Title: One Billion and Counting
1One Billion and Counting
- The Hidden Momentum of Population Growth
2Why study population?
- To understand
- the effects of population growth on.
- people
- culture
- systems
- the world.
- What else?
3Earths Population History
6 billion reached circa 1999 (12 years later)
5 billion reached circa 1987 (13 years later)
4 billion reached circa 1974 (15 years later)
3 billion reached circa 1929 (29 years later)
2 billion reached 1930 (100 years later)
1 billion reached circa 1830
(p. 112)
4World Population Trend
Figure 5.1 (p. 113)
5World Population Trend
Figure 5.4 (p. 116)
6Dynamics of Population
(pp. 112-113)
7Measures of Population Change
crude birth rate of births per 1,000 population
-
crude death rate of deaths per 1,000 population
crude rate of natural increase growth per 1,000
population
Figure 5.2 (p. 114)
8Demographic Transition Model
Figure 5.3 (p. 115)
9Contrasting Demographic Transitions
Figure 5.5 (p. 118)
10Key Population Indicators for Selected Countries
Table 5.1 (p. 117)
11Population Pyramids
Rapid Growth Countries
Figure 5.6 (p. 119)
12Moderate (and Slowing) Growth Countries
Figure 5.6 (p. 119)
13Slow Growth Countries
Figure 5.6 (p. 119)
14Population Decline Countries
Figure 5.6 (p. 119)
15The Future of a Rapid Growth Country Afghanistan
http//www.census.gov/
16The Future of a Population Decline Country Italy
http//www.census.gov/
17Arizona 1990 Population 3.7 million Arizona
1990 American Indian Population 205,000
Breakdown by Ethnic Population
http//www.census.gov/
18Make Your Own Population Pyramid on the Web
Canada http//www.statcan.ca/english/kits/animat/
pyca.htm
Western United States http//www.centerwest.org/f
utures/archive/people/
International http//www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbpy
r.html
19Measures of Fertility
Age-Specific Birth Rate
Replacement Fertility
Total Fertility Rate
Zero Population Growth (ZPG)
20Demographic Momentum
Occurs in an age structure with a large base
and small top. Very few elderly at the top
of pyramid are available to die Many children
who will soon be in peak reproductive ages.
Compare the large number of children being born
to the small number of elderly dying.
21Name That Key Term
22Number of deaths of children under 1 year of age
per 1,000 live births in a year.
Infant Mortality Rate
Annual number of live births per 1,000 population.
Crude Birth Rate (CBR)
Annual number of deaths per 1,000 population.
Crude Death Rate (CDR)
Crude Rate of Natural Increase
The difference between the crude birth rate and
the crude death rate.
Cohort
All individuals in a certain age range.
The number of births to women in a certain age
cohort divided by the number of women in that
cohort.
Age-Specific Birth Rate
23The average number of children a woman would have
during her reproductive years assuming the
current fertility rates of women across all ages.
Total Fertility Rate
The fertility rate at which each female in a
population produces on average one female baby
who survives to the time when she herself can
reproduce.
Replacement Fertility
A state in which the crude birth rate minus the
crude death rate equals zero. The number of
deaths exactly offsets the number of births.
Zero Population Growth (ZPG)
A state in which forces of change are in balance.
Equilibrium
24A model of population change from an equilibrium
with high birth and death rates through a
high-growth transition period in which death
rates decline sooner than birth rates, to a new
equilibrium with low birth and death rates.
Demographic Transition Model
A graph showing the number of males and females
in discrete age cohorts (age categories).
Population Pyramid
Demographic Momentum or Hidden Momentum
Continued population growth long after
replacement-level fertility rates have been
reached.
Scattered settlements of a particular national
group living abroad.
Diaspora
25One Billion and Counting The Hidden Momentum of
Population Growth in India
Case Study
Chapter 5
26After completing this chapter, you will be able
to Relate the shape of population pyramids
to a countrys birth, death, and growth
rates. Differentiate population pyramids of
countries with rapid, slow, and negative
population growth. Understand the hidden
momentum built into current population
pyramids. Recognize the hypothetical nature
of population projections.
27Background on India
Figure 5.8a 5.8b (p. 123)
28India's population, 1901 to 2000
Figure 5.7 (p. 122)
29Total fertility rate in India, 1971 to 2000
Figure 5.9 (p. 124)
30Figures 5.10 5.12 (p. 125 126)
31Infertility clinics like this one in New Delhi
reflect India's shift away from coerced birth
control to individual choices. While providing
the opportunity for birth control to those who
want it, some individuals such as those served by
this clinic may be more concerned with the
opposite problem -- not being able to have any
children.
32Indian emigrants diaspora around the
world Commonwealth country laborers Remittances
and development Destinations today U.S., Great
Britain, Canada, Australia Implications of
population growth in India Supplies of
freshwater are stretched to the limit Soil
exhaustion and erosion Cultivating low-lying,
hurricane-prone islands Overgrazing Protein
consumption is 20 below nutritional
needs Unable to provide social services and
education Makeshift housing in squatter
settlements Nonetheless, remarkable
economic growth, large middle class, and
leadership in the information economy
33Activity 1 Matching Demographic Descriptions
and Population Pyramids
Online Activity
34Activity 2 Demographic Momentum
Online Activity
35Activity 3 Interpreting Population Change
Using the understanding you have gained by
projecting Indias population pyramids into this
hypothetical future, give a carefully worded
explanation of how it is possible for a
population to continue growing for several
generations after women begin averaging only two
children each. It may be particularly helpful to
review your answers for Scenario 2 in Activity 2.
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