Reframing climate change: from long-term targets to emission pathways

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Reframing climate change from long-term targets
to emission pathways

• Professor Kevin AndersonDirector of the
  Tyndalls Centres Energy Programme

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Reframing Climate Change
From long-term targets to emission pathways

• Kevin Anderson
• Research director
• Tyndall Centres energy programme
• University of Manchester
• 17th June 2008

Based on research by Kevin Anderson
Alice Bows Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil
Engineering
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Talk outline

• What is dangerous climate change?
• Reframing the debate - cumulative emissions
• Its energy demand stupid
• The critical role of aviation shipping
• Responding to the challenge
• the UKs climate change bill?
• Revisiting the global context

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What is dangerous climate change?

• UK EU define this as 2?C
• Links to total quantity of CO2 in atmosphere
• - measured in parts-per-million by volume (ppmv)
• Currently 380ppmv increasing 2-3ppmv each year
• - 280ppmv before industrial revolution
• Still feasible to keep below 450ppmv CO2
• - i.e. 70 chance of exceeding 2?C
• 50 chance of exceeding 3?C

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What are the correct emission targets for 2?C
?

• UK EU have long term reduction targets
• - e.g. UKs 60 reduction in CO2 by 2050
• But CO2 stays in atmosphere for approx.
  100years
• Hence, todays emissions add to yesterdays
• will be added to by tomorrows
• So, focus on long-term targets is very misleading

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Put bluntly
the final reduction in carbon has little
relevance to avoiding dangerous climate change
(e.g. 2?C)
What is important are the cumulative emissions
of carbon
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How does this scientifically-credible way of
thinking, alter the challenge we face?
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A bank-account analogy

• We know
• .. how much money we have in the bank
• between 2000-2050 (the carbon budget)

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For a 30 chance of avoiding dangerous climate
change
the UKs budget is
4.8 billion tonnes of carbon between 2000-2050
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From this two questions arise

1. What are the emissions between 2000 today?
2. What emissions are we locked into in the
   immediate future?

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Answer 1
emissions between 2000-2006 were 1.2
billion tonnes of carbon
i.e. weve used ¼ of our permitted emissions
for 50 years in around 6 years!
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Answer 2
Looking at this graphically
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Plot data from 2000 to 2006
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Dip due to September 11th
Plot data from 2000 to 2006
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What about the next 6 years with more aviation
shipping
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emissions are likely to rise
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But we only have
4.8 billion tonnes Carbon in the bank
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locking the UK into dramatic annual carbon
reductions from around 2012-2032
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9 p.a. reduction
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even a 550ppmv pathway has an emission
reduction of 6 p.a from 2015 for 2 decades
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What does this pathway say about emission
policies ?
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most emissions are released in next 15 yrs
2006
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demand
2006
supply demand
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how does aviation fit into this?
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Aviation is currently 7 of UK emissions (over ½
of that from cars)
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• if emissions grow at 7 until 2012
• (historical mean)
• reducing to 3 from 2012-2050

Aviation is currently 7 of UK emissions (over ½
of that from cars)
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70 of UK emissions
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and a similar situation exists for shipping
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What emissions pathway is implied by the climate
change bill
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Domestic emissions already released (ex.
international aviation shipping)
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UK Domestic Carbon Emissions Bills targets
pathways
Climate Bills implied trajectory (though 26 by
2020)
(though 32 by 2020)
60 reduction
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UK Cumulative budget implied by
the bill
Climate Bills implied trajectory (though 26 by
2020)
Area Cumulative carbon budget
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UK Cumulative budget implied by
the bill
Climate Bills implied trajectory (though 26 by
2020)
Bill equates to 6.0GtC (2000-2050) (ex.
international aviation shipping)
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adding International Aviation Shipping
UK Cumulative budget implied by
the bill
Climate Bills implied trajectory (though 26 by
2020)
Bill equates to 6.0GtC (2000-2050) (ex.
international aviation shipping)
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adding International Aviation Shipping
1.5GtC
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adding International Aviation Shipping
1.5GtC
i.e. With a low growth future for aviation
shipping (2000-2050)
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Consequently, the Bill implies

• - a UK total cumulative 2000-2050 budget of
  7.5GtC
• - an atmospheric concentration of over 650ppmv
  CO2
• virtual certainty of exceeding 2C
• a 50 chance of exceeding 4C

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so what should a 2C science-based climate
change bill contain
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the bill should

• adopt cumulative emissions as basis for targets
• acknowledge 2C is much more demanding than
• previously thought (6 to 9 carbon reduction
  p.a.)
• include aviation shipping emissions
• recognise need for immediate action on demand
• (acknowledge reliance on low-carbon supply is
  misguided)

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Revisiting the global context
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Tyndalls global emission scenarios (CO2e)

• What are the latest CO2 emission trends?
• What are implications of factoring in
• - land-use forestry?
• - non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions?
• When will global CO2e emissions peak?

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What are the latest global CO2 emission trends?
2.7 p.a. last 100yrs 3.3 p.a. in last 5
years
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What are the latest global CO2e emission trends?
2.8 p.a. since 2000 Stern assumed 0.96
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Land-use forestry emissions

• Tyndall analysis uses
• most optimistic estimate from the literature
• Tyndall very low emission scenario

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Non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions

• Tyndall analysis uses
• Short-term EPA estimates
• Tyndall optimistic scenarios up to peak
  emissions
• Stabilisation at low-level by 2050

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When will global CO2e emissions peak?
USA - 2025 Stern - 2015 Tyndall - 2015, 2020,
2025
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When will global CO2e emissions peak?
USA - 2025 Stern - 2015 Tyndall - 2015, 2020,
2025
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What does all this imply for a 450ppmvCO2e
future?
Unprecedented annual reductions (10 pa
globally)
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• For 550ppmv CO2e with emissions peaking by 2020
• 6 annual reductions in CO2e
• 9 annual reductions in CO2 from energy

• For 650ppmv CO2e with emissions peaking by 2020
• 3 annual reductions in CO2e
• 3.5 annual reductions in CO2 from energy

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What are the precedents for such reductions?

• annual reductions of greater than 1 p.a. have
  only
• been associated with economic recession or
  upheaval
• Stern 2006
• UK gas French 40x nuclear 1 p.a. reductions
• (ex. aviation shipping)
• Collapse Soviet Union economy 5 p.a.
  reductions

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So where does this leave us?
Even assuming an unprecedented step change in
mitigating emissions stabilising at 650ppmv
CO2e appears increasingly to be the best we can
expect i.e. human-induced climate change
of 4C or more
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To conclude

• We need to urgently reframe the climate change
  debate
• For mitigation
• 2C should remain the driver of policy
• For adaptation
• 4C should become the driver of policy

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ultimately .. at every level the greatest
obstacle to transforming the world is that we
lack the clarity and imagination to conceive that
it could be different. Roberto Unger
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1-person living in 3 bedroom houses
patio heaters
10 halogen bulbs lighting the kitchen
3 tonne 4WD car to transport 70kg flesh 3miles
driving children to school
academics flying to climate change conferences
musicians flying to climate change concerts
double door refrigerators home cinema
second homes, 2 cars 3 TVs
business tycoons with private jets
hen parties in Prague birthdays in Barcelona
all with 9 billion people living on our planet!
right to fly drive when to wherever we want
celebrating the excesses of celebrities
year-round strawberries
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End
Reframing Climate Change
From long-term targets to emission pathways
Kevin Anderson Alice Bows Tyndall
Centre University of Manchester