Energy and Political Stability

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Energy and Political Stability

• Gary J. Jones

Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by
Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin
Company,for the United States Department of
Energys National Nuclear Security
Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.
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Premise
1. Systemic poverty and the lack of a middle
class contributes to political instability
and is a breeding ground for terrorism
2. Middle class creation requires broad,
proactive, culturally acceptable programs
3. Energy is a key enabling technology
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The Origins of this Work
Sandia Strategies of the War on Terrorism Teams
looking at Offense, Defense, and Root Cause post
9/11
Root Cause Team
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Two of the Root Causes

• Systemic Long-term Poverty
• Sustained by Native Colonialism following
  independence
• Resulting in hopelessness, anger, and envy
• Small Middle Class
• Retarding democratic processes, full
  participation

Poverty is not just income-related it also means
lower life expectancy, illiteracy, poor education
opportunities, lack of potable water access,
childhood malnutritionand hopelessness.
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Natural Resources Are Not the Answer
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Economic Development Stability
Economic growth produces a middle class with
property rights, a complex civil society and ever
higher levels of education to maintain economic
competitiveness. All these factors together
create fertile ground in which demands for
democratic political participation take shape,
which eventually get institutionalized in
democratic government. Francis Fukuyama

• 75 of the Worlds Richest 25 Countries are
  Democracies
• 5 of the Worlds Poorest 80 Countries are
  Democracies

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Requirements for Economic Development

• Infrastructure
• Basic health care, education/literacy,
  communication

• Economic
• Capital, credit, free market, property protection

• Legal
• Rule of Law, equity/equality

• Cultural
• Celebrate success, value knowledge

• Personal Freedom
• Empowerment, fair reward

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The Basic Requirement

• Infrastructure
• Basic health care, education/literacy,
  communication

Energy is the Enabler Making development needs
accessible
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Energy for Economicand Social Development
Goal Enhanced education, health care, and
economic development on the village level.

• Point of Use Technologies for rural development
• Local, clean energy supply
• Efficient, low-cost telecommunications
  technologies
• Potable water delivery and waste-water treatment
• Enhanced distance learning technologies
• Village-applicable telemedicine technologies
• Local productive use equipment

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Technologies for Economic Development
Goal Development of a technology-basedmanufactur
ing sector leading to a viable middle-class

• Create technology hubs focusing on key regional
  issues
• Clean Energy supply
• Water technologies
• Advanced agriculture
• Infrastructure and border security
• Biotechnical and medical applications
• Point of Use technologies
• Communications

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Breaking the Poverty Cycle

• It is not just a question of more foreign aid
• Effective programs
• Are multi-national/NGO-based programs
• Enable people to move forward on their own
• Empower them to find solutions as equals.

GOALProvide the means for rural and urban
communities in the developing world to meet the
basic needs of the current generation within
their own socio-political framework and resource
base, in a manner that enhances their
quality-of-life, respects cultural traditions,
and is internally sustainable through community
wealth creation.
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Six Steps to Effective Programs
In-country team identification and stakeholder
involvement
Local and distance education capabilities and
content
Energy infrastructure/clean energy systems
Micro-enterprise development utilizing these
systems
Business of supplying/maintaining clean energy
systems
Training for supplemental community health care
personnel
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Are the Requirements Met?

• Infrastructure
• Basic health care, education/literacy,
  communication

• Economic
• Capital, credit, free market, property protection

• Legal
• Rule of Law, equity/equality

• Cultural
• Celebrate success, value knowledge

• Personal Freedom
• Empowerment, fair reward

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What can go wrong!
Cf. Terrorism and Development, K. Cragin and P.
Chalk, RAND, 2003

• If development efforts are not funded relative
  to size and needs of targeted regions they may
  backfire.

• Community involvement in needs identification,
  and follow through, are critical, independent
  of amount of money spent.

• To address unrest, development must provide
  economic alternatives to potential terrorist
  recruits, and create a middle class with a
  vested interest in peace.

• Funding programs must not be done in isolation.
  The other requirements for development must
  be addressed, and risks assessed.

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END
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Five of the Root Causes of Terrorism

• Mutual Lack of Cultural Acceptance
  Understanding
• Little true dialogue
• Cultural versus Economic World View (Jihad vs.
  McWorld)

• U.S. oil-dominated foreign policy
• U. S. Troops in Saudi Arabia
• Foreign Policy in the Middle East (Kuwait)

• Opportunistic Foreign Policy (Cold War Legacy)
• Situational support for oppressive, unstable
  regimes
• Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, etc

• Colonial Legacy
• Absence of industrial infrastructure
• Small middle class
• Arbitrary borders leading to tribal conflict

• Perceived US Israeli-Palestinian Policy Imbalance
• Lack of economic empowerment of Palestinians
• Resultant infrastructure, resource problems

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the huge oil windfall has been a monumental
misfortune. It has intoxicated rulers, henchmen,
and purveyors, who have slept on piles of money,
wasted it on largely worthless projects, and
managed to exceed their figuratively (but not
literally) limitless resources. Even Saudi
Arabia cannot balance its books. In the process
these spoilers have infuriated the Muslim poor,
who in turn have sought an outlet for rage and
outrage in fundamentalist doctrine.David
Landes, The Wealth and Poverty of Nations