2nd AIACC Asia and the Pacific Regional Workshop A Risk-Based Approach to Adaptation (ADB Technical Assistance to the Pacific) Presented by: Edy Brotoisworo Asian Development Bank

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2nd AIACC Asia and the Pacific Regional Workshop
A Risk-Based Approach to Adaptation (ADB
Technical Assistance to the Pacific) Presented
byEdy BrotoisworoAsian Development Bank
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• Implementing
• adaptation to
• climate variability
• and change
• in the Pacific

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Climate Change Adaptation Program
for the Pacific (CLIMAP) IMPLEMENTATION
Asian Development BankIN COOPERATION
WITH Government of FSM Government of the
Cook Islands SOURCE OF FUNDING Canadian
Government under the Canadian Cooperation Fund
for Climate Change GHG abatement, carbon
sequestration and adaptation CONSULTANT
Maunsell Ltd, in association with
International Global Change Institute (IGCI)
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• Objectives mainstreaming climate adaptation
  through integrated risk reduction (CCIRR) into
  development planning in selected PDMCs and ADB
  operations
• Activities a. ADB Operations
• b. Pilot activities (Cook Islands FSM)

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Responding to Climate Variability Change
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• Is the climate changing?

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How much warmer will it be?
Increase in mean temperature by 2100
3oF
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By how much will sea level rise?
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?Past?
? Future
?
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Sea Level Rarotonga (1977 2002)
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How much wetter will it be?
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Daily Rainfall Rarotonga (1929 2003)
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(No Transcript)
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Frequency and duration of low rainfall - Pohnpei
Last 50 years
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Frequency and duration of low rainfall - Pohnpei
Last 50 years
Next 50 years
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Antecedent Rainfall for Gastro Enteritis
Outbreaks Pohnpei 1998-2003
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Consequences for Human Health
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KEY PREMISE
Adaptation to climate change is, in large part, a
continuous process that involves the adjustment
of society to changing risks arising from
climatic extremes
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FSM Case Studies
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CCAIRR Promotes Integration .Mainstreaming
Climate Proofing is shortand for reducing, to
acceptable levels, the risks due to climate
variability and change, including extreme events
Reflecting Climate Risks in National Development
Planning Demonstrated by Climate Proofing
National Strategic Development Plans
Immediate, Project Level
Long Term, National Level
Reflecting Climate Risks in Landuse Planning,
Regulations and Permitting Demonstrated
by Climate Proofing such instruments as the
Building Code, EIA Regulations and Procedures,
And Health Regulations
Reflecting Climate Risks in Infrastructure
Design and Local Level Decision
Making Demonstrated by Climate Proofing
infrastructure and other Development projects
Cimate Proofed Development
Enabling Environment
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Climate Proofing FSMs National Strategic
Development Plan

• Infrastructure designed, located, built and
  maintained to avoid unacceptable risks to
  infrastructure associated with natural hazards,
  including weather and climate extremes,
  variability and change.
• Conduct risk assessments at state level and
  develop national- and state-level guidelines to
  ensure risks to infrastructure development
  projects are identified and addressed in a cost
  effective manner at the design stage.

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How will Climate Change Reduce Project
Sustainability?
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Roading Project Kosrae (FSM)

• Design Life 50 yr
• Design Rainfall Hourly rainfall with return
  period of 25 yr
• Used 177 mm
• 2000 190 mm
• 2050 254 mm

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Climate Change will Increase Road Maintenance
Costs
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How can Project Sustainability be Maintained
Despite Climate Change?
Climate Proofing is shortand for reducing, to
acceptable levels, the risks due to climate
variability and change, including extreme events
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Construction CostsRS4 (6.6 km section to be
built)

• Costs (2004 US)
• Current Design
• Road Surface 1,254,414
• Drainage Works 640,233
• Total 1,894,647
• Climate Proofed Design
• Road Surface 1,254,414
• Drainage Works 1,151,397
• Total 2,405,811

Incremental Cost 511,164
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Cost-Benefit AnalysisRS4 Section Yet To Be Built

• Net Present Values
• Current Design
• No climate change 4,475,200
• With climate change 7,803,064
• Climate Proofed Design
• With climate change 4,986,364
• Internal Rate of Return 11

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Incremental Costof Climate Proofing the Road

• Costs (2004 US)
• To be built section (6.6 km)
• US 77,449 per km
• Built section (3.2 km)
• US 242,558 per km

Higher costs if climate proofing is retroactive
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Will Addressing Climate Change Increase project
costs? Reduce project viability?
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Accumulated Costs RS4 (to be built)
Current Design
Climate Proofed
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Climate Change will ReduceCommunity
Sustainability
Sokehs Federated States of Micronesia
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Costs and Benefits of ReducingFlooding in
Sapwohn Village
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What are the Implications for Government and ADB
Operations?
Climate Proofing the Strategic Development Plan
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The Adaptation Mainstreaming Guidelines
Mainstreaming Principles
Enhancing the Enabling Environment
Harmonizing with Sustainable Devopment
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Mainstreaming ADB Level
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Some Key Points.

• Despite international efforts to reduce
  greeenhouse gas emissions, the need to adapt to
  climate change is inevitable
• Climate change will manifest largely as changes
  in the frequency and consequences of extreme
  events, rather than as long-term trends in
  average conditions
• Adaptation should be based on effective and
  efficient risk reduction strategies
• Adaptation costs (including incremental costs)
  and benefits can be quantified. Typically
  adaptation is a cost effective intervention,
  especially when implemented at the design stage
  of a project. Retrospective adaptation incurs far
  greater costs

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Some Key Points.

• Requires integration (mainstreaming) of
  adaptation, across time scales and three levels
• National policy National Strategic Development
  Plan
• Sector policy Landuse planning, regulation
  enforcement
• Project planning and implementation

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