Lecture Eleven

1
Lecture Eleven

• More on Minsky
• Modelling endogenous money/debt deflation

2
Brief HET of Minsky

• Parents met at a Communist Party social function
• No prizes for guessing early formative
  influences!
• Fought in US Army in WWII, decamped post-war to
  do a degree
• Educated during McCarthyist communist witch
  hunt periodno mention ever of Marx in his
  research, for obvious reasons
• Began with degree in mathematics, attempted to
  build mathematical model of trade cycle based on
  Hickss difference equation model, extended by
  Kaleckis principle of increasing risk (last
  lecture)

3
Brief HET of Minsky

• Kalecki argued investment restrained by
  increasing risk (uncertainty-style!) as capital
  grows
• Minsky used this at macro level to give an
  otherwise explosive model of trade cycle a
  turning point
• Model was

• Where Minsky made b a variable dependent on
  financial conditions
• b declines as economy grows, thus giving turning
  point to upward explosive movement
• "the accelerator coefficient ... is in part based
  on the productive efficiency of investment, but
  it is also related to the willingness of
  investors to take risks and the terms in which
  investors can finance their endeavours..."
  (Minsky 1965 261)

4
Brief HET of Minsky

• Model went nowhere, but Minsky began to explore
  implications of finance for economic behaviour
• Initially tried to do this from conventional
  understanding of Keynes
• If we make the Keynesian assumption that
  consumption demand is independent of interest
  rates, but assume that investment demand, and
  hence the b coefficient, depends on interest
  rates, then a rising set of interest rates will
  lower the b coefficient. (Minsky 1965, 1982
  262)
• Also got nowhere
• Then, one day, by chance, he read Keyness 1937
  papers

5
Brief HET of Minsky

• In 1969, Minsky states that his own ideas about
  uncertainty "seem to be consistent with those of
  Keynes" (1969a, 1982 191, footnote 6), citing
  Keynes 1937
• Eventually concludes
• capitalism is inherently flawed, being prone to
  booms, crises and depressions. This instability,
  in my view, is due to characteristics the
  financial system must posses if it is to be
  consistent with full-blown capitalism. Such a
  financial system will be capable of both
  generating signals that induce an accelerating
  desire to invest and of financing that
  accelerating investment. (Minsky 1969b 224)

6
Brief HET of Minsky

• Basic model outlined in previous lecture from
  now on, consider how to produce economic
  (mathematical) model of process Minsky describes
• First, some mathematical preliminaries
• Minskys model essentially dynamic, and therefore
  cannot be modelled either using equilibrium tools
  or static drawings
• Basic tool of dynamic analysis is the
  differential equation
• Quick introduction to this, then
• Graphical tools for simulating dynamic processes
• Insights from endogenous money argument

7
Dynamic modellingan introduction

• Dynamic systems necessarily involve time
• Simplest expression starts with definition of the
  percentage rate of change of a variable
• Population grows at 1 a year
• Percentage rate of change of a variable x is
• Slope of function w.r.t. time (dx/dt)
• Divided by current value of variable (x)
• So this is mathematically

• This can be rearranged to

• Looks very similar to differentiation, which you
  have done but essential difference rate of
  change of x is some function of value of x itself.

8
Dynamic modellingan introduction

• Dependence of rate of change of variable on its
  current value makes solution of equation much
  more difficult than solution of standard
  differentiation problem
• Differentiation also normally used by economists
  to find minima/maxima of some function
• Profit is maximised where the rate of change of
  total revenue equals the rate of change of total
  cost (blah blah blah)
• Take functions for TR, TC
• Differentiate
• Equate
• Easy! (also wrong, but thats another story)
• However differential equations

9
Dynamic modellingan introduction

• Have to be integrated to solve them

Rearrange
Integrate
Solve
Take exponentials

• Constant is value of x at time t0

10
Dynamic modellingan introduction

• Simple model like this gives
• Exponential growth if agt0
• Exponential decay if alt0
• But unlike differentiation technique (most
  functions can be differentiated)
• Most functions cant be integrated no simple
  solution can be found and also
• Models can also be inter-related
• x can depend on itself and y
• y can depend on itself and x
• Models end up much more complicated

11
Dynamic modellingan introduction

• Simple example relationship of fish and sharks.
• In the absence of sharks, assume fish population
  grows smoothly
• The rate of growth of the fish population is a
  p.a.

Rearrange
Integrate
Solve
Exponentials
12
Dynamic modellingan introduction

• Simulating gives exponential growth if agt0

13
Dynamic modellingan introduction

• Same thing can be done for sharks in the absence
  of fish
• Rate of growth of shark population equals c p.a.
• But here c is negative

• But we know fish and sharks interact
• The rate of change of fish populations is also
  some (negative) function of how many Sharks there
  are

• The rate of change of shark population is also
  some (positive) function of how many Fish there
  are

14
Dynamic modellingan introduction

• Now we have a model where the rate of change of
  each variable (fish and sharks) depends on its
  own value and the value of the other variable
  (sharks and fish)

• This can still be solved, with more effort (dont
  worry about the maths of this!)

15
Dynamic modellingan introduction

• But for technical reasons, this is the last level
  of complexity that can be solved
• Add an additional (nonlinearly related)
  variablesay, seagrass levelsand model cannot be
  solved
• But there are other ways
• Mathematicians have shown that unstable processes
  can be simulated
• Engineers have built tools for simulating dynamic
  processes.

16
Dynamic modellingan introduction

• Express model as vector equation

• Provide values for constants a,b,c,d, initial
  values for Fish, Shark numbers (ratio a/b gives
  equilibrium for sharks, c/d for fish)

17
Dynamic modellingan introduction

• Express as vector differential equation and
  simulate using Runge-Kutta algorithm (like
  sophisticated Taylors expansion)

18
Dynamic modellingan introduction

• Graph results

• A far from equilibrium model with just 2
  variables and constant coefficients
• System will never reach equilibrium
• (What odds that the actual economy is in
  equilibrium)

19
Dynamic modellingan introduction

• Thats the hard way now for the easy way
• Differential equations can be simulated using
  flowcharts
• The basic idea
• Numerically integrate the rate of change of a
  function to work out its current value
• Tie together numerous variables for a dynamic
  system
• Consider simple population growth
• Population grows at 2 per annum

20
Dynamic modellingan introduction

• Representing this as mathematics, we get

• Next stage of a symbolic solution is

• Symbolically you would continue, putting dt on
  the RHS but instead, numerically, you integrate

• As a flowchart, you get

• Read it backwards, and its the same equation

• Feed in an initial value (say, 18 million) and we
  can simulate it (over, say, 100 years)

21
Dynamic modellingan introduction

• MUCH more complicated models than this can be
  built

22
Dynamic modellingan introduction

• Models can have multiple interacting variables,
  multiple layers for example, a racing car
  simulation

23
Dynamic modellingan introduction

• System dynamics block has these components

• And this block has the following components

24
Dynamic modellingan introduction

• This is not toy software engineers use this
  technology to design actual cars, planes,
  rockets, power stations, electric circuits

25
Dynamic modellingan introduction

• Lets use it to build the Fish/Shark model
• Start with population model, only
• Change Population to Fish
• Alter design to allow different initial numbers

• This is equivalent to first half of

• To add second half, have to alter part of model
  to LHS of integrator

26
Dynamic modellingan introduction

• Sharks just shown as constant here

• Sharks substract from fish growth rate

• Now add shark dynamics

27
Dynamic modellingan introduction

• Shark population declines exponentially, just as
  fish population rises
• (numbers obviously unrealistic)
• Now add interaction between two species

28
Dynamic modellingan introduction

• Model now gives same cycles as seen in
  mathematical simulation.

• Now to apply this to endogenous money!

29
Dynamic modellingan introduction

• Some general principles
• Dynamic models can (usually do) have unstable and
  multiple equilibria
• Systems often remain in permanent but changing
  disequilibrium
• Nonlinear relations essential for interesting
  results (cycles without breakdown), but
• Nonlinearity can arise naturally (e.g., price
  times quantity gives nonlinear results) rather
  than out of arbitrary assumed nonlinear
  behaviours

30
Recap on principles of endogenous money

• (1) Kydland and Prescott rule out deterministic
  causes of business cycles on grounds that
• "Theories with deterministic cyclical laws of
  motion may a priori have had considerable
  potential for accounting for business cycles but
  in fact they have failed to do so. They have
  failed because cyclical laws of motion do not
  arise as equilibrium behaviour for economics with
  empirically reasonable preferences and
  technologiesthat is, for economies with
  reasonable statements about people's ability and
  willingness to substitute." (KP 5)
• BUNKUM! Cant rule out far-from-equilibrium model
  on basis of behaviour of a different equilibrium
  model!
• On the othe hand

31
Recap on principles of endogenous money

• Circuitist results from Kaleckian algebra
• Money prices independent of quantity of money,
  etc
• But Kaleckian identities presume equilibrium
  while model of money formation required
  disequilibrium otherwise level of money in
  economy falls to zero
• An assumption is therefore required for the
  existence of a money stock, namely that
  wage-earners spend their money incomes gradually
  over time It is a necessary assumption if we do
  not want money to disappear altogether from the
  system. (6)
• Need base model that generates cyclical,
  far-from-equilibrium behaviour

32
Recap on principles of endogenous money

• KP working from the data (rather than
  theoretical leanings, as earlier)
• "This finding that the real wage behaves in a
  reasonably strong procyclical manner is counter
  to a widely held belief in the literature." (KP
  13-14)
• Income distribution dynamics form part of the
  trade cycle

33
Recap on principles of endogenous money

• Model has to give credit a key role in cycles
• "The fact that the transaction component of real
  cash balances (M1) moves contemporaneously with
  the cycle while the much larger nontransaction
  component (M2) leads the cycle suggests that
  credit arrangements could play a significant role
  in future business cycle theory. Introducing
  money and credit into growth theory in a way that
  accounts for the cyclical behaviour of monetary
  as well as real aggregates is an important open
  problem in economics." (17)
• Credit and debt go hand in hand
• Credit money carries with it debt obligations
  (whereas fiat or commodity money does not),
  therefore debt dynamics are an important part of
  the monetary system

34
Recap on principles of endogenous money

• Blowout in inside to outside money ratios,
  but Debt to broader money measures (M2, M3)
  fairly constant
• Debt a proxy for credit

(Dip in M2,3/M1 rise in Debt/M2,3 ratios due to
bailout activities in post-87/9 slump)
35
Recap on principles of endogenous money

• Empirical work by Fama and French (Efficient
  Markets Hypothesis proponents) finds
• Debt seems to be the residual variable in
  financing decisions. Investment increases debt,
  and higher earnings tend to reduce debt. (1997)
• The source of financing most correlated with
  investment is long-term debt These correlations
  confirm the impression that debt plays a key role
  in accommodating year-by-year variation in
  investment. (1998)

36
Recap on principles of endogenous money

• Key activity in capitalist system is
  accumulation
• Marx sees market economy as dominated by desire
  of capitalists to accumulate wealth
• Accumulate! Accumulate! That is Moses and the
  prophets! (Capital I, Ch 24.3 p. 558 Progress
  Press)
• Store of value and unit of account crucial here
  what matters to capitalists is not consumption
  per se, but accumulation. Abstract unit by which
  to measure accumulation therefore vital
• Accumulation of assets (bank balances, productive
  capital) key activity in capitalism

37
Recap on principles of endogenous money

• Key Circuitist insight cannot collapse banks and
  firms into one sector
• Banks and firms must be considered as two
  distinct kinds of agents. Firms are present in
  the market as sellers or buyers of commodities
  and make recourse to banks in order to perform
  their payments banks on the other hand produce
  means of payment, and act as clearing houses
  among firms. In any model of a monetary economy,
  banks and firms cannot be aggregated into one
  single sector. (Graziani 4)
• Need to separate bank activities accumulation
  from firm activities accumulation

38
Recap on principles of endogenous money

• Fisher key role of excessive debt and falling
  prices on economic processes
• Theory nonequilibrium in nature
• argues that we may tentatively assume that,
  ordinarily and within wide limits, all, or almost
  all, economic variables tend, in a general way,
  towards a stable equilibrium
• but though stable, equilibrium is so delicately
  poised that, after departure from it beyond
  certain limits, instability ensues (Fisher 1933
  339).
• Key roles of accumulation of debt and price
  dynamics out of equilibrium

39
Recap on principles of endogenous money

• Minsky on impact of Big Government?
• Anti-cyclical spending and taxation of government
  enables debts to be repaid
• Renewal of cycle once debt levels reduced
• Stability is not avoidance of cycles, but
  avoidance of complete breakdown

40
Recap on principles of endogenous money

• Can blend all these insights into model of
  financial instability
• Cyclical model of real economy Goodwins
  predator-prey model
• Driven by Phillips curve
• Add debt as source of investment credit (a la
  Fama French)
• Debt as proxy for credit (endogenous money
  component, accommodating as per Moore)
• Government counter-cyclical spending as
  stabiliser a la Minsky
• Markup price dynamics (commodities) and
  expectation price dynamics (assets) as further
  destabilisers

41
Modelling Minsky Endogenous Money

• First stage Goodwins predator-prey model of
  Marxs cyclical growth theory provides
  foundation of cyclical economy with
  far-from-equilibrium dynamics (Fishers
  Circuitist insights)
• a rise in the price of labor resulting from
  accumulation of capital implies ... accumulation
  slackens in consequence of the rise in the price
  of labour, because the stimulus of gain is
  blunted. The rate of accumulation lessens but
  with its lessening, the primary cause of that
  lessening vanishes, i.e. the disproportion
  between capital and exploitable labour power. The
  mechanism of the process of capitalist production
  removes the very obstacles that it temporarily
  creates. The price of labor falls again to a
  level corresponding with the needs of the
  self-expansion of capital, whether the level be
  below, the same as, or above the one which was
  normal before the rise of wages took place...

42
Modelling Minsky Endogenous Money

• Marxs model
• High wages--gtlow investment--gtlow growth--gtrising
  unemployment--gtfalling wage demands--gtincreased
  profit share--gtrising investment--gthigh
  growth--gthigh employment--gtHigh wages cycle
  continues
• Goodwin draws analogy with biology
  predator-prey models
• Rate of growth of prey (fish--gtcapitalists!)
  depends ively on food supply and -ively
  interactions with predator (shark--gtworkers)
• Rate of growth of predator depends -ively on
  number of predators and ively on interactions
  with prey
• OK now lets build it. First, the maths

43
Modelling Minsky Endogenous Money

• First stage Goodwins predator-prey model of
  Marxs cyclical growth theory
• Causal chain
• Capital (K) determines Output (Y)
• Output determines employment (L)
• Employment determines wages (w)
• Wages (w?L) determine profit (P)
• Profit determines investment (I)
• Investment I determines capital K
• chain is closed

accelerator
Chain is closed
productivity
Rate of change terms vital
Phillips curve
Investment function
Depreciation
44
Modelling Minsky Endogenous Money

• So how does that look in flowcharts?
• Lets do the rates of change first
• If we stick to Goodwins capitalists invest all
  their profits, the investment to capital relation
  is easy

45
Modelling Minsky Endogenous Money

• Next step is easyoutput is capital stock divided
  by the accelerator

• Output divided by labour productivity gives the
  necessary employment level
• Employment divided by the available workforce
  gives us the rate of employment
• So we need a productivity component and a
  population component

46
Modelling Minsky Endogenous Money

• Constant rate of growth of productivity means
  exponential growth over time

• Ditto for population

47
Modelling Minsky Endogenous Money

• Output divided by labour productivity gives
  needed number of workers

48
Modelling Minsky Endogenous Money

• Workforce divided by population gives rate of
  employment

• Now things get a bit messy, so we hide bits we
  know about in compound blocks

49
Modelling Minsky Endogenous Money

• The same model, with internal complexity
  simplified by compound blocks

• Now we need a wage change blockemployment rate
  determines rate of change of wages
• Wage change function more complicated because
  involves Phillips curve (Phillips researched
  the stats in the first place to build a model
  like this)
• Next component is generalised exponential
  function set to reproduce same fit as Phillips
  curve

50
Modelling Minsky Endogenous Money

• Feed in
• minimum rate of change (-4)
• (x,y) coordinates for one point (.96,0)
• Slope at this point (2)
• And you get the exponential curve that fits these
  values

• In flowchart form, this is

51
Modelling Minsky Endogenous Money

• Sometimes an equation is easier to read, isnt it?

• Nonetheless, if we feed the employment rate in
  one end, we get the wage change out the other

• Now we need to multiply this by the current wage
  to get the rate of change of wages

52
Modelling Minsky Endogenous Money

• Wage change function

• So now the whole system is

53
Modelling Minsky Endogenous Money

• Now we need to work out profit
• Profit Output Wages
• Wages Wage Rate times Employment

54
Modelling Minsky Endogenous Money

• Since in the simple Goodwin model, capitalists
  invest all their profits, we simply need to link
  profit to capital (whose input is investment) and
  we have built the model

55
Modelling Minsky Endogenous Money

• Testing this out by adding some graphs if it
  works, we should get cycles in the employment
  rate

56
Modelling Minsky Endogenous Money

• Voila! Now to tidy things up a bit using compound
  blocks

57
Modelling Minsky Endogenous Money

• Now at last we have the basis on which to build a
  Minsky model

58
Modelling Minsky Endogenous Money

• Essential step to introduce Minsky/endogenous
  money is debt
• For debt, essential that (at least) capitalists
  wish to invest more than they earn
• Debt seems to be the residual variable in
  financing decisions. Investment increases debt,
  and higher earnings tend to reduce debt. (Fama
  French 1997)
• The source of financing most correlated with
  investment is long-term debt These correlations
  confirm the impression that debt plays a key role
  in accommodating year-by-year variation in
  investment. (Fama French 1998)
• A nonlinear investment function needed for firms
  investment to be a function of rate of profit
  Lowinvest nothing Mediuminvest as much as
  earn Highinvest more than earn

59
Modelling Minsky Endogenous Money

• Important (normal) feature of dynamic modelling
  increasing generality of model makes it more
  realistic
• No need for absurd assumptions to maintain
  fiction of equilibrium, coherent micro/macro
  behaviour
• Use same exponential form as for Phillips, but
  with different parameters
• InvestmentProfit at profit rate of 3
• InvestmentgtProfit at profit rate gt 3
• InvestmentltProfit at profit rate lt 3
• Slope of change at 32
• Minimum investment 1 output (depreciation
  easily introduced)

60
Modelling Minsky Endogenous Money

• Makes no substantive difference to model
  behaviour

61
Modelling Minsky Endogenous Money

• But prepares the way for introducing debt to
  finance investment when investmentgtprofits
• Rate of change of debt is investment minus
  profits
• Profits now net of interest on outstanding debt

62
Modelling Minsky Endogenous Money

• Investment increases debt profit decreases it
• Debt rises if investment exceeds profits
• Debt also increases due to interest on
  outstanding debt

• Profit is now net of both wages and interest
  payments

• And the whole model is

63
Modelling Minsky Endogenous Money

• Notice debt becomes negative
• Capitalists accumulate
• Equilibrium is stable in Fishers sense

64
Modelling Minsky Endogenous Money

• we may tentatively assume that, ordinarily and
  within wide limits, all, or almost all, economic
  variables tend, in a general way, towards a
  stable equilibrium (Fisher 1933 339)
• BUT
• This stability is also of the kind Fisher
  describes, that it is so delicately poised that,
  after departure from it beyond certain limits,
  instability ensues (Fisher 1933 339).
• Start further from equilibrium, and the system
  becomes unstable

65
Modelling Minsky Endogenous Money

• Higher initial level of unemployment leads to
  disaster

• Technical reason requires advanced maths to
  explain, but

66
Modelling Minsky Endogenous Money

• Technical reason is that nonlinear model can be
• Locally stable around equilibrium (where linear
  component of system dominates) but
• Globally unstable past a certain range, higher
  power forces overwhelm linear component
• Just as below one, a3 is less than a2 is less
  than a
• But above 1, a3 is bigger than a2 is bigger
  than a
• So if you start too far from equilibrium, you
  will suffer a debt-induced collapse
• How do you get far from equilibrium? Tendency
  Minsky outlined for euphoric expectations to
  lead capitalists into excessive
  investment/optimism during a boom

67
Modelling Minsky Endogenous Money

• CAVEAT!
• Dynamic modelling can capture many elements of
  Minskys theory and endogenous money, BUT
• There are elements that cannot be modelled this
  way
• Evolutionary change in the system
• Non-systemic eventssuch as for example, people
  being persuaded by the failure of the system that
  the system must be changed
• There is a limit to modellinginstitutions and
  evolution and human agency must also be
  understood
• But we do at least get a better handle on the
  system by knowing its characteristic dynamics
  (even if we ignore that these characteristics can
  evolve)

68
Modelling Minsky Endogenous Money

• Finally (without bringing in price dynamics),
  government
• In Minskys view, government spending works by
• providing firms with cash flow they otherwise
  would not have during a slump, thus letting them
  pay off their debts
• Restraining corporate cash flow during a boom,
  thus attenuating how euphoric expectations can
  get
• Both these can be modelled by presuming that the
  government pays a subsidy (which can be negative)
  straight to firms, where that change in that
  subsidy is a function of the rate of employment

• Use same generalised exponential for g(), with
  different parameters

69
Modelling Minsky Endogenous Money

• Revised function gives negative exponential slope
• Government
• Keeps subsidy constant if unemployment5
• Increases it gradually if Ugt5
• Reduces gradually if Ult5

• Profit is now net of wages, interest, and
  government subsidy

70
Modelling Minsky Endogenous Money

• We get cyclical instability (depending on slope
  parameter)

71
Conclusion

• Essentials of Financial Instability Hypothesis
  can be modelled using dynamic tools
• Nuances of FIH require evolutionary perspective
• Evolution of financial intermediaries over time
• Still have to add prices (done in mathematical
  format)
• Result is possibility for the Fisher paradox
• Falling prices increase real debt burden even as
  actual debt levels reduced
• Wrap up main polemic weakness of debt-deflation
  hypothesisinability of proponents (Fisher,
  Keynes, Minsky) to develop mathematical
  modeleasily overcome with modern dynamic methods

72
Conclusion

• So if we can model it, can it happen?
• Japanese experience of
• Bubble economy during 1980s
• Debt-induced downturn with deflation in 1990s,
  beginning of 2000s
• USA system with obvious (in hindsight for some,
  during the event for others!)
• Bubble Economy of 1990s
• massive mal-directed investment in
  telecommunications, internet
• Huge (historically high) debt in both physical
  and financial sectors
• Appears on brink of debt-deflation now

73
Conclusion

• What to do if a debt-deflation happens? Not much!
• Capitalism fundamentally unstable, so escaping
  from a collapse therefore no picnic essential
  lesson is we should avoid debt deflations in the
  first place
• by developing and maintaining institutions and
  policies which enforce "a 'good financial
  society' in which the tendency by businesses and
  bankers to engage in speculative finance is
  constrained" (Minsky 1977, 1982 69). These
  include
• close and discretionary supervision of financial
  institutions and financial arrangements
• non-discretionary countercyclical fiscal
  arrangements
• a bias towards income equity rather than
  inequality.
• But if we fail (as we have!) on these fronts?

74
Conclusion

• Deliberate inflation
• Problem is one of two price levels
• Asset bubble has given asset price level which is
  unsustainable in terms of price level (and hence
  profit margins) from sale of commodities
• Two ways to get in balance
• Either deflate assets, or
• Inflate commodities
• Former approach exacerbates the problemfalling
  asset prices will cause rising debt burden,
  declining commodity prices (Fishers paradox)
• Latter may right the system, but at short-term
  cost to financiers.

75
Conclusion

• How to do it?
• Japancomparatively simple
• Japan a creditor nation, vast majority of
  (crippling) Japanese financial system debts owed
  to Japanese lenders (huge apparent household
  savings)
• Price inflation via fiscal/monetary stimulus
  ineffective
• (with good reason!) Super-cautious Japanese
  simply increase savings
• Post Keynesian theory (no diminishing marginal
  productivity) indicates fiscal/monetary stimulus
  wont necessarily increase prices anyway
• But price inflation via deliberate centralised
  wage increase would work

76
Conclusion

• America? Tough and highly unlikely
• USA now worlds biggest debtor nation
• International debts a fraction of domestic debt,
  but all the same
• Economy not as self-contained as Japan
• Cant easily reflate prices internally
• Even more resistant to meddling with price system
  than Japan
• But more likely to break the rules when all
  else fails for many years.
• Minsky/endogenous money analysis predicts a
  pretty rough start to the 3rd Millenium

77
Conclusion

• Increase in wages necessarily causes (lessersay
  by 2-3 depending on productivity) increase in
  consumer prices
• Consumers forced to spend to purchase current
  commodities
• Inflationary spiral would feed through system for
  several years, reducing real debt burden
• But policy highly unlikely to be adopted
• Inflation-averse and market-fundamentalist
  economists likely to oppose such measures, even
  in Japan
• Many years more of stagnation likely