integration

10
Table 2. Distribution of countries and areas
according to the type of data used to identify
stocks of international migrants
11
Figure 1. Type of data used to estimate migration
by region
Imputed Citizensh. Birthpl.
Africa Asia Europe L.Am. N.Am
Oceania
12
Flows (cross-tabulations) - POR by POB -life
time migration moves only -underestimation of
total migration moves (intermediate
destinations not recorded) -not
time-specific - POR by POB by Duration of
Residence -migration cohorts life time
in-migrants by time of last arrival - migration
and development analysis - POR by POR 1 or 5
years ago -focus on recent arrivals -UN
recommends 5 years ago -recall problem with
fixed reference date
13
4. Trends in International Migration in the World
and Europe

Suggested reference International Organization
for Migration (IOM) and UN. 2003. World
Migration Report 2003. Geneva.
14
Figure 2. Growth of migrant stocks in less
developed and more developed countries
15
Table 3. Estimates of (A) numbers of migrants
(B) proportional distribution (C) proportion of
female migrants in 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990 and
2000
16
Table 3. (continued)
17
Table 3. (continued)
18

• Feminisation of migration
• Increasing share of women in migration (46)
• Increasingly as wage earners instead of
  accompanying migrants (or for reason of family
  reunification/marriage)
• Vulnerability
• Double vulnerability (1) as migrant, (2) as a
  woman
• Residence dependent on primary migrant
• Trafficking

19
Table 4. World Population, International Migrants
(stocks) and Refugees, Worker Remittances
(Source UN Population Division, 2002)
20
Table 5. Foreign citizens, workers, and foreign
born in OECD countries in 1990 and 2001
21
Table 6. Origin countries with largest number
of refugees (thousands, year 2000)

22
Table 7. Destination asylum countries with
largest number of refugees (thousands, year
2000)
23
Figure 3. Refugee populations in region of
asylum, 1992-2001
24
Figure 4. A brief history of international
migration flows
Sourcehttp//pstalker.com/migration/mg_map.htm
25
Table 8. Net migration flows to European Union in
2000
26

• Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and Common
  Wealth of Independent States (CIS)
• 1989, 9 independent countries
• 1997, 27 independent countries (over 550 million
  people)
• Between 1989-1997
• Fewer than expected moved out of region (2.5
  million)
• Over 9 million moved within or between new
  States
• Voluntary (repatriants) and forced movements
  (refugees and internally displaced persons
  (IDP)
• By 1997, 4.7 million repatriants in CIS
• CEE/CIS increasingly transit-zones of
  international migrants and refugees from Asia
  and Africa
• Problem collection, compilation and
  dissemination of good quality migration data
  and statistics

27
To conclude, some key figures for year 2000
Total world population 6 billion International
migrants1 175 million (2.9 of
world population) Refugees 12
million IDPs 6.4 million 1) Living
outside country of birth Source UN Statistics
Division