Climate Change Office Powerpoint Template

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Adaption Tools for a Developed Agricultural
Economy Judy Lawrence Director, New Zealand
Climate Change Office Ministry for the
Environment
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• Agriculture in New Zealand

• Pastoral agriculture is a major contributor to
  GDP (10 GDP including food processing and
  manufacture)
• 44 of NZs land area is in grazing pastoral
  agriculture
• Highly export-dependent country (64 of total NZ
  exports)
• Climate spans subtropical to cool temperate, and
  high rainfall to semi-arid

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• Adaptation Overview of Options

• Enhancing beneficial effects of climate change
• Extension of growing season
• Wider range of products / market timing
• Managing gradual change
• Adaptive breeding of cultivars
• On-going disease / biosecurity management
• Diversification sustainable land-use strategies
• Managing extreme events
• Droughts water harvesting/storage forecasting
• Floods land-use planning warning systems

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Assessment Tools

• Top-down assessments
• Future climate patterns down-scaling of GCMs
• Development of national impact assesment tools
  (CLIMPACTS)
• Climate extremes - drought and flood risk and
  mitigation - Preliminary economic assessments
• Free Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment (FACE)
  Research
• Regulatory approaches local government planning
  and strategies
• Bottom-up assessments
• Specific topic and regional studies
• Cost of specific events floods and droughts
• Bottom-up studies at local scale involving farmers

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• GCM Downscaling
• Impacts on NZ Agriculture

• New Zealand expected to warm less rapidly than
  global average due to oceanic influence
• Expected shift in rainfall patterns towards drier
  conditions in east, wetter in west
• Increased risk of extremes flooding (most
  places) and drought risk (eastern regions)
• Biological effects of extension of growing
  season, change in species composition / disease /
  biosecurity, carbon fertilisation
• Reductions in cold hardening in some crops

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CLIMPACTS - Impacts Assessment Tool
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• Impacts assessment example kiwifruit

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• Climate Extremes Drought Risk Assessment

• Drought is an important cause of variation in
  NZs GDP. Economic studies show impacts.
• Work programmes aim to quantify likely changes in
  drought risk, severity and return frequency
• Adapting now has important co-benefits for future
  climate
• Coupled with Sustainable Development Plan of
  Action on Water quality, quanity

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Free Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment (FACE)Research
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FACE Research

• Assessment now of impacts of future elevated
  carbon dioxide levels on biological systems
• IGBP Global FACE Network covers major ecosystems
• Provides insights into national and global
  adaptation strategies

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Regional Climate AssessmentsFarmers using
information to manage for current climate
variability

• Examples
• GrowOTAGO climate / soil mapping project
• Kaipara / Far North climate / soil / crop project
• Southern Climate Pasture Outlook

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• Enabling Individual Farmers

• Top-down impacts/vulnerability assessments have
  received little attention from farmers
• Need to engage farmers at local scale with a
  view from the ground perspective
• Series of farmer interviews and workshops
  focusing on sustainability and positive options
  for managing risks covering
• Diversification
• Water issues
• Good information at right level / timing

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• Adaptation Regulatory Responses

• Are part of Sustainable Development strategies
• Regulatory framework for adaptation
• Regional Councils develop regional policies and
  manage natural resources/hazards
• Resource Management Act requires particular
  regard to the effects of climate change
• Detailed guidance on how to consider effects has
  been developed for local government
• Local Government Act - framework for Sustainable
  Development strategies and community-based
  long-term plans

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• Conclusions

• Adaptation is very important for agricultural
  based economies whether developed or developing
• Positive and negative impacts expected in the
  short-term
• Some impacts well quantified, some are only
  qualitatively known or poorly understood
• Biggest negative impacts in medium term likely to
  arise from climate extremes (eg drought, floods,
  biosecurity. water management, biodiversity)
• Adaptive capacity in agriculture is generally
  high, but needs to be integrated into business
  decisions
• Sharing of tools will enhance progress for all
  countries