Land Use, Transport and Climate Change

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Land Use, Transport and Climate Change

• Fiona Calvert, Director Sustainable and Active
  Transport Policy

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State and Territory Transport Emissions 2006

• Almost 20 of transports emissions originate in
  Victoria
• Slightly higher per capita than other States

Source Australian Greenhouse Office
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Victorian Emissions by End-Use
Source GWA 2008
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Growth in Victorian emissions 2000-2007
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Impacts of Increased Fuel Prices

• Short of a new cheap fuel source
• costs of car travel will increase
• costs of freight movement will increase
• Results
• less disposable income
• increased costs of consumer goods
• poorer economic performance
• Some households will be significantly negatively
  impacted

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Possible secondary impacts of increased fuel
costs - fuel

• Increased effort in RD on alternative fuels
• Variety of fuels likely to emerge
• Linked to a range of technologies
• Different fuels and technologies will suit
  different circumstances

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Possible secondary impacts alternative modes

• Increase demand for public transport
• analysis suggests there would be (and has been)
  some shift to public transport
• Likely to be an increase in demand for
  walking/cycling
• More short trips
• Cheaper/readily available
• Infrastructure implications

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Possible secondary impacts - changes in road
transport

• Likely to be an increase in demand for more
  fuel-efficient vehicles
• Implies transaction costs
• more rapid vehicle replacement
• shift in production pattern for vehicle
  manufacturers
• May reduce demand for road transport
• Reduce non-discretionary travel, ie non-work
  trips
• Increase car pooling

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Vulnerabilities to Transport Cost Increases -
metro
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Vulnerabilities to Transport Cost Increases -
regional
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Possible later impacts of increased fuel prices
land use and planning

• Property values
• Inner areas/where there are alternatives likely
  to increase in value further
• May increase gap between inner and outer suburbs
• Design for reduced motorised mobility
• Higher population densities
• Local availability of services
• Walking/cycling/PT accessibility/connectivity
• Spatial shift in employment opportunities
• Shift in business locations closer to pools of
  employees
• Employees shift closer to work

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Energy use by mode 2006
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Emissions by household per 1000 trips
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Energy per trip v distance from Melbourne CBD
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Energy use per trip v population and employment
density
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Change in energy and greenhouse gas emissions for
urban form scenarios 2031
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Journey to Work Proportion of employed LGA
residents working in central Melbourne
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Number of Single Occupant Trips to Work by Car
Kingston-North SLA

• Locations with high levels of driver-only trips,
  limited public transport
• Candidates for car pooling

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Victorian Transport Plan

• Three part approach to making transport more
  sustainable
• Reducing the need to travel without impacting
  peoples access to opportunities and industrys
  need to move goods
• Using less polluting forms of transport more
  often
• Ensuring that all forms of transport are as
  environmentally friendly as possible

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Lower emissions and reduced vulnerability

• Transformative action necessary to reduce
  emissions
• Many actions will also help those who are most
  vulnerable to fuel price increases
• Government role in facilitating and supporting
  transformation