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Using Local Employment Dynamics Data to Measure Job Churning

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Title: Using Local Employment Dynamics Data to Measure Job Churning

1
Using Local Employment Dynamics Data to
Measure Job Churning

Presented by
Gary Yakimov
Corporation for a Skilled Workforce
To
ACCRA
November 9, 2006
Tampa, FL

2
Do You Know.

The detailed industries in your local area that
are creating the most new jobs?
Is your job creation competitive with your
neighbors?
The industries that pay the highest wage for new
workers?
The specific types of businesses that are likely
to hire your sons and daughters and pay them a
good wage?
Where your older workforce is most likely to find
success?
How your cluster or sector targets are performing
relative to the time and resources you are
spending on them?
Where is the churn in your labor market?
Where are your jobs located in relationship to
where the people live?

3
Can You Tell Employers

How their turnover rates and separation counts
compare to the industry average for my area?
How their wages for all employees compare to
others in their industry?
How their wages for new hires compare to others
in their industry?
Where there competitors for talented workers are
located?

4
Using LED to Measure Job Churning

LED can answer these questions and more for you
and your organization and local area

5
Participant Introductions

Name, Organization, Role
Familiarity with traditional labor market
information
Familiarity with Local Employment Dynamics
Greatest interest in attending the training

6
Overview of Agenda

Industry Focus
Local Workforce Characteristics by Age and Gender
Top Industries within and across key indicators
Quarterly Workforce Indicators
On the Map
Background on LED
From Industries to Occupations and Skills
Closing Discussion

7
State Participation in LED
Not all LED states are mapping states
8
LED Home Page
9
Industry Focus Key Questions

What are the top industries in my area?
- On any one indicator?
- Across all indicators?
What are the workforce characteristics of key
industries?
How do industries rank within or across various
indicators?

10
Industry Focus Indicator and Demographic Query
11
Industry Focus Query Results
Click on hyperlink to see local workforce details
12
Local Workforce Employment Distribution
13
Local Workforce Other Key Indicators
14
Local Workforce Trends in Average Monthly
Earnings
15
Change Rankings
16
So what? Illinois Critical Skills Shortage
Initiative

Real-life opportunity for LED data application
Data and analysis driving 15m in state
investment over 3 years
Four steps
Identify key industries/groups of employers
Identify occupations with shortages
Ascertain root causes of shortages
Develop solutions to address root causes

17
Identifying Top Industry SectorsSample Area

Hand-Out Region 7 (all 8 indicators, equal
weight)
Top 5 Industries
Transportation Equipment Manufacturing
Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
Electrical Equipment Manufacturing
Ambulatory Health Care Services

Why Transportation Equipment Manufacturing?
13th Quarterly Employment
19th Growth in Employment
3rd New Hires
6th Hiring Growth Rate
1st Job Creation
19th Monthly Earnings
2nd Earnings Growth
2nd New Hire Earnings

18
Industry Focus Review Exercises

What is the top industry in Raleigh-Durham for
Job Creation
Average Monthly Earnings for New Hires
Average Monthly Earnings for All Workers
What are the key characteristics of the local
workforce in those industries?
Discussion What policy or resource decisions
might you make based on this information?

19
Overview of Agenda

Industry Focus
Local Workforce Characteristics by Age and Gender
Top Industries within and across key indicators
Quarterly Workforce Indicators
On the Map
Background on LED
From Industries to Occupations and Skills
Closing Discussion

20
LED Quarterly Workforce Indicators

Total Employment
Net Job Flows
Job Creation
New Hires
Separations
Turnover
Average Monthly Earnings
Average New Hire Earnings

All Quarterly Workforce Indicators can be
analyzed at the detailed industry level
21
QWI Online

Query Boxes
Indicators and Definitions
State and Trend Comparison
Detailed Industries
Comparison Reports
Download Print

22
Comparison Reports
23
QWI Review Exercises

What was the job creation for 19-21 year olds in
the 2nd quarter of 2005 for Raleigh-Durham
compared to 55-64 year olds?
How does the job creation for Raleigh-Durham in
2004-2ndQ compare to the 4 quarter average for
the area?
Which NC workforce area had the highest new hire
earnings in 2005-3rdQ?

24
Overview of Agenda

Industry Focus
Local Workforce Characteristics by Age and Gender
Top Industries within and across key indicators
Quarterly Workforce Indicators
On the Map
Background on LED
From Industries to Occupations and Skills
Closing Discussion

25
Interactive Mapping

Core data set is LED
Origin-destination flows for 2002-2003
Answers questions like
Where are the employers in particular industries
located?
Where are the high wage employment areas?
What is the alignment between where the jobs are
and where people live?
What are the characteristics of the workers
coming into and going out of our area?

26
What GIS Maps Used to Look Like
27
On the Map Participating States
Coming Soon Oklahoma, Maine, All LED States
28
On the Map Query Screen
29
Commuting Shed

Where do residents in an area commute to work?

30
Commute Shed Raleigh-Durham
31
Commute Shed Shed Report
32
Commute Shed Area Profile
33
Labor Shed

Where do job holders working in a given area
live?

34
Labor Shed Raleigh-Durham
35
Labor Shed Shed Report
36
Labor Shed Area Profile
37
Labor Shed Quarterly Workforce Indicators
38

Using LED Mapping for Local Economic Analysis

39
Missouri Tornado Path (shown in red) March 12,
2006
F-Scale F3 between Clever and Nixa Path Length
40 miles Width 1/4 to 1/2 mile Time
1008 1100 P.M.
Source National Weather Service
40
Missouri Tornado Track (March 12, 2006)
Where do people who live in the path of the
tornado work?
41
Missouri Tornado Track (March 12, 2006)
Where do workers employed at jobs located in the
path of the tornado live?
42
Where Workers LiveHurricane Wilma Potential
Landfall Zone

About half of people who work in Charlotte and
Lee Counties live in those counties
Almost half live elsewhere

October 19, 2005
43
Hannibal, MO Quincy, ILInterstate Commuting
and Spatial Profile

Pinpoints local geographies
Flow of workers across state borders
Maps where employees live and where residents
work
Quincy IL employers attract nearly 1,350 MO
residents
Hannibal, MO employers attract only 240 IL
residents

44
Downtown St. LouisProposed Mississippi River
Bridge Project
45
St. Charles, MO and East Alton, ILCross-state
Commuting Patterns
46
Overview of Agenda

Industry Focus
Local Workforce Characteristics by Age and Gender
Top Industries within and across key indicators
Quarterly Workforce Indicators
On the Map
Background on LED
From Industries to Occupations and Skills
Closing Discussion

47
What is LED?

Local
State, County, sub-County, Metro Area, Workforce
Investment Area
Employment
Demographics (age, gender)
Industry (NAICS, SIC)
Earnings
Dynamics
Timing (quarterly, historical back to 1990)
Worker employment change (new hires, separations,
turnover rates)
Firm employment change (firm job gains and
losses)

48
What LED is Not

Is not a picture of today but rather about 9
months rear view image
Is not occupation specific but rather
industry-based
Is not yet distinguishable by race or other
demographic characteristics other than age and
gender
Is not a static program or web page (pending new
web screens, new nomenclature, new tools, new
state partners, etc.)

49
How Does It Work?
Surveys
Administrative Records
Censuses
Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics
Program (LEHD)
Local Immigration Dynamics
Local Employment Dynamics
Local Transportation Dynamics
Maps
QWI Online
Reports
50
Clients
Questions
Businesses Economic development agencies Chambers
of commerce Federal, state and local agencies
Where are the workers? How much are they paid?
Indicators
Workforce Investment Boards Chambers of
commerce School career counselors Job search
professionals Businesses Federal, state, and
local agencies
Geography
Where are the jobs? How much do they pay? Who
needs training?
Demography
Location
How can workers get to their jobs? Where should
a business locate?
Businesses Transportation planners Federal, state
and local agencies
51
Role of State Labor Market Information Offices

Traditional LMI available
Industry and occupational employment and wages
for current period, historical, and projected
Employment, unemployment, and labor force
Other information varies by state
LMI Role in the LED Project
State consortium guiding the LED work
Technical assistance to Boards, others
Creation of Customized Reports

52
Four e-Learning Modules Site Tour, Industry
Focus, QWI Online and On the Map
53
Overview of Agenda

Industry Focus
Local Workforce Characteristics by Age and Gender
Top Industries within and across key indicators
Quarterly Workforce Indicators
On the Map
Background on LED
From Industries to Occupations and Skills
Closing Discussion

54
Industry Staffing Patterns

For 3,4,5 digit NAICS sectors http//www.bls.gov/o
es/current/oessrci.htm
Handout Healthcare Industry Staffing Patterns
Handout Training and Education Categories

55
What is ONET?

Developed and maintained by U.S. DOL, Employment
and Training Administration
Comprehensive database of worker attributes and
job characteristics.
Replaces the Dictionary of Occupational Titles
(DOT)
Provides a common language for defining and
describing occupations.
Provides occupational characteristics through
technology
Contains detailed occupational characteristics
for all defined occupations
Provides information on-line and through
electronic downloads, bringing occupational
information into the technological age

56
Important ONET Web Pages

Main Data page
http//online.onetcenter.org/
Understanding the components
http//online.onetcenter.org/help/onet/database
Resource Center
http//www.onetcenter.org/
ONET Consortium
http//www.onetcenter.org/whatsnew.html

57
ONET The Main Page
58
How to Find Occupations
59
Example of Critical OccupationsGeneral and
Operations Managers

Work Tasks
Direct and coordinate activities of businesses or
departments concerned with the production,
pricing, sales, and/or distribution of products.
Manage staff, preparing work schedules and
assigning specific duties.
Review financial statements, sales and activity
reports, and other performance data to measure
productivity and goal achievement and to
determine areas needing cost reduction and
program improvement.
Establish and implement departmental policies,
goals, objectives, and procedures, conferring
with board members, organization officials, and
staff members as necessary.
Determine staffing requirements, and interview,
hire and train new employees, or oversee those
personnel processes.

Knowledge Requirements
Administration and Management (92)
Customer and Personal Service (85)
English Language (82)
Law and Government (73)
Sales and Marketing (71)
Personnel and Human Resources (71)
Mathematics (69)
Public Safety and Security (65)
Economics and Accounting (64)
Production and Processing (61)

Source ONET On-Line
60
Example of Critical OccupationsManagement
Analysts

Work Tasks
Review forms and reports, and confer with
management and users about format, distribution,
and purpose, and to identify problems and
improvements.
Develop and implement records management program
for filing, protection, and retrieval of records,
and assure compliance with program.
Interview personnel and conduct on-site
observation to ascertain unit functions, work
performed, and methods, equipment, and personnel
used.
Prepare manuals and train workers in use of new
forms, reports, procedures or equipment,
according to organizational policy.
Design, evaluate, recommend, and approve changes
of forms and reports.

Knowledge Requirements
Administration and Management (91)
English Language (64)
Education and Training (61)
Mathematics (59)
Personnel and Human Resources (52)
Clerical (48)
Economics and Accounting (45)
Computers and Electronics (39)
Psychology (34)
Production and Processing (30)

Source ONET On-Line
61
Example of Critical OccupationsFirst Line
Supervisors and Managers of Retail Trade Workers

Work Tasks
Provide customer service by greeting and
assisting customers, and responding to customer
inquiries and complaints.
Monitor sales activities to ensure that customers
receive satisfactory service and quality goods.
Assign employees to specific duties.
Direct and supervise employees engaged in sales,
inventory-taking, reconciling cash receipts, or
in performing services for customers.
Inventory stock and reorder when inventory drops
to a specified level.

Knowledge Requirements
Customer and Personal Service (73)
Administration and Management (63)
English Language (52)
Mathematics (48)
Personnel and Human Resources (45)
Food Production (38)
Sales and Marketing (37)
Public Safety and Security (36)
Clerical (33)
Economics and Accounting (33)

Source ONET On-Line
62
Exercise Occupations and their Characteristics

You already identified top industries for your
local area.
What are the top 3 occupations in that industry
(by of employment)?
For the top occupations identify top 3
Work Tasks
Work Activities
Knowledge Requirements
Skills Requirements
How would you use this information to influence
program offerings and curriculum decisions in
community and technical colleges?
How would you use this information to engage
private sector partners?
What other information in the ONET Details did
you find useful?