Cook County, Illinois: July 95

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Heat and Health MethodologicalConsiderations
for Warning SystemDevelopment
Washington, D.C.May 2005
Dr. Laurence S. KalksteinSynoptic Climatology
Laboratory Center for Climatic ResearchUniversit
y of Delaware
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How Are These Systems Unique?

• A custom-made system is developed for each urban
  area, based on specific meteorology for each
  locale, as well as urban structure and
  demographics
• These systems are based on actual weather-health
  relationships, as determined by daily variations
  in human mortality
  
• These systems are based on much more than just
  temperature and humidity

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Systems We are Presently Operating

• USA
• Chicago, IL
• Dallas/Ft. Worth, TX
• Dayton/Cincinnati, OH
• Jackson/Meridian, MS
• Lake Charles/Alexandria, LA
• Little Rock/Pine Bluff, AR
• Memphis, TN/Tupelo, MS
• New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
• Philadelphia, PA
• Phoenix, AZ
• Portland, OR
• Seattle, WA
• St. Louis, MO
• Shreveport/Monroe, LA
• Washington, D.C.
• Yuma, AZ

• International
• Bologna, Italy
• Florence, Italy
• Milan, Italy
• Naples, Italy
• Palermo, Italy
• Rome, Italy
• Shanghai, China
• Turin, Italy
• Toronto, Canada

New five-day forecast systems based on point
forecast matrices
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Maximum Temperature vs. Daily Mortality
New York and Jacksonville, Florida
New York Jacksonville
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Steps in System Development

• Step 1 Determine air masses daily over a city
  using newly-developed Spatial Synoptic
  Classification (SSC)
  
• Step 2 Are any of these air masses offensive?
• Characteristics
• Statistically significant higher
  mortality
  
• Greater within air mass standard
  deviation in mortality
  
• Step 3 What aspects of the offensive air mass
  make it most detrimental to human health?

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SSC Air Mass Types

• DP Dry Polar (cP)
• DM Dry Moderate (Pacific)
• DT Dry Tropical (cT)
• MP Moist Polar (mP)
• MM Moist Moderate (Overrunning)
• MT Moist Tropical (mT)
• MT Moist Tropical Plus
• TR Transition between air masses
• ----------------

Sheridan, S.C., 2002 The redevelopment of a
weather-type classification scheme for North
America. Int. J. Climatology, 22, 51-68. K
alkstein, L.S., C.D. Barthel, J.S. Greene and
M.C. Nichols, 1996. A New Spatial Synoptic
Classification Application to Air Mass Ana
lysis. Int. J. Climatology, 16, 983-1004.
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Characteristics of WashingtonAir Mass Types
Mean air mass frequency from 1 June through 31
August
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Removing Non-Climatological Noise from the
Mortality Data
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Phoenixs Rising Mortality
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Mean Deaths in Rome by Daystandardization is
important
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Mean Mortality Increases Within Offensive Air
Mass Types
Location (Freq) DT
MT
a MT does not occur in Seattle or Portland the
moist air mass that is oppressive is MT.
DT air mass for Phoenix
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Development of Forecast Algorithms
Within-Air Mass Category
Mortality Variations
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ROME
MT mortality decreases through summer
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ROME
DT mortality vs. morning temperature
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Steps That can be Taken When Alerts or Emergenci
es are Called
1. NWS alerts appropriate city agency
(e.g., Department of Health, Office of Aging,
etc.) 2. City develops (or already has in place
) intervention plans 3. Effectiveness of system
can be monitored in three manners,
and improvements are implemented if there are
shortcomings --forecasting effectiveness (fa
lse positives or negatives) --accuracy in estima
ting health impacts of offensive weather
--noting if we are saving lives.