Targeting The Youth Vote: Lessons from 06

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Targeting The Youth Vote Lessons from 06

• March 9, 2007

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A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE IOP SURVEY

• Created in 2000 as partnership between the
  Institute of Politics, Harvard undergrads, and
  professional pollster
• Focus was understanding disconnect on campuses
  between politics and community service
• Expanded after 9/11 to two surveys per year
• Expanded again in 2006
• 1,200 online interviews of 18 to 24 year old
  college students
• 1,200 online interviews of 18 to 24 year olds,
  not in college

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IOP SURVEY HIGHLIGHTS

• Predicted the spike in turnout in both the 2004
  and the 2006 elections
• Noted dramatic shifts in attitudes toward the
  political system pre- and post-9/11
• Uncovered the growing importance of religion in
  lives of college students and importance of
  Religious Centrists in national elections
• Marked generational shift in foreign policy
  attitudes majority believing U.N. and not U.S.
  ought to take lead in solving international
  crises and conflicts

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IOP SURVEY HIGHLIGHTS

• In 2005, the IOP survey marked the important
  generational shift in foreign policy attitudes
  between Young Voters and the general voting
  public.

Which of the following statements comes closer to
your point of view? The United States should
take the lead in solving international crises and
conflicts. OR, The United States should let other
countries and the United Nations take the lead in
solving international crises and conflicts.
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YOUTH VOTE IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
Source U.S. Census Current Population Surveys
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YOUTH VOTE IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONSIn 04,
there were more under-30 voters than over-65
voters
Source U.S. Census Current Population Surveys
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YOUTH VOTE 2000-2004
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
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IOP ELECTION 06 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

• 30-60 minute interviews conducted by professional
  researcher
• Dynamic interviewing guide included questions in
  six areas for youth

Outreach candidate surrogate appearances at
young voter events
Programs, Events Fund- raising
Message paid media policy papers
Use of Technology web, SMS, Social networking
Staff / Interns of interns, of staff under 30
Demo- graphic knowledge
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OVERVIEW OF ELECTION 06 INTERVIEWS

• 59 interviews of top campaigns

Interviews by party
Interviews by office
17 races had both sides interviewed
Outcomes
Incumbency
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MOST CAMPAIGNS DID NOT PRIORITIZE YOUNG VOTERS
Number of campaigns that listed demographic
group as very important (out of 59)

• 2/3 of campaign managers did not know what of
  electorate was youth vote

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INNOVATIVE STRATEGIES1. Text for Success
Description
Quote
Were asking people to sign up, give us
their cell numbers, and join the campaign
by texting the word job since thats a key
issue, and they can do everything from donating
via their phones up to 9.99, or signing up for
alerts of candidateradio appearancesto
SMSing their friends in the Get Out the
Vote effort. Interview quote from campaign
manager
Using text messaging as a tool to
communicate message, raise funds,
recruit volunteers
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INNOVATIVE STRATEGIES 2. Get HipHop
Description

• Some candidates spoke
• at hip hop conferences/
• summits
• Others designed hip hop
• style palm cards to
• attract youth

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INNOVATIVE STRATEGIES 3. Go Back to School
Quote
Description
College Tour

• We did a college campus tour right before and
  during the early vote over four or five days.
  There was a huge commitment of our candidate. And
  we had a lot of disagreement and discussion about
  should we really devote that much time? And all
  of them were good or great, all of them. The
  response we got was just tremendous.
• Interview quote from campaign manager

Tour of campuses to build enthusiasm for both
volunteers and for candidate
Location- based volunteer recruitment
Quote
Description
Our campaign headquarters is right next to a
universityso students can walk in about 10
minutes - Interview quote from campaign manager
Locating campaign office near area of high
student / youth density
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INNOVATIVE STRATEGIES 4. A video is worth 1,000
words
Description

• Upload campaign ads for instant
• and free distribution
• Film speeches and post
• immediately to website / YouTube
• Catch opponents mistakes
• Ask supporters to film and post
• own ads

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INNOVATIVE STRATEGIES 5. Network, Network,
Network
Description
MySpace

• Some candidates had as
• many as 10,000 friends on
• facebook
• Target potential voters by
• their listed political
• leanings
• Run college outreach
• through facebook.com
• Recruit volunteers/interns

Facebook
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EMERGING TREND OPEN-SOURCE CAMPAIGNING
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2006 WAS NOT THE YEAR OF OPEN-SOURCE 2008 WILL
BE
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OUTREACH AND STAFF WERE BEST PREDICTORS OF
VICTORY
Outreach
Staff
Average number of campaign interns
Average hours per month candidate or surrogate
spends with young voters
Top 20
Bottom 80
Top 20
Average portion of young staff
Bottom 80
Top 20
Bottom 80
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DID YOUNG VOTERS MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN 2006?

• Selected statewide races in key states
  Virginia, Montana
• Pulled data from the 10 youngest and oldest
  counties
• Compared turnout and registration rates in 2006
  and earlier years

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YOUNG VOTERS MADE THE DIFFERENCE Virginia Senate
Relative turnout ratio of young counties to
old counties
Change in Registrations by Counties 2003-2006
2.4 million votes were cast Webb defeated Allen
by 9,329 That margin can be accounted for by
increased turnout and registration in
Charlottesville and Norfolk alone
.829
7.2
.538
4.1
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YOUNG VOTERS MADE THE DIFFERENCE Montana Senate
Relative turnout ratio of young counties to
old counties
Change in Registrations by Counties 2002-2006
.819
7.7
Tester topped Senator Burns by 3,562 votes All
of those votes can be accounted for by a surge
in registration and turnout around the
University of Montana campus in Missoula.
.777
- 4.4
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SUMMARY OF INTERVIEW FINDINGS

• Young voters (like Seniors, Unions, Minorities,
  Religious, etc.) are a major voting bloc and key
  component of election victories
• Not enough campaign professionals are aware of
  the trend and relative size of the demographic
  (more votes were cast by Americans 65 in 2004)
• The most successful campaigns in 2006
• Integrated youth into campaign staff
• Ceded some control, especially with new media
• Blended new technology with traditional
  grassroots tactics
• Although strategies and tactics are important --
  they always remain second to candidate and message

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