WiLLWAND Framing Our Message on True Security

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WiLL/WANDFraming Our Message on True Security

• Celinda Lake
• Sunday, October 4, 2009

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Key Points

• Opinions of Obama have dropped since he took
  office earlier this year.
• Women are unfavorable toward Republicans in
  Congress, but favorable toward Democrats.
• Voters top issue is the economy and jobs. They
  are also concerned about health care costs, the
  budget deficit, and the wars in Iraq and
  Afghanistan. They continue to trust Republicans
  more on national defense.
• For women, the issue agenda is similar. Their
  top concern is the economy, follow by health care
  costs. Democratic women are especially concerned
  about health care.
• Overall, Americans are optimistic about the war
  in Iraq, but still think it was a mistake. They
  think we are doing the right thing by staying in
  Afghanistan, but they are more pessimistic about
  how we are faring there.
• Iran is seen as a threat, but Americans want the
  U.S. to have diplomatic relations with the
  Iranians.

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Key Points The Difference Women Make

• As voters- they determine elections, they turn
  out more.
• As candidates- they mobilize voters, they set the
  agenda.
• As officeholders- they set the agenda, they set
  the style, they get things done, they represent a
  different experience, they bring about change.
• Women voters were instrumental in taking back
  Congress in the 2006 elections and in delivering
  the White House to President Obama in 2008.
• They can also determine Republicans victories
  with their lack of enthusiasm, witness 2004.
• Younger women, unmarried women, and minority
  women vote solidly Democratic.

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Women's Vote

• The gender gap was key in delivering the White
  House to Obama.

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In the last two decades, gender gaps have ranged
from as low as 5 points, to a high of 22 points
in 2000.
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17
22
9
12
Source Center for the American Woman and Politics
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The gender gap was apparent all fall...
Weekly Poll Tracking Barack Obama's Support by
Gender
53
53
53
52
54
54
49
48
47
45
44
44
Source Gallup
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And the gender gap played a role in the 2008
elections.
White women 46 to 53 White men 41 to 57
In 2006 Men47 Democratic 51
Republican Women 56 Democratic 43 Republican
In 2004 Men45 Democratic 53
Republican Women 52 Democratic 46 Republican
Source CNN 2008 Exit Polls
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Key last minute battlegrounds were won with the
womens vote.
Source CNN 2008 Exit Polls
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The marital status gap opened up wide in this
election. The gap was especially noticeable among
unmarried women, who made up a fifth of the
electorate. Unmarried women voted in record
numbers in 2008.
Source National Election Pool Exit Poll, 2008
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Married moms broke for Obama.
Source CNN 2008 Exit Polls
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Turnout among young women has steadily increased
in the last four presidential elections.
Source US Census Bureau
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The State of the Nation

• About half the country thinks we are off on the
  wrong track, and Obamas approval ratings are
  down from earlier in the year, although still net
  positive.

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Half of Americans believe the country is headed
down the wrong track.
Generally speaking, would you say things in this
country are heading in the right direction, or
are they off on the wrong track?
Wrong Track
Right Direction
Survey by Daily Kos/Research 2000. 9/21-24, 2009
2,400 adults nationwide
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Women are slightly less sure about the direction
of the country.
Do you feel things in this country are going in
the right direction, or have they gotten off on
the wrong track?
Wrong Track
Right Direction

LRP-The Tarrance Group. July 19-23, 2009 1000
Registered Voters.
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Younger women are more optimistic than their
older counterparts.
Do you feel things in this country are going in
the right direction, or have they gotten off on
the wrong track?
Wrong Track
Wrong Track
Right Direction
Right Direction
Women under 55
Women 55 and over
LRP-The Tarrance Group. July 19-23, 2009 1000
Registered Voters.
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The Presidents approval ratings have dropped in
2009.
How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been
doing as President? Do you approve or disapprove
of the job he is doing?
Rasmussen. 1,500 likely voters nationwide.
Democracy Corps. 8/30-9/1/09. 1000 likely
voters.
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Women are slightly more positive toward the
Presidents job performance than men.
How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been
doing as President? Do you approve or disapprove
of the job he is doing?
Women
Men
LRP-The Tarrance Group. July 19-23, 2009 1000
Registered Voters.
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Majorities of Americans approve of Obamas
performance on key issues like the economy and
foreign affairs. They are split on health care.
CBS/New York Times. September 19-23, 2009 1042
Adults. NBC/Wall Street Journal. September
17-20, 2009. 1005 Adults.
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Women approve of the job Congress is doing this
year more than men.
How would you rate the job Congress has been
doing this year? Do you approve or disapprove of
the job they are doing?
Total
Women
Men
LRP-The Tarrance Group. July 19-23, 2009 1000
Registered Voters.
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Women are unfavorable toward Republicans in
Congress, but favorable toward Democrats. A
majority of men are unfavorable toward both.
Now I would like to read you the names of several
individuals and organizations who have been
mentioned in the news recently. For each one,
please tell me whether you have heard of that
person or organization and if so, whether you
have a favorable or an unfavorable impression of
them. If you do not recognize the name, just say
so.
Republicans in Congress
Democrats in Congress
LRP-The Tarrance Group. July 19-23, 2009 1000
Registered Voters.
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Voters believe that Republicans will better
handle the issue of promoting a strong national
defense than Democrats will.
Now, I would like to read you a list of issues
that some people from this part of the country
have said are important for the Congress to deal
with. Please listen as I read the list and tell
me, for each one, who will better handle this
issue -- (ROTATE) Republicans in Congress or
Democrats in Congress. Here is the first one
Promoting a strong national defense
LRP-The Tarrance Group. July 19-23, 2009 1000
Registered Voters.
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The Issue Agenda

• The economy and jobs dominates as the top
  domestic concern. Women, especially Democratic
  women, are worried about health care costs.

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The economy/jobs is the top concern. Health care
costs, the federal budget deficit and the wars in
Iraq and Afghanistan are in a second tier.
In your opinion, what is the most important
problem facing the U.S. today?
Those who are most concerned about the wars in
Iraq and Afghanistan include voters in Florida,
African American women, Democratic women,
Liberals, Conservative Democrats, moms, divorced
voters without children, Born-again/Evangelical
women, and non-white Evangelicals.
note small sample size LRP-The Tarrance Group.
July 19-23, 2009 1000 Registered Voters.
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Women rank the economy and jobs and health care
costs as their top concern facing the country
today.
In your opinion, what is the most important
problem facing the U.S. today?
LRP-The Tarrance Group. July 19-23, 2009 1000
Registered Voters.
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Democratic, Independent, and Republican women all
see the economy and jobs as the top national
problem. Democratic women are also concerned
about health care costs.
In your opinion, what is the most important
problem facing the U.S. today?
LRP-The Tarrance Group. July 19-23, 2009 1000
Registered Voters.
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The Issue AgendaThe War in Iraq, and
Afghanistan, relations with Iran, the War on
Terror, and Military Spending

• Americans opinions on the situation in Iraq are
  improving, while Afghanistan and Iran are
  worrisome.

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A plurality of Americans say that Obamas
policies are not making much difference in making
the United States safer from terrorism.
Do you think Obama's policies are making the
United States safer from terrorism, less safe, or
are they not making much difference in that?
Washington Post/ABC April 21-24, 2009 1072
adults
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A plurality believe that the amount of money
spent on national defense is about right. About
a third say it is too much.
There is much discussion as to the amount of
money the government in Washington should spend
for national defense and military purposes. How
do you feel about this? Do you think we are
spending too little, about the right amount, or
too much?
Gallup February 9-12, 2009 1,022 adults
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Americans are optimistic about Iraq, even though
they think it was a mistake to send troops there.
In general, how would you say things are going
for the U.S. in Iraq -- very well, moderately
well, moderately badly or very badly?
In view of the developments since we first sent
our troops to Iraq, do you think the United
States made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq,
or not?
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Made a mistake
Did not make mistake
Gallup July 10 -12, 2009 505 adults
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A majority approve of the way President Obama is
handling the situation with Iraq.
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack
Obama is handling the situation with Iraq?
CBS News/New York Times September 19-23, 2009
1,042 adults
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Two-thirds of Americans do not believe the war in
Iraq was worth the loss of American life and
other costs. A quarter believe it was.
Do you think the result of the war with Iraq was
worth the loss of American life and other costs
of attacking Iraq, or not?
CBS News/New York Times September 19-23, 2009
1,042 adults
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Most Americans do not believe that all U.S.
troops will withdraw from Iraq by the end of
2011.
As you may know, the security agreement signed
last year between the United States and Iraq
calls for the withdrawal of all U.S. forces from
Iraq by the end of 2011. Just your best guess,
do you think all U.S. forces will or will not be
out of Iraq by that time?
Gallup June 30, 2009 1,011 adults
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However, over two-thirds believe that over the
next four years, President Obama will be able to
remove most troops from Iraq.
Do you believe it is likely, unlikely, or neither
likely nor unlikely that Barack Obama will be
able to achieve each of the following during the
next four years? How about remove most troops
from Iraq?
GfK Roper Public Affairs and Media July 16-20,
2009 1,006 adults
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A majority still believes that a victory in Iraq
is not necessary in order for the war on
terrorism to be a success, although that
sentiment has decreased.
Do you think the United States must win the war
in Iraq in order for the broader war on terrorism
to be a success, or do you think the war on
terrorism can be a success without the United
States winning the war in Iraq?
ABC News/Washington Post February 19-22, 2009
1,001 adults
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Americans are pessimistic about Afghanistan, even
though they think the US is doing the right thing
by fighting in Afghanistan now.
What is your impression of how the war in
Afghanistan is going for the United States right
now very well, somewhat well, somewhat badly, or
very badly?
Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by
fighting the war in Afghanistan now, or should
the U.S. not be involved in Afghanistan now?
-18
Doing right thing
Not involved
CBS/New York Times September 19-23, 2009 1042
adults
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A plurality approve of the way President Obama is
handling the situation with Afghanistan.
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack
Obama is handling the situation with Afghanistan?

CBS News/New York Times September 19-23, 2009
1,042 adults
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A strong majority say Iran represents a threat to
the United States.
Would you say that the following represent a very
serious threat to the United States, a moderately
serious threat, just a slight threat, or no
threat at all? Iran
79
20
CNN/Opinion Research June 26-28, 2009 1026
adults
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A majority approved of the way President Obama
responded to political unrest in Iran earlier
this year.
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack
Obama has responded to recent events in Iran?
CNN/Opinion Research June 26-28, 2009 1026
adults
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A majority of Americans think that the United
States should establish diplomatic relations with
Iran even if Iran has a nuclear program.
Do you think the United States should or should
not establish diplomatic relations with Iran
while Iran has a nuclear program?
CBS/New York Times April 22-26, 2009 973
adults
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WAND/WiLL
Celinda Lake www.lakeresearch.com 202-776-9066