National Food and Agricultural Policy Project

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• National Food and Agricultural Policy Project
• Arizona State University
• AFBF 88th Annual Convention
• January 6, 2007

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NFAPP Mission

• NFAPP is a charged with the responsibility of
  providing timely policy and market analysis on
  the fruit and vegetable sector to Congress and
  the industry.
• http//nfapp.poly.asu.edu/

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NFAPP Activities

• 10-year Baselines
• Policy Analyses
• Congressional Research Requests
• Review Sessions
• Policy Papers
• Quarterly Newsletter

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Fruit and Nut Models

• Almonds
• Apples
• Cherries
• Grapes
• Oranges
• Peaches
• Strawberries

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Vegetable and Melon Models

• Bell Pepper
• Broccoli
• Cantaloupe
• Carrots
• Cauliflower
• Celery
• Honey Dew

• Lettuce
• Mushrooms
• Onions
• Potatoes
• Sweet Corn - Proc.
• Tomatoes (Fresh, Proc.)
• Watermelon

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2005 U.S. Agricultural Cash ReceiptsTotal
238.9 Billion
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NFAPP Fruit and Nut Cash Receipts 2005
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Fruit Value Forecast

• U. S total Value for Fruits and Nuts is expected
  to grow 17 from 2006 to 2015 to reach 17.8
  billion dollars

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Fruit Value Forecast
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NFAPP Vegetable and Melon Cash Receipts 2005
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Vegetable Value Forecast

• U.S. Vegetable cash receipts are expected to
  follow a similar growth as that of fruits (17)
  to reach 22.5 billion dollars

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Vegetable Value Forecast
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Production

• While production for major Vegetables has grown
  at of 52 per year Fruits has been stable with a
  percent growth of 4 per year.

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Production
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Consumption

• Historical Trends Show that Consumption for
  vegetables has grown 21 while fruits have been
  growing at a rate of 9

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Consumption
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Commodity Import Share

• Lettuce1-1.5
• Fresh White Onions11-12
• Potatoes 6-8
• Tomatoes 35-40
• Table Grapes 52-58
• Apples Fresh 6-9, Juice 63-80
• Oranges Fresh 3-7, Juice 13-21
• Fresh Strawberries 5-8
• Range Fruits 24, Vegetables 18

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Farm Bill IssuesCurrent Policy Analysis

• Flex Acre Provisions
• Market Expansion
• School lunch program
• (fruit and vegetable)

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Flex Acre Restriction

• Commodity program participants allowed to produce
  any crop except, fruits, vegetables, and wild
  rice
• Traditionally, an argument supported by concerns
  over equity
• Restriction called into question under Brazils
  challenge of the U.S. cotton program
• Additional complexity 2002 Farm Bill brought
  soybeans and peanuts under the DCP program

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Flex Acre - Complexities

• Fruit and vegetable crops are commercially
  produced in every state
• Program crops are produced in every state
• Program crop producers are enrolled in commodity
  programs in nearly every state
• Traditionally returns in many fruit and vegetable
  crops have exceeded returns on program crop
  commodities, though typically more variable

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Potential Entry into Fruits Vegetables

• Competing Areas
• 219 million acres program crops (2002)
• 267 million acres enrolled acres
• 10 million acres all produce
• Where and what
• Processing vegetables not likely
• Tree fruit, berry (cane-type) not likely
• Fresh vegetables, melons more likely
• Areas with existing production

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Select Region

• Program Crop Acreage 4.5 Million Acres
• Cotton, winter wheat, sorghum, corn, peanuts
• Produce Crop Acreage 695,210 Acres
• 50 produce crops
• Lettuce, cantaloupes, tomatoes, carrots,
  watermelon, sweet corn, potatoes, broccoli,
  onions, cabbage, cucumbers

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Farm Bill Issues
Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Snack Program Expand
Authorization Health Impacts Long Term
Direction
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Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Snack Program

• 14 States (350 schools)
• 4 Indian Communities (SD, AZ, NM, 25
  schools)
• Permanent funding of 9 million/year
• FY 07 Expand to CA, AR, GA
• Full implementation of FVSP, NFAPP estimates an
  increase of 1.1 billion farm income

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Farm Bill Issues
Specialty Crop Competitiveness Market
Access Non Tariff Barrier Reduction
Phytosanitary
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Specialty Crop Competitiveness

• Stagnant export growth lack of access to foreign
  markets
• Subsidized foreign competition
• Rapidly increasing production costs
• Increasing import competition from growers in
  nations with minimal regulations
• Labor uncertainty

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Thank you