Hurricane Readiness

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Hurricane Readiness Timeline Tools Paul
Hastings ImpactWeather, Inc. [phone] phastin
gs_at_impactweather.com
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• Two Basic Strategies of Hurricane Plans
• Maintain Continuity of Operations
• Provide for an orderly, safe, and appropriate
  shut-in of operations

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• Characteristics of most successful hurricane
  plans
• Most utilize a phased escalation process
• Complexity and costs increase with escalation
• Designed and driven by risk management mindset

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ImpactWeather 8-Phase Hurricane Preparedness Plan
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Strategic Question How to objectively trigger
escalation from one Phase to the next?
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• New TropicsWatch tools for 2006 that can serve as
  communications tools escalation triggers
• HRI Hurricane Risk Indicator
• WCS Worst Case Scenario
• HSI Hurricane Severity Index
• PWI Probability of Wind Impact

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Hurricane Risk Indicator

• Alerts you to a possible hurricane threat at your
  location (within next 6 to 10 days)
• Uses a simple on/off indicator
• Early warning
• For storms before they develop
• For storms that will take more than 5 days to
  reach your area

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Worst Case Scenario

• When is the earliest tropical storm force winds
  could arrive?
• Allows you to see how much time you have for
  different phases of preparation / shutdown
• Assumes by default
• storm movement is directly toward your location
• Forward speed maximum forecasted
• Intensity maximum forecasted
• Wind Field Size maximum quadrant applied to all
  quadrants

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Worst Case Scenario Graphical Output

• Arrival times for 25, 39, 58, 74, 100 mph, max
  winds, and center of storm

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What Was Katrinas Saffir-Simpson Classification
at Landfall?
Category 3
Hurricane Katrina 315PM CDT Sun. Aug. 28
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• HSI Hurricane Severity Index
• Useful in timeline scenarios for factoring in the
  response by the community to a hurricane threat

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Hurricane Severity Index (HSI)
A new way for classifying hurricanes that takes
into consideration more than just maximum surface
winds

• Size (1-25 points)
• Examines the total coverage of the 35, 50,
  65, and 87 knot wind fields
• Intensity (1-25 points)
• Points assigned using the exponential
  relationship between wind speed and the force
  exerted on an object

The Result A 50-point scale that better
represents a tropical cyclones true destructive
potential the Hurricane Severity Index (HSI)
Developed by Chris Hebert and Bob Weinzapfel
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Severe DamageLarge Area
Saffir-Simpson Category
MinimalDamageSmall Area

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Hurricane Severity Index (HSI)

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Same Intensity
Saffir-Simpson Category

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• PWI Probability of Wind Impact
• PWI displays the probability of a given location
  receiving a certain threshold of wind.
• Probabilities are generated for 5 wind fields
• 25 mph
• 39 mph
• 58 mph
• 74 mph
• 100 mph

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Gaussian or Normal Distribution Curve
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Forecast Track in Center
75 Cone Area
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72 Hours From LandfallConfidence Average /
Larger Cone74 mph Wind Radius Indicated
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48 Hours From LandfallConfidence High / Smaller
Cone74 mph Wind Radius Unchanged
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Probability of Wind Impact Corpus Christi, TX
Rita - Advisory 24 - Valid Fri, Sep 23 9PM CDT -
hours before landfall
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Probability of Wind Impact Port Arthur, TX
Rita - Advisory 24 - Valid Fri, Sep 23 9PM CDT -
hours before landfall
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1995 - 2005
185 NS / 90 H / 45 IH / 6 Cat 5
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• Questions?
• Paul Hastings
• ImpactWeather, Inc.
• [phone]
• phastings_at_impactweather.com