Population and Mobility

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Population and Mobility

• Themes of the course
• 1. Ageing population
• 2. Migration systems
• 3. Rural population change and migration
• 4. Population forecasting
• 5. Mobility and social structure
• 6. Commuting and temporary mobility

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Forms of mobility
International Migration
Long distance
Tourist travels
Interregional Migration
Short distance
Commuting
Residential mobility
Daily
Life time
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Population Ageing
Labour demandEconomic growthSocial
networksTravel patternsResidential preferences
Mobility
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Ageing and Living Conditions One of Umeå
universitys research profiles
Ageing population
Participation

• Work
• Leisure
• Social relations
• Society
• Image of ageing

• Fertility
• Mortality
• Migration
• Biologcical
• ageing

Successful ageing

• Health
• Cognition
• Economy
• Network
• Care

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Demographic transition

• Population growth
• (young populations)
• Ageing population
• Population decline

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Perspectives on population

• Malthusian,
• Focus on people as consumers
• Population/ carrying capacity
• Population growth is the problem
• Human capital perspective
• Focus on people as producers
• Human capital formation is the key issue
• Population composition and education is crucial

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Percentage of population over 65
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UN Population forecast 1950 - 2050
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UN Population forecast to 2050
Major regions in Europe 1950 - 2050
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Demografic transition
Crude birth rates
Crude death rates
Population
t
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Three problems of demographic transition

• Demographic Trap
• Sub-replacement fertility ?Population decline
• Rapid transition ?Narrow window for development

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Demografic transition
Sub-replacement scenario
Demographic trap
Crude birth rates
Crude death rates
Population
t
Rapid transition, narrow development window
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Three age pyramids
Senegal 2000
Sweden 2000
Italy 2050
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Why population ageing?

• We live longer!!

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Life expectancy at birth men and women Sweden
1750 -2005
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Why population ageing?

• Declining fertility
• sub-replacement fertility under 2,1
• Fewer women in reproductive age

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Some concepts

• Crude Birth Rates (CBR)
• number of births/population (number of women
  fertility)
• Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
• number of births/women in reproductive age
• Period Fertility Fertility at a specific period
  in time
• Cohort fertility Sum of births of woman at age
  45 in a specific cohort
• Population Momentum,
• effects of age distribution (share of women in
  fertile age) on population growth

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Three age pyramids
Senegal 2000
Sweden 2000
Italy 2050
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• What are the determinants of fertility
  decline?In Europe?

In developing countries?
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Indicators of Population Ageing

• Mean age, (Median age)
• Dependency ratio Total population/
  Population16-64
• Labour Dependency ratio Total Population /
  people in the labour force
• Potential support ratio (PSR) People 15 65/
  gt65

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What are the problems of population ageing?
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Percentage of population over 65
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Modeling impacts on population ageing

• The aim to analyze consequences of possible
  population scenarios on the dependency ratio
  (burden)
• Demographic determinants of population ageing
• The speed of the population ageing process
• Can the demographic ageing process be moderated?

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Modeling impacts on population ageing

• Cohort model
• Age and sex specific mortality, fertility,
  immigration and emigraiton rates
• Swedens population by age and sex 2002 -2050
• Based on the assumption of SCB forecasts

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Assumptions in the model

• Total Fertility Rate 1,8
• Mortality reduction as in SCB forecasts
• Immigration as in SCB forecasts, slight increase
• Same age composition as in the current
  immigration population
• Dependency burden with the same participation
  rate as in 2002

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Dependency Ratio 2002 - 2050
In 2030 1,75 persons per individual in working
age
Today 1,57 persons per individual in working age

• 5 more hours of work per week
• Pension by 70, instead of 65

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Fertility

• The assumed fertility rate is relatively high
• Sweden has a higher TFR than in most other
  developed countries
• Due to
• Child care
• Womens position
• but, postponed fertility

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Scenarios with higher and lower fertility rates
TFR 2,1
TFR 1,5
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More or less immigration?

• Migration potential?
• Alternative destinations for migrants
• Ageing also in sending countries
• The problem of the rapid transition
• Age composition of the migrant population
• Emigration
• Attitudes to immigration

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Scenarios with higher and lower immigration
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Continued mortality reduction?

• Recent research indicate that mortality rates
  continue to fall
• Recent research indicate higher rate of
  ill-health among elderly in Sweden
• (cohort effects?)

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Scenario without mortality reduction
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Regional variations
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The ten regions with the highest dependency ratio
2004 and 2025
Källa Institutet för framtidsstudier 2006
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Geographical distribution of dependency burden

• Ageing population is well-known phenomenon in the
  sparsely populated areas
• The effect of urbanisation
• Stockholm is only about 15 years behind
• But large regional differences in dependency
  ratio and care burden will remain

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Conclusions from analyses with the model

• Demographic ageing is difficult to influence
• Low fertility rate (in previous decades) is the
  major determinant
• There is a conflict between higher fertility
  rates and good care for elderly people
• Immigration is not the quick solution to
  demographic ageing
• Increasing labour market participation for
  instance of people over 65 would ease the
  dependency burden
• Regional variations are large

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Responsibility for welfare
Problems of ageing
Ageing on the national level
Dependency burden Care burden Human capital
formation Pensions
National or Local responsibility
Local dependency burden Local care
burden Taxes Service Human capital formation
Ageing on the local level
Public or family responsibility
Ageing on the network level
Care of relatives Economic support Nearness Time
Family or individual responsibility
Health Cognition Economy Access to care Social
ties

• Ageing on the individual level