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One Billion and Counting

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Case Study. After completing this chapter, you will be able to: ... for several generations after women begin averaging only two children each. ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: One Billion and Counting


1
One Billion and Counting
  • The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth

2
Why study population?
  • To understand
  • the effects of population growth on.
  • people
  • culture
  • systems
  • the world.
  • What else?

3
Earths Population History
6 billion reached circa 1999 (12 years later)
5 billion reached circa 1987 (13 years later)
4 billion reached circa 1974 (15 years later)
3 billion reached circa 1929 (29 years later)
2 billion reached 1930 (100 years later)
1 billion reached circa 1830
(p. 112)
4
World Population Trend
Figure 5.1 (p. 113)
5
World Population Trend
Figure 5.4 (p. 116)
6
Dynamics of Population
(pp. 112-113)
7
Measures of Population Change
crude birth rate of births per 1,000 population
-
crude death rate of deaths per 1,000 population

crude rate of natural increase growth per 1,000
population
Figure 5.2 (p. 114)
8
Demographic Transition Model
Figure 5.3 (p. 115)
9
Contrasting Demographic Transitions
Figure 5.5 (p. 118)
10
Key Population Indicators for Selected Countries
Table 5.1 (p. 117)
11
Population Pyramids
Rapid Growth Countries
Figure 5.6 (p. 119)
12
Moderate (and Slowing) Growth Countries
Figure 5.6 (p. 119)
13
Slow Growth Countries
Figure 5.6 (p. 119)
14
Population Decline Countries
Figure 5.6 (p. 119)
15
The Future of a Rapid Growth Country Afghanistan
http//www.census.gov/
16
The Future of a Population Decline Country Italy
http//www.census.gov/
17
Arizona 1990 Population 3.7 million Arizona
1990 American Indian Population 205,000
Breakdown by Ethnic Population
http//www.census.gov/
18
Make Your Own Population Pyramid on the Web
Canada http//www.statcan.ca/english/kits/animat/
pyca.htm
Western United States http//www.centerwest.org/f
utures/archive/people/
International http//www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbpy
r.html
19
Measures of Fertility
Age-Specific Birth Rate
Replacement Fertility
Total Fertility Rate
Zero Population Growth (ZPG)
20
Demographic Momentum
Occurs in an age structure with a large base
and small top. Very few elderly at the top
of pyramid are available to die Many children
who will soon be in peak reproductive ages.
Compare the large number of children being born
to the small number of elderly dying.
21
Name That Key Term
22
Number of deaths of children under 1 year of age
per 1,000 live births in a year.
Infant Mortality Rate
Annual number of live births per 1,000 population.
Crude Birth Rate (CBR)
Annual number of deaths per 1,000 population.
Crude Death Rate (CDR)
Crude Rate of Natural Increase
The difference between the crude birth rate and
the crude death rate.
Cohort
All individuals in a certain age range.
The number of births to women in a certain age
cohort divided by the number of women in that
cohort.
Age-Specific Birth Rate
23
The average number of children a woman would have
during her reproductive years assuming the
current fertility rates of women across all ages.
Total Fertility Rate
The fertility rate at which each female in a
population produces on average one female baby
who survives to the time when she herself can
reproduce.
Replacement Fertility
A state in which the crude birth rate minus the
crude death rate equals zero. The number of
deaths exactly offsets the number of births.
Zero Population Growth (ZPG)
A state in which forces of change are in balance.
Equilibrium
24
A model of population change from an equilibrium
with high birth and death rates through a
high-growth transition period in which death
rates decline sooner than birth rates, to a new
equilibrium with low birth and death rates.
Demographic Transition Model
A graph showing the number of males and females
in discrete age cohorts (age categories).
Population Pyramid
Demographic Momentum or Hidden Momentum
Continued population growth long after
replacement-level fertility rates have been
reached.
Scattered settlements of a particular national
group living abroad.
Diaspora
25
One Billion and Counting The Hidden Momentum of
Population Growth in India
Case Study
Chapter 5
26
After completing this chapter, you will be able
to Relate the shape of population pyramids
to a countrys birth, death, and growth
rates. Differentiate population pyramids of
countries with rapid, slow, and negative
population growth. Understand the hidden
momentum built into current population
pyramids. Recognize the hypothetical nature
of population projections.
27
Background on India
Figure 5.8a 5.8b (p. 123)
28
India's population, 1901 to 2000
Figure 5.7 (p. 122)
29
Total fertility rate in India, 1971 to 2000
Figure 5.9 (p. 124)
30
Figures 5.10 5.12 (p. 125 126)
31
Infertility clinics like this one in New Delhi
reflect India's shift away from coerced birth
control to individual choices. While providing
the opportunity for birth control to those who
want it, some individuals such as those served by
this clinic may be more concerned with the
opposite problem -- not being able to have any
children.
32
Indian emigrants diaspora around the
world Commonwealth country laborers Remittances
and development Destinations today U.S., Great
Britain, Canada, Australia Implications of
population growth in India Supplies of
freshwater are stretched to the limit Soil
exhaustion and erosion Cultivating low-lying,
hurricane-prone islands Overgrazing Protein
consumption is 20 below nutritional
needs Unable to provide social services and
education Makeshift housing in squatter
settlements Nonetheless, remarkable
economic growth, large middle class, and
leadership in the information economy
33
Activity 1 Matching Demographic Descriptions
and Population Pyramids
Online Activity
34
Activity 2 Demographic Momentum
Online Activity
35
Activity 3 Interpreting Population Change
Using the understanding you have gained by
projecting Indias population pyramids into this
hypothetical future, give a carefully worded
explanation of how it is possible for a
population to continue growing for several
generations after women begin averaging only two
children each. It may be particularly helpful to
review your answers for Scenario 2 in Activity 2.
36
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