Urban Transport in China

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Urban Transport in China Car Crazy?
Lee SchipperEMBARQChina Environment Forum, WW
Center Nov 30, 2006
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EMBARQ

• A catalyst for socially, financially, and
  environmentally sound solutions to the problems
  of urban mobility

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EMBARQ

• Established as a unique center within World
  Resources Institute in 2002, EMBARQ is now the
  hub of a network of centers for sustainable
  transport in developing countries.
• Shell Foundation and Caterpillar Foundation are
  EMBARQs Global Strategic Partners, supporting
  EMBARQ projects worldwide
• Additional EMBARQ supporters include
• Hewlett Foundation
• Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs
• BP
• US AID
• Asian Development Bank
• Energy Foundation
• Blue Moon Fund
• US Environmental Protection Agency

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Sustainable Transport These are the Drivers,
not CO2

• Economic Sustainability
• Affordable to users
• Attractive as business
• Each mode or fuel bears full social costs
• Social Sustainability
• Promotes access for all, not just a few
• Builds healthy and solid communities
• Allows equal road space distribution for all
  transport modes
• Minimizes travel time
• Environmental Sustainability
• Minimizes accidents and damage to human health
• Leaves no burdens for future generations
• Reduces greenhouse gas emissions Not Yet

Governance is The Roof Over these
Pillars Integrating Mobility, Security, and Energy
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WORLD PRIMARY OIL USE, 1965-2004 (Source BP)
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World Oil The U.S. and China In Context(All
figures in per capita terms)
U.S. increment in oil use for cars and light
trucks 2002-2003 was half of Chinas total in
2003
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Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by Region
2030
2003
24 Gt
37 Gt
Source IEA World Energy Outlook 2005
Global emissions grow by just over half between
now and 2030, with the bulk of the increase
coming from developing countries
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The Bush Metric of SuccessCO2/GDPChina Has Far
Outpaced the US
Source IEA
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CO2 Emissions from Road Transport
Source IEA
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Access People in China Move 12-14 Km/day,
Urban Americans 40-45 km/day
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Motorization in China Déjà vu All Over Again?
Source EMBARQ
Is rapid urbanization in China and other
countries putting cities and cars on a collision
course?
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Rapid Motorization in Chinahttp//lnweb18.worldba
nk.org/eap/eap.nsf/Attachments/background2/File/
China_Motorization.pdf

• The Growth of the Automobile Industry
• Pillar of national economy or another battering
  ram?
• Popularity increase in demand and foreign
  investment
• Low cost and high cost models, imports
• Historic Trends and Future Projections
• Automobile production from 509,000 in 1990 to 4.4
  million in 2004
• Chinas car stock from well under million in
  1992 to 12 million in 2003
• Increasing contributor to air pollution,
  congestion, traffic fatalities
• New Reality The Car is Out of the Bag
• New Car Fuel Economy Standards 30 MPG (US
  effectively 24 MPG)
• Emission and fuel quality standards catching up
  to US, Europe

1970s rural vehicle
2002 Buick Van
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Cars and Urban Transport in ChinaSymbol for
Much of the World?

• Congestion Cars and Other Traffic
• Buses and people stuck in traffic
• Building more roads makes problem worse
• Tough policies called for by whom?
• Air Pollution Too Many Vehicles
• Enough old smokers to ruin air
• New fuels, vehicles improving
• Emissions from cars could offset improvements
• Traffic Safety People First
• Walkers, cyclists main victims
• Too many kinds of traffic in same place, unequal
  road space distribution
• More cars and speed will kill more people

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EMBARQs Scenarios for China

• Illustrate and Quantify a World We Cant See..
  Yet
• Reasonable estimates for present values
• Growth based on nearby example -- Korea
• Convergence with many other studies in the base
  case
• Quantitative Assumption-Driven Outputs
• Vehicles, vehicle distances, fuel consumption
• Impacts of alternative fuels
• Total CO2 emissions
• Qualitative Results
• Flesh and bones on the base case
• Illustration of impact of fuel efficiency on
  total fuel use
• Illustration of how a livable cities scenario
  might play out

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EMBARQs Scenarios for China

• Base Case China has Korean car/GDP ratio in
  2020
• 120-160 million cars, 12,000 km/car
• 8-8.5 L/100 km if no new measures
• Closer to 2 mn bbl/day oil in 2020
• Oil Saving Scenario 40 as much oil, some CNG
• Japanese/Euro level of fuel prices
• 110-130 million cars, but less driving/car
• Fuel economy standards, some hybrids and CNG
• Integrated Transport - Livable cities with good
  transport
• Much lower car ownership and use avoiding the
  plague
• Very small cars (incl. slow electrics, hybrids)
  to avoid space and congestion problems in cities
• Serious BRT, Metro, car-use restraint, land-use
  planning avoid Mexico

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Chinas New-Car Fuel Economy Standards A Start

• Weight-class based
• Car of given weight cannot use more than a given
  fuel use/km by tests
• Will probably impact SUVs significantly
• Overall Impact Uncertain
• 20-30 impact in each class
• Will keep cars from becoming guzzlers
• Will not prevent larger market shares of heavy,
  fuel intensive cars
• Technology not the problem
• Key is car size, power, utilization
• Manufacturers can choose techs.
• Fuel taxes, externalities next?

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Alternative Fuels or Fools? Tough Choices for
China

• Ethanol and other Biofuels
• Modest experience, but high costs
• Issue of land, water, pollution whats new
  here?
• Scaling up may just be unreasonable
• Fossil Alternatives
• Lots of LPG and CNG, but these not real
  alternatives
• Gas to liquids, but wheres the gas?
• Coal to liquids methanol or synthetic liquids?
• A Third Way? Coal and Electrification?
• Start with hybrids, battery electrics?
• Coal to hydrogen/fuel cells with sequestration?
• Electric drive now for most city vehicles??

Key Element Fuel and Externality Pricing
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Better Urban Transport No Choice!
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The Sustainability Challenge Cars and CO2
Emissions in 2020
Sustainable Urban Mobility Saves Cities, Fuel,
and Above all, Greenhouse Gas Emissions
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GHG In China Not an Crucial Policy Driver

• Little Concrete Action on GHG from Transport
• Wasted fuel, extra air pollution from bad traffic
• Less than 15 of urban trips in cars, yet cities
  stuffed
• Coal for oil could become Chinas GHG nightmare
• Some Motion on Fuel Quality and Fuel Economy
• Increased stringency on fuel quality and
  emissions
• China fuel economy standards, real concern about
  oil
• Moves on fuel taxes likely next step -- revenue
• Lip Service to the Real Threat Urban Immobility
• More vehicle use, congestion, accidents
• Higher health and accident risks
• Policy changes needed soon

Numbers of cars, their Size, Use is Key
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Transport Projects and CO2 Counting Difficult
Bean Counting for China

• Rush to Sell CO2 Avoided in Developing Projects
• Both fuels/vehicles and traffic changes (like
  BRT)
• Most projects are small, changes within noise
• Very difficult to measure or model changes
• Various Mechanisms in Order of Difficulty
• Mayors make feel-good pledges, companies buy
  offsets
• Actions like US Asia/Pacific Consortium mostly
  hot air
• Clean Development Mechanism Tiny compared to the
  problem
• The Challenge for China Finding Negacarbon
• Verification becomes a less than otherwise
  prospect
• Overall growth swamps projects
• Self interest healthy cities, oil imports --
  the real drivers

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Conclusions Will China Decarbonize?

• Urban Transport Solutions is the Umbrella
• Make room for 300 million more urbanites land
  use planning
• Scale up of bus rapid transit
• Next steps restraints on car use (congestion
  pricing?)
• Clean Air Means Fewer Kilometers
• Fuel economy standards a valuable first step
• Real urban transport not just token BRT --
  reform next
• Next steps car restraints, protection for NMT
• Fuel Economy and Alternative Fuels
• Fuel economy is necessary but not sufficient
• Alternative fuels prospects grim competition
  for land
• Main threat/hope coal/decarbonized hydrogen?

Avoiding the Multiple Problems of Too Many
Cars Is Much Easier than Mitigating them when its
too late!
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Lee Schipper schipper_at_wri.org
www.embarq.wri.org