Thomas Frey Senior Futurist

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Thomas FreySenior Futurist
Emerging TrendsGlobal Trends the New
Innovation Landscape

• DaVinci Institute
• PO Box 270315
• Louisville, CO 80027
• [phone]
• dr2tom_at_davinciinstitute.com

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Worlds Most Famous Person

• Who is the worlds most famous person?(Non-religi
  ous)

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Worlds Most Famous Person

• The worlds most famous person has not yet been
  born.
• What is the accomplishment that will make that
  person so famous?

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Curing Cancer

• University of Chicago economists Kevin Murphy (L)
  and Robert Topel (R) say finding a cure for
  cancer will be worth about 50 trillion in social
  value.

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A Base on the Moon
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Mass Energy Storage
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Global Climate Control
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The Flying Car
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Why Do We Care About the Future?
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Why Do We Care About the Future?

• Life around us today is hard

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Why Do We Care About the Future?

• Each day the pace of life and the demands placed
  on our time continues to escalate

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Why Do We Care About the Future?

• The news we see on TV paints a very grim
  picture of who we are and what weve become

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Why Do We Care About the Future?

• At every turn we face new challenges too
  many people, incurable diseases, famines,
  droughts, poverty, shortages, and new disasters
  waiting to happen

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Why Do We Care About the Future?

• but the one place we can escape and feel hope
  for a better life is in the future

Image by Stephan Martiniere
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Why Do We Care About the Future?

• The future is a special place in our dreams

Image by Patrick Turner
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Why Do We Care About the Future?

• The future is filled with ideas and energy

Image by Stephan Martiniere
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Why Do We Care About the Future?

• But most importantly, the future is where our
  children live

Image by Patrick Turner
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Creating the Future

• Throughout history, people with vision have
  been creating the future

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History of the Future

• Leonardo da Vinci - 1500

da Vinci Flying Machine
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History of the Future

• Leonardo da Vinci - 1500
• Jules Verne - 1870

Twenty Thousand Leagues Under the Sea
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History of the Future

• Leonardo da Vinci - 1500
• Jules Verne 1870
• Alex Raymond - 1934

Flash Gordon - Space Soldiers 1936
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History of the Future

• Leonardo da Vinci - 1500
• Jules Verne 1870
• Alex Raymond - 1934
• The Jetsons - 1962

William Hanna/Joseph Barbera Production
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History of the Future

• Leonardo da Vinci - 1500
• Jules Verne 1870
• Alex Raymond - 1934
• The Jetsons 1962
• Gene Roddenberry - 1966

Star Trek Starship Enterprise
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History of the Future

• Leonardo da Vinci - 1500
• Jules Verne 1870
• Alex Raymond - 1934
• The Jetsons 1962
• Gene Roddenberry - 1966
• Arthur C. Clark - 1968

2001 A Space Odyssey
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History of the Future

• Leonardo da Vinci - 1500
• Jules Verne 1870
• Alex Raymond - 1934
• The Jetsons 1962
• Gene Roddenberry - 1966
• Arthur C. Clark 1968
• Philip K. Dick - 1968

Blade Runner - 1968
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History of the Future

• Leonardo da Vinci - 1500
• Jules Verne 1870
• Alex Raymond - 1934
• The Jetsons 1962
• Gene Roddenberry - 1966
• Arthur C. Clark 1968
• Philip K. Dick - 1968
• George Lucas - 1975

Star Wars- Empire Strikes Back
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History of the Future

• Leonardo da Vinci - 1500
• Jules Verne 1870
• Alex Raymond - 1934
• The Jetsons 1962
• Gene Roddenberry - 1966
• Arthur C. Clark 1968
• Philip K. Dick - 1968
• George Lucas 1975
• Luc Besson - 1997

The Fifth Element
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Our Image of the Future Determines Our Actions
Today
Image by Stephan Martiniere
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• The FutureCreates thePresent

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Past Visionaries have Created Our Present

• Leonardo da Vinci Gave us visions of airplanes
  helicopters
• Jules Verne Gave us visions of submarines and
  space travel
• Alex Raymond Gave us visions of rockets and
  space travel
• The Jetsons Gave us visions of robots and
  flying cars
• Gene Roddenberry Gave us visions of cell
  phones and teleportation
• Arthur C. Clark Gave us visions of talking
  computers and the space elevator
• Philip K. Dick Gave us visions of flying cars
  and time travel
• George Lucas Gave us visions of robots and
  space travel

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Our Image of the Future Determines Our Actions
Today
Image by Stephan Martiniere
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• The FutureCreates thePresent

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How Do We Create Visions of the Library of the
Future?
What are the driving forces? What things are
changing?
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The Year is 2059

• You are standing in front of a vending machine
• What form of payment will you put into it?

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Future Vending Machines

• will be mobile, perhaps flying
• will come to you
• will know what you want

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Future Vending Machines
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Future Vending Machines
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Future Vending Machines
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The Year is 2109

• What music that we listen to today, will
  people still be listening to 100 years from now?

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Future Music

• More importantly than what we will be
  listening to is how we will be listening to it.
• Will music still come from speakers?
• Will it just appear in our heads?
• Will we even have music?

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The Ultimate Music Player

• .will have the ability to assess our reaction
  to the music and will only serve up music that we
  react positively to.

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Ultimate Drink Dispenser
.will have the ability to assess what kind of
liquids our body needs and will only serve up a
liquid that we react positively to.
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Perfect Water
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Global Trend 1

• The Age of Hyper-Individuality

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Age of Hyper-Individuality

• We now believe there is a product to solve every
  problem, need, or desire

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Age of Hyper-Individuality

• Categories and groupings are no longer sufficient
  in defining the divergent characteristics of
  people

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Age of Hyper-Individuality

• With the explosion of data from the Internet,
  cell phones, and credit cards, the people who can
  make sense of it all are redefining our world

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Age of Hyper-Individuality

• Every personality trait that can be sorted
  mathematically defines the basis for a new market

The Numerati by Steve Baker
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Global Trend 2

• Atoms Vs. Electrons

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Atoms Vs. Electrons

• There is a war being waged between atoms and
  electrons
• Digital and virtual is moving exponentially
  faster than anything that requires manipulating
  physical materials
• The disruptors are armed with electrons

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Atoms Vs. Electrons

• Physical Products
• Designers and engineers
• Shipping
• Receiving
• Inventory
• Planning
• Warehouse
• Marketing
• Sales

• Digital Products
• Designers and programmers
• Marketing

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Global Trend 3

• Search Engines for the Physical World

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Search Trends

• Search Technology will become increasingly more
  complicated

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Search Attributes

• Text to text
• Text to image
• Text to audio
• Text to video
• Limited image to image
• Limited image to video
• Limited audio to audio
• Limited video to video

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Future Search Attributes

• Smell
• Taste
• Texture
• Reflectivity
• Harmonic vibration
• Specific gravity

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Improving Our Vision

• Searching for my glasses
• Searching in the digital world vs. searching in
  the physical world

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RFID Technology
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Smart Goggles

• Japans Yasuo Kuniyoshis memory recall invention

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Smart Goggles

• By overlaying the video stream with biometric
  data, we can determine what things are important
  to that individual and anticipate their value
  judgments in the future

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Global Trend 4

• The Diminishing Value of Proximity

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In the Past

• collective intelligence was achieved by putting
  like-minded people in the same room
• through proximity

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The Value of Proximity

• We choose where we live, work, and conduct
  business based on proximity of key assets

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The Value of Proximity

• Most Critical Business Assets
• Customers
• Talent
• Vendors
• Suppliers
• Business Networks
• Favorable Laws
• Airport
• Business Services

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Telepresence Room
Today we have other ways to compensate for
physical proximity
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Telepresence Room
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Human Connectedness

• Communities in the future will be designed around
  new ways for people to meet people.

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Human Connectedness

• Future communities will be judged by their
  vibrancy, their interconnectedness, the fluid
  structures for causing positive human collisions

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Global Trend 5

• The Empire of One

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Empire of One

• One person business with far reaching influence

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Empire of One

• Typical Scenario
• Products manufactured in China or India
• Sent to a distribution center in Spain, Norway or
  Canada
• Sold to customers in the UK, Germany, or Brazil
• All controlled by one person

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Empire of One

• Outsource Everything
• Manufacturing
• Operations
• Marketing
• Distribution
• Bookkeeping
• Legal

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Empire of One

• Eliminate HR problems
• Freedom to travel
• Control your own destiny

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Empire of One

• Examples
• SuperStructs
• Cuff Daddy
• Monkey-Toes
• Licorice International

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Business Colonies

• The cost of employment will continue to rise
• We are putting more and more power into the hands
  of the individual

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Business Colonies

• Business projects will form and disappear
  organically
• Groupings of project people working together as
  projects form, complete, and disappear

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Business Colonies

• Business colonies will form around diverse
  industries - photonics, nanotech, biotech,
  consumer products, IT niches and many more

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Business Colonies
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Global Trend 6

• Social Reform

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Living Single

• 2005 was the first year in the U.S. when over 50
  of women reported being single
• Over 50 increase in the number of people living
  alone in the last 20 years

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Marriage Trends

• Marriages today are held together by emotions
  without the reinforcing glue of economic
  dependency

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Marriage Trends

• Raising children is an activity that has been
  increasingly decoupled from marriage

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Counter Trend

• Parents living with adult children grew 67
  percent to 3.6 million since 2000

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Critical Trend

• Global Population Decline

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Critical Trends

• Average life expectancy is increasing 2.5 years
  every decade
• Living longer, fewer kids

Ken Dykwald
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Critical Trends

• Declining Fertility Rates
• Fertility decline seen in Mexico - plummeting
  fertility rate from 6.5 in 1970 to 2.2 today
• World average declined from 4.5 to 2.5
• Mexico could face population declines by as early
  as 2030

AARP
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Critical Trends

• Blended Society Today over 3 million
  marriages in the US are interracial a 1,000
  increase in the past 30 years.

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Global Trend 7

• Transition from a Product-Based Economy to an
  Experience-Based Economy

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Experience Based Economy

• Reputations are based on our experiences, not
  what we own
• Experiences are now valued more than the product
  itself

Extreme Ironing
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The Ultimate Experience?
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The Ultimate Experience?
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The Ultimate Experience?

• Hangboarding

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The Ultimate Experience?
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Ultimate Dining Experience
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Ultimate Dining Experience
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The Ultimate Experience?

• The Sultans Elephant

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The Ultimate Experience?Dreamhack in Sweden 2006
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Global Trend 8

• Emerging New Power ToolPrize Competitions

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1850 - Popularity of Billiards
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Michael Phelan

• The Father of American Billiards

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1859

• Michael Phelan's Billiard Saloon

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Phelan Collender

• One of Americas largest billiard companies

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Phelan and Collander

• Ivory billiard balls

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1863

• 100,000 elephants per year were being killed
  to meet the growing demand for billiard balls

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1863

• They could only get eight billiard balls from
  a single elephant

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The Phelan and Collander Prize

• 1863 A prize of 10,000 to for the first person
  who could devise an alternative to ivory for
  billiard balls

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1869 - John Wesley Hyatt

• Inventor of Celluloid
• Won the 10,000 prize
• Later founded the Albany Billiard Ball Company

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Albany Billiard Ball Company

• Workers turning rough billiard balls in lathes

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Many Happy Elephants
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The Power of the Prize

• Many times in the past prizes have been used to
  alter the course of history

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1919 Orteig Prize

• 1927 - 25,000 won by Charles Lindbergh

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1959 Kremer Prize

• 1979 - 95,000 prize won by Paul MacCready for
  the Gossamer Albatros

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1980 Fredkin Prize

• 1997 - 100,000 prize (later raised to 1.1
  million) IBM vs. Garry Kasparov - won by IBMs
  Deep Blue

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1996 Ansari X-Prize
2004 - 10 million prize won by Paul Allen and
Burt Rutan
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2002 DARPA Grand Challenge

• 2005 The first 2 million prize won by
  Stanford Universitys Stanley Team

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The Most Famous Prize

• The most famous prizes today are the Nobel Prizes
• They are backward-looking

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Trained to Compete

• People are very good at competing. But in most
  fields, we have been running a race without a
  finish line.

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Creating New Challenges

• So how do we build new challenges?
• How do we use this process to solve some of the
  worlds biggest problems?

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Tapping into the Hive Mind

• Solving some of the worlds biggest problems will
  require us to find a way to tap into the
  collective intelligence of large groups of people
• Collective Consciousness
• Universal Mind
• Group Mind

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What if

• we could solve some of the worlds biggest
  problems with prize competitions?

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What if

• we created a competition for human-safe
  mosquitoes?

that feed off of other mosquitoes!
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What if

• we created a competition for a new way to get
  cheap, clean drinking water from the ocean

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What if

• we created a competition for Maglev Wind
  Turbines that could power an entire city for the
  next 500 years?

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What if

• we created a competition for controlling the
  force of hurricanes?

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What if

• we created a competition for finding cures to
  cancer, diabetes, and heart disease?

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What if

• we created a competition for reinventing our
  financial systems?

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What if

• we could solve some of the worlds worst
  conflicts with a prize competitions?

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Prize Competitions

• Draw attention to specific problems
• Focus efforts on a single goal
• Circumvent political lobbies and political will
• Transition the accomplishments from academia to
  the entrepreneurs

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Android Phone Competition

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Android Phone Competition

• 10M in prize money to fund new applications for
  the Google Android Phone
• Over 1,700 applications available when product
  was introduced

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Using Prizes as a Power Tool for Innovation

• Sponsoring prizes as a social cause
• Shows you care about your customers
• Ties your brand with important causes
• Creating prizes that engage your customers in the
  product development process
• Shows respect for their ideas
• Enters the mind through a different doorway
• Occupy far greater mindshare

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Mark Twain

• A man who carries a cat by the tail learns
  something he can learn in no other way 

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Thomas FreySenior Futurist
Emerging TrendsGlobal Trends the New
Innovation Landscape

• DaVinci Institute
• PO Box 270315
• Louisville, CO 80027
• [phone]
• dr2tom_at_davinciinstitute.com

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Will Rogers

• Colleges ain't what they used to be and never
  was. -- Will Rogers

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