Embracing The Future

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Embracing The Future
2017

• An Economic Vision for a Sustainable Community

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Agenda/Purpose

• 2017 Team Analysis
• Dialog
• Build Understanding
• Develop a Shared Vision

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Participants

• Estes Park Special District Board Members
• Citizen Information Academy (CIA) Graduates
• Estes Park Economic Advisory Council (EP2017)
• Town of Estes Park Board of Trustees
• Rocky Mountain National Park

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Sustainable Economy Quality Lifestyle
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Town Board Goal 1

• Develop an economic vision which
• recognizes and supports the economic component of
  tourism
• looks at future opportunities for diversity
• creates an overriding plan or strategy for future
  economic development.

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Visioning Process

• Market and Economic Data
• RRC Economic Development Study
• Baseline
• How were doing
• Macro Trends
• Issues Opportunities
• Strengths weaknesses
• Who we are/arent

Goal Team Town Staff Board
EP 2017 Economic Advisory Committee Estes Valley
Businesses Residents
2017 ECONOMIC VISION
Themes
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EP 2017 Economic Advisory Committee
Bill Pinkham Town Trustee Chairman Bill
Almond Holiday Inn Rocky Mountain/Trail
Ridge Jim Bangs Estes Park Lumber Eric
Blackhurst Anderson Realty Management John
Ericson Jr. EP Storage/Serendipity Paul
Fishman 14ers Cafe Donald Gleich Jr. Metal
Container Corporation Bruce Grant The Estes
Group John Hannon Rocky Mountain National
Park Judy Lamy Retired Ken Larson All Budget
Inn David Novic Warming House Brad Sishc Bank
of Colorado Donna Stiens Retired John
Tucker Sunnyside Knoll Resort Danial
Via Wild Spirits Ltd
Doug Frisbee
Rita Kurelja
Goal Team
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Estes Park Past and Future
What Lies Ahead?
9/11
Iraq War
Energy Crisis
?
Baby Boomers born
WW II
Depression
WW I
National Park
Cheap Energy
Energy Costs Growing
FO Stanley
Stage/Tourism
Joel Estes
Pioneers
Hunting
Radio
Magazines
TV
Color TV
Internet
Home Computer
Newspaper
Cell Phone
1859
1903
2006
2017
Pioneering
Mountaineering
Tourism
Resort for affluent traveler
National Vacation Destination
Day Trippers
Horse Foot
Wagon Stage
Automobile
Commercial Jets
Front Range Growth Explosion
Commercial Air Travel
Interstate Highways
Disposable income shrinking
Disposable income Growing
Local Economy------? Regional Economy
------------------------------? National Economy
-----------------------------------? Global
Economy
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• We Are Not. A Magnet for Industrial
  Development

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• Who We Are. A Premier Mountain Resort
  Community

Gateway to Rocky Mountain National Park
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Estes Park General Fund Revenues and Expenditures
Revenues
Taxes
Expenditures
Licenses Permits
Intergovernmental
Other Financing Sources
General Government
Other Financing Uses
Charges for Services
Public Safety
Operating Transfers In
Operating Transfers Out
General Fund
Fines
Public Works
Rental Income
Culture Recreation
Investment Income
Miscellaneous
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Sales Tax revenue is key to economic
sustainability
(000)
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How are we doing

• All mountain resort communities struggling to
  expand seasons.
• Estes season is upside down vs. most others.
• Estes performance substantially better than other
  mountain resort towns. Retail struggling in all
  the mountain towns.
• Sales tax revenues more dependant on lodging and
  restaurants due to changes in consumer spending
  and retail trends.

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What Lies Ahead???

• Challenges and Opportunities

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Challenges and Opportunities

• Demographics
• Housing
• Retail Base
• Energy
• Disposable Income
• Transportation and Parking
• Mountain Resort Competition
• Tax Structure
• Infrastructure

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Demographics
A growing retirement population
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Estes Valley Demographics

• People from all walks of life, but a bit
  different from the norm
• Older population
• Many recently arrived
• Higher formal education
• Greater proportion of retirees and professionals
• Population doubles during peak season

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National Demographic Changes

• Aging population and retirement of boomers.
• Over 60 group will reach 45 of population
• Changing expectations and needs.
• Growing shortage of 24-45 year olds will impact
  workforce
• Significant impact on Estes Valley

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Growing retiree population is changing Estes
Valley dynamicsYounger families are needed for
a balanced community
2000 Census
2020 Estimate
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Community Dynamics Changing

• Boomers and retirees bring suburban values.
• Think of themselves as young, not seniors.
• Active lifestyle. Expect recreational amenities.
• Building lifetime vacation dream homes.
• Increase in second home owners.
• Detached from community issues.
• Demanding. Little product loyalty. Less
  tolerant.
• Candidates for targeted retail and quality
  restaurants.

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Retail
Struggling Opportunities Emerging
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Local Retail is Struggling Sales Tax Impact
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Changing Value Proposition

• Transplants and boomers
• Age expectations - needs
• Income levels
• Quality restaurants merchandise
• Construction benefits.
• Higher energy costs incentive to buy locally
• Estes increasingly attractive as tourist
  destination

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• Creating attractive and functional retail
  environments is particularly important to resort
  communities because public spaces are an
  intrinsic part of a visitors experience.
• Resort retail is more than a necessary
  convenience. To operate successfully, resort
  retail requires a subtle blend of sociability,
  diverse activities, pedestrian linkages and
  ambiance.
• (Aspen Retail Analysis BBC Research and
  Consulting for Aspen City Council January 2003)

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Housing Costs
Rapidly outpacing employee affordability
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Land and housing costs are escalating

• Affordability already an issue for many residents
  and employees of the Estes Valley who provide
  essential services.
• Front Range urban areas attractive to younger
  individuals and families.
• affordable housing
• broad offering of schools, retail, and arts and
  culture
• Hard to attract and keep young families and
  employees

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Estes Housing more expensive than Front Range
Includes Pinewood to Allenspark, Drake and Glen
Haven as well as the Estes Valley.
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Estes Market - House vs. Condo Average Selling
Price Trend
Includes Pinewood to Allenspark, Drake and Glen
Haven as well as the Estes Valley.
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Estes Park less expensive than many Mountain
Resorts
(000)
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Energy
A threat and an opportunity
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The world has never faced a problem like this
DOE Report
Hubberts Peak
Source Geologist Dr. Colin Campbell
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one thing is clear the era of easy oil is
overChevron
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Higher costs and disruption of energy supplies
ahead

• Global competition for petroleum.
• Disruptions likely due to weather, political
  unrest, terrorism and wars over oil source
  control.
• Oil and natural gas prices exhibit chaotic
  swings.
• Impact on economy and lifestyles.
• Estes Park tax base at risk.

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Energy impact on Estes Park???

• Less discretionary income hurts tourist
• Estes attractiveness increases
• Proximity to DIA and Front Range
• More accessible and lower cost than ski towns and
  remote National Parks.
• Broad range of activities and amenities
• Healthy lifestyle
• Car-less vacation potential

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The Bottom Line Issues

• Estes economy at risk
• Tourist based
• Dependant on sales tax revenues and disposable
  Income
• Growing population of retirees and second
  homeowners who dont relate to community needs or
  ballot initiatives. Here to have fun.
• Retail struggling for survival. Resist any tax
  increases.
• Community divided on support for schools.
• Housing increasingly expensive for young families
• Increasing energy costs and economic downturn.
• Colorado Tax Law

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The Bottom Line Opportunities

• Tourism advantage vs. other mountain communities
• Close to DIA and Front Range
• Front range population growth.
• Shuttles. Car-less vacation
• Summer/family oriented attractions.
• Low cost vacation.
• National Park a partner, not a competitor.
• Retirees offer potential to strengthen retail
  economy.

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Our Vision
To ensure the economic sustainability of the
Estes valley
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Our Vision

• Estes Park will continue to be a premier mountain
  resort community that cares about continuous
  improvement in our quality of life, building on
  our relationship with the National Park, honoring
  our historic influences and scenic corridors,
  strengthening our economic vitality, promoting
  active lifestyles, enhancing recreational and
  cultural opportunities, supporting families, and
  protecting the natural environment in and around
  the Estes community.

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Our Vision

• To ensure the economic sustainability of our
  tourism based community, the vision includes the
  following
• Community Character
• Economic Sustainability
• Natural Environment
• Recreational Resources
• Housing
• Transportation and Parking
• Cultural Resources

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The Bottom Line

• Major challenges ahead
• Need to build on strengths
• Need to address issues and opportunities
• Need to work together as a community.

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Need to build on strengths

• National Park
• Natural surroundings
• Services and amenities
• Growing retirement community
• Our people

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Need to improve the visitor and resident
experience

• Transportation parking
• Indoor/outdoor recreation
• Cultural options
• Sense of community
• Affordability

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Community Character
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Economic Sustainability
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Natural Environment
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Recreational Resources
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Housing
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Transportation and Parking
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Cultural Resources
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Whats Next???

• Use as blueprint for developing strategies and
  actionable items.
• Match with Town Goals. Assign responsibility.
• 2017 Advisory Team will assist Town Board and
  staff in planning and implementation.
• Engage the entire Estes Valley.

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It takes all of us!!! to achieve a sustainable
economy!