David Hone Group Climate Change Adviser Shell International Ltd'

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David HoneGroup Climate Change AdviserShell
International Ltd.
Energy Trends and Climate Change
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Disclaimer
This presentation discusses future energy options
in the context of a long term atmospheric
concentration of CO2 of no more than 550 ppm. The
options discussed are not a scenario, but an
illustrative hypothesis to gauge the extent of
change needed in our energy infrastructure and
the impact that might have on the oil and gas
industry. The presentation is not an endorsement
of any particular pathway, technology or specific
atmospheric concentration target.
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Growth, Development and Energy Demand

• Basic premise energy use and growth are
  strongly linked

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Achieving an acceptable CO2 stabilization
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CO2 Emissions GtC / year
25
20
15
10
5
0
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
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The Kaya Identity

• The Kaya Identity breaks down the main emissions
  driving forces as multiplicative factors on one
  side of an equation, against CO2 emissions on the
  other, such that
• CO2 emissions people GDP
  energy CO2
• person unit GDP
  unit energy
• Only four factors govern the outcome, being
• Population Number of people
• Standard of Living GDP per person
• Energy Intensity Energy per unit of GDP
  (efficiency of the economy)
• Carbon Intensity CO2 per unit of energy
  (reflects the energy source)

X
X
x x x
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Managing growth, energy and carbon emissions
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. . . and on a regional basis
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A trade-off between efficiency and decarbonisation
Alternative pathways, USA Canada
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What is one Giga-Tonne per year of Carbon?
. . . about 700 modern 1 GW coal fired power
stations
. . . about 1400 1 GW CCGT power stations
. . . about 600 million of these
. . . or more than one and a half billion of these
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Todays energy infrastructure
Final Energy
Non-commercial
300 EJ
2000
25EJ per year solar
500,000 5MW wind turbines
1000 1GW coal power stations
1000 1GW coal stations with sequestration
1000 1GW oil power stations
1000 1GW gas power stations
1000 1GW nuclear plants
1000 1GW hydro/ tidal /geothermal
50EJ non-commercial fuel
100 EJ direct fuel use ( Biomass)
500 million vehicles (Zero CO2)
500 million efficient vehicles (Zero CO2)
1000 1GW biomass or waste stations
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A much lower CO2 trajectory
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Options for change enabling technologies
Emission reduction
A further shift to natural gas
Nuclear power
Renewables
Bio-products
Carbon capture and storage
Energy conservation and efficiency
Mass transportation
Road transport
Buildings
Low energy appliances
Doing things differently
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Milestones what to achieve by 2025
By 2025 we must be well on the way, with
technologies proven and energy policy aligned
with the objective. For example, we need to have

• Commercialised coal power generation with carbon
  capture and storage and have some 100 or more
  plants in operation globally.
• Gained full public acceptance of nuclear power as
  a viable zero-carbon power generation option and
  restarted long term growth in this industry.
• Achieved wide deployment of high efficiency
  vehicles (e.g. hybrid diesel) in developed
  countries, with developing countries following,
  and started deployment of zero emission vehicles.
• Recognised the potential of advanced bio-fuels
  and reached a level of more than 6 bio-fuels in
  transport fuels globally.
• Introduced wind and solar power on a large scale
  globally, with over 1 TW of installed wind
  capacity.
• Achieved significant efficiency gains, with
  developed countries improving by more than 2
  annually.

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Chinas developing energy infrastructure(illustra
tive case, supporting a 550 ppm global trajectory)
Final Energy
Traditional biomass
34 EJ
2002
5 EJ per year solar
100,000 5MW wind turbines
200 1GW coal power stations
200 1GW coal stations with sequestration
200 1GW oil power stations
200 1GW gas power stations
200 1GW nuclear plants
200 1GW hydro/ tidal /geothermal
10 EJ non-commercial fuel
20 EJ direct fuel use ( Biomass)
100 million vehicles (Zero CO2)
100 million efficient vehicles (Zero CO2)
200 1GW biomass or waste stations
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A global CO2 market can develop
2000 2005 2010 2015
2020 2025
Pre-Kyoto Kyoto
Kyoto Phase II Linkage framework
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Heading to a 550 ppm world

• Possible directions (illustrative) from a strong
  response to climate change
• Short to medium term (2010 2025)
• Carbon markets grow, potentially covering all
  developed countries and offering tangible
  opportunity value in developing countries.
• Managing CO2 becomes a prerequisite for new
  industrial projects.
• Renewable power generation and bio-fuels grow to
  15 of the global energy mix.
• Strong emphasis on energy efficiency.
• Long term (2030 - 2050)
• Primary energy use nearly doubles - gas could
  become the single largest source of energy.
• Final energy use could shift strongly to
  electricity, away from liquids today.
• Personal mobility doubles bio-fuels and
  hydrogen become important energy carriers for
  transport.
• Coal remains a key power generation fuel but
  CO2 is captured and stored.

A range of existing technologies, further
developed and deployed through a global carbon
market can deliver a 550 ppm trajectory, . . . .
. . . but the scale of change is immense, . . .
. . . . . .and we need to start now!
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Shells New Energy Technologies