VULNERABILITY, MITIGATION AND PREPAREDNESS AT NATURAL DISASTERS: THE CASE OF TURKISH EARTHQUAKES

1
VULNERABILITY, MITIGATION AND PREPAREDNESS AT
NATURAL DISASTERS THE CASE OF TURKISH
EARTHQUAKES

• Istanbul University, Istanbul Medical Faculty,
  Department of Public Health
• Yakut Irmak ÖZDEN, Ayse Emel ÖNAL, Sidika Tekeli
  YESIL

2

• For many years, public health researchers have
  directed their efforts towards health problems
  arising mainly from faulty social and economic
  structures and the importance of natural factors,
  has been to some extent neglected.
• Of course, the impact of demographic, social and
  economic factors on nature should not be
  overlooked either. Mankind has been attempting to
  manipulate his natural environment sometimes in
  a destructive manner- according to his economic
  needs, without taking into account the new risks
  brought about by this destruction.

3
(No Transcript)
4
(No Transcript)
5
(No Transcript)
6

• The contribution of human made and natural
  disasters to the global disease burden is
  expected to climb from the 12th place in 1998 to
  the 8th place in 2020. The statistics gathered at
  the CRED show that in 2002, 488 natural disasters
  were reported in the world, causing the death of
  40 327 people. Furthermore, 48 708 persons were
  injured and a total of 621 331 512 were affected
  due to the consequences of natural disasters. On
  the other hand, according to WHO, by the end of
  the 20th century, the impact of natural disasters
  to the world economy reached 50 billion dollars
  annualy.
• Accelerated changes in demographic and economic
  trends have disturbed the balance between
  ecosystems. Environmental degradation intensifies
  disasters, and increases the potential for
  secondary disasters.

7

• At the 22nd World Congress of Architecture held
  in Istanbul last month, the participants
  unanimously declared that the lack of politics of
  development in industrialisation, urbanization
  and architecture oriented towards human welfare
  and security was much more responsible for the
  consequences of disasters than nature itself.
• Each hazard and each geographical area has its
  own vulnerabilities and consequences. The
  severity of the toll paid at the disasters mostly
  depend on faulty economic and social
  infrastuctures of the affected community.

8

• Disasters do not kill or strike people in the
  same way, it depends on who you are and to what
  society you belong. According to World Banks
  estimations, 97 of deaths related to natural
  disasters occur in the developing countries.

9
On the other hand, the ratio of economic loss to
GNP in those countries far exceeds the ones in
developed countries
10
(No Transcript)
11

• In the case of earthquakes, vulnerability factors
  may be summarised as fallows
• -Location of settlements in seismic areas,
• -Inadequate building practices and regulations,
• -Dense concentration of buildings with high
  occupancy,
• -The lack of warning systems and of public
  awareness on earthquake risks.
• In the developing countries, the main increase in
  risk can be attributed to overcrowding, faulty
  land-use planning and construction, inadequate
  infrastructure and services and environmental
  degradation.

12
(No Transcript)
13

• The probability that a particular system or
  population will be affected by hazards is known
  as risk. Hence, it can be said that,
• RiskVulnerability x Hazard
• or, taking into account coping capacity
• Risk VulnerabilityxHazard
• Coping Capacity
• -Vulnerability has always economic, social,
  organisational and educational dimensions.

14

• Mitigation can be defined as the permanent
  reduction of the disaster risk and can be
  categorized as primary mitigation which refers
  to reducing the presence of the hazard and of the
  vulnerability, and secondary mitigation, which
  refers to reducing the impact of the hazard.
• Preparedness covers the measures that insure
  the organized mobilization of personel, funds,
  equipment and supplies within a safe environment
  for effective relief, response can be defined
  as the set of activities implemented after the
  impact of a disaster in order to assess the
  needs, reduce the suffering, limit the spread and
  the consequences of the disaster and open the way
  to rehabilitation.

15
(No Transcript)
16
(No Transcript)
17

• Turkey is located between Europe and Asia with a
  population reaching 70 millions. The growth rate
  of the population, which was nearing 3 during
  the period 1955-1980, has been diminishing since
  and was reduced to 1.5 in the last years. The
  country has been undergoing a very rapid process
  of urbanization in the last 50 years and the
  ratio of urban popülation, which was 26 in 1950,
  had climbed to 60 by the end of the century, the
  urban population growth rate was 3.3 between
  1990-2000.

18
(No Transcript)
19

• Turkey is a land of earthquakes because of its
  location. There are seven main tectonic areas in
  Turkey. Nearly 96 of the country with different
  rates, is located on seismic risks areas. 66 of
  this large earthquake zone cconsists of active
  fault systems, which means that 70 of the
  population and 75 of industrial establishments
  in those regions can face with an earthquake
  anytime. Among the disasters that regularly
  strike Turkey, earthquakes have always caused the
  major share of causalties and physical damage.

20
(No Transcript)
21
The Marmara Region is one of the highest risk
areas. Nearly one third of Turkeys population
live in this region. With the highest population
growth rate (2.8). This growth rate is mostly
due to internal migration for employment
opportunities.
22

• This high-density population brings many problems
  with such as the increase in the number of
  buildings and settlements. The number of
  buildings in Istanbul, which was 1 378 000 in
  1984, had increased at the end of the century to
  3 393 000 with a growth rate of 146. Besides its
  demographic features, this region plays a leading
  role in the economy of the country (Its share in
  industrial GDP reaches 33.8) and an important
  part of all qualified people live here.

23

• Unfortunately a very severe earthquake is
  expected to happen with a very high degree of
  probability within the next 30 years and its
  epicenter will be this time much closer to
  Istanbul metropolitan area.

24
Estimated Damage and Losses Due to Expected
Earthquake ( According to Credible worst
scenario)
Deaths 40 000 - 50 000
Shelter Needs 600 000 Households
Losses due to building damages 11 Billions U.S. Dollars
Damaged Buildings
Beyond Repair 40 000
Extensive Damage 70 000
Moderate Damage 200 000