Is Global Warming Caused by Humans

1
Is Global Warming Caused by Humans?
2
In the space of one hundred and seventy-six
years, the Lower Mississippi has shortened itself
two hundred and forty-two miles. That is an
average of a trifle over one mile and a third per
year. Therefore, any calm person, who is not
blind or idiotic, can see that in the Old Oolitic
Silurian Period, just a million years ago next
November, the Lower Mississippi River was upwards
of one million three hundred thousand miles long,
and stuck out over the Gulf of Mexico like a
fishing-rod. And by the same token any person can
see that seven hundred and forty-two years from
now the Lower Mississippi will be only a mile and
three-quarters long, and Cairo and New Orleans
will have joined their streets together, and be
plodding comfortably along under a single mayor
and a mutual board of aldermen. There is
something fascinating about science. One gets
such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such
a trifling investment of fact. Mark Twain- Life
on the Mississippi
3
Consensus

• In science, consensus is irrelevant. What is
  relevant is reproducible results. The greatest
  scientists in history are great precisely because
  they broke with the consensus
• Michael Crichton (2003)

4
Science Vs. Consensus

• --What Scientists Believe
• 34 of environmental
• scientists Practitioners
• disagree that global
• warming is a serious
• problem facing the planet.

Global Climate Change Survey, National Registry
of Environmental Professionals, November 2006
5
41 Disagree that the planets recent warmth can
be, in large part, attributed to human activity.
Global Climate Change Survey, National Registry
of Environmental Professionals, November 2006
6
Consensus on Global Warming

• Most scientists are not climatologists. Most work
  in other fields and many maybe observing
  first-hand the effects of climate change. No
  doubt many have been convinced man is behind it
  by the hockey stick (though 17,200 of them signed
  petition urging US not to sign Kyoto).
• Many climatologists that work closely with the
  data see the importance of local factors such as
  urbanization and see changes that are cyclical
  and natural.
• Survey of American Association of State
  Climatologists in 1997 showed 73 felt natural
  cycles were largely behind climate changes,
  especially the old-timers who have seen this
  frenzied overreaction to change before.

7
(Gray 2006)
8
What is the predicted temperature increase?
9
The Official Warming Estimates (U.N.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)

• Computerized climate models have led to future
  warming estimates by 2100 of from 1.1 to 2.9 deg.
  C (low emissions) to 2.4 to 6.4 deg. C (high
  emissions)..
• Direct surface warming from 2xCO2 is only 0.6 deg
  C (about 1 deg. F)
• Thus, climate models have net POSITIVE feedbacks
  (they respond to a warming tendency with changes
  that amplify the 1 deg. F CO2-only warming).
• This is a WIDE range of warming estimates,
  illustrating substantial uncertainty (mainly from
  cloud feedback differences between models)

10
How do they measure the temperatures?
11
Surface weather stations Note concentration in
US and western Europe. Vast areas of the world
with no coverage. Ocean 70 of surface.
12
Data

• Deficiencies in the accuracy, quality and
  continuity of the records place SERIOUS
  limitations on the confidence that can be placed
  in the research results.
• US National Research Council Report, February 3,
  1999
• Its very clear we do not have a climate
  observing systemThis may come as a shock to many
  people who assume that we do know adequately
  whats going on with the climate but we dont.
• Kevin Trenberth, National Center for Atmospheric
  research Boulder, CO.

13
Figure 15 Surface temperature trends for 1940 to
1996 from 107 measuring stations in 49 California
counties (51,52). The trends were combined for
counties of similar population and plotted with
the standard errors of their means. The six
measuring stations in Los Angeles County were
used to calculate the standard error of that
county, which is plotted at a population of 8.9
million. The urban heat island effect on surface
measurements is evident. The straight line is a
least-squares fit to the closed circles. The
points marked X are the six unadjusted station
records selected by NASAGISS (53-55) for use in
their estimate of global surface temperatures.
Such selections make NASA GISS temperatures too
high.
14
Temperature trend for 25 remote Australian
stations, since 1882
Geraldton, Narrabri, Hay, Albany, Rottnest Island
Lighthouse, Walgett, Deniliquin, Bourke, Cape
Naturaliste Lighthouse,    Coonabarabran,
Echuca,  Cooma, Darwin, Moruya Heads Pilot
Station, Omeo, Dubbo, Alice Springs, Gabo Island
Lighthouse, Bathurst, Strathalbyn, Mt. Gambier,
Yamba,  Wilsons Promontory Lighthouse,  
Newcastle Signal  Station,  Cape Otway Lighthouse
15
Temperature trend for 6 Capital cities in
Australia, since 1882
Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide,
Hobart
16
The global average surface temperature has
increased by 0.6 0.2C(33) since the late 19th
century. Climate Change 2001 The Scientific
Basis, IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR), page
26 This is a 66 error factor of measuring the
PAST temperature, not the future!40 of their
about 300 Southern Hemisphere stations are cities
with population over 50,000 people
17
Disclosure

• P.D. Jones refuses to disclose how he achieved
  the number.
• "We have 25 or so years invested in the work. Why
  should I make the data available to you, when
  your aim is to try and find something wrong with
  it."
• (Jones reply to Warwick Hughes, 21. February
  2005 confirmed by Jones when asked by Von
  Storch)

Link to a critique of the Jones papers.
18
Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS)
P.D.Jones
Claim an accurate record for the last 130 years,
but note there are less than 1000 stations with
100 years of record. We have less stations now
than in 1960.
19
Figure 14 Satellite microwave sounding unit
(blue) measurements of tropospheric temperatures
in the Northern Hemisphere between 0 and 82.5 N,
Southern Hemisphere between 0 and 82.5 S, tropics
between 20S and 20N, and the globe between 82.5N
and 82.5S between 1979 and 2007 (29), and
radiosonde balloon (red) measurements in the
tropics (29). The balloon measurements confirm
the satellite technique (29-31). The warming
anomaly in 1997-1998 (gray) was caused by El
Niño, which, like the overall trends, is
unrelated to CO2 (32).
20
What is the temperature history?
21
Global Warming (at least since 1920) is
Real But how unusual is it? How much of it is
natural versus man-made?
Data source J. Hansen/ GISS
Little Ice Age
22
Manns Hockey Stick Graph
23
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24
The famous Mann et al. Hockey Stick had errors
in statistical analysis methods. (A National
Academies Review Panel July 2006 changed the
Hockey Stick conclusion from warmest in 1,000
years to warmest in 400 years)
McIntyre-McKitrick, 2003
25
Get Rid of the MWP

• D. Deming, Science 1995
• With the publication of the article in Science
  in 1995, I gained significant credibility in
  the community of scientists working on climate
  change. They thought I was one of them, someone
  who would pervert science in the service of
  social and political causes. So one of them let
  his guard down. A major person working in the
  area of climate change and global warming sent me
  an astonishing email that said

We have to get rid of the Medieval Warm Period.
Source Presentation by S McIntyre At Conference
Stockholm Sweden, September 9 2006
26
Figure 1 Surface temperatures in the Sargasso
Sea, a 2 million square mile region of the
Atlantic Ocean, with time resolution of 50 to 100
years and ending in 1975, as determined by
isotope ratios of marine organism remains in
sediment at the bottom of the sea (3). The
horizontal line is the average temperature for
this 3,000-year period. The Little Ice Age and
Medieval Climate Optimum were naturally
occurring, extended intervals of climate
departures from the mean. A value of 0.25 C,
which is the change in Sargasso Sea temperature
between 1975 and 2006, has been added to the 1975
data in order to provide a 2006 temperature value.
27
Medieval Warming

• 800-1300 AD, Vikings Colonize Greenland Iceland
• Retreat of Arctic Sea Ice
• Wine grapes harvested in England

Arm of Ericsfjord, on which Eric the Red had his
farm(Dale Mackenzie Brown)
28
Recent Greenland Discovery

• DNA ice core drilling samples
• Coniferous trees, beetles, and boreal forest
  plants covered Southern Greenland as far back as
  450,000 800,000 years ago.
• Science 6 July, 2007 Vol. 317 no. 5834, pp 36-37
• Eske Willerslev, Director of the Centre for
  Ancient Genetics at the University of Copenhagen
  Willerslev has 8 years experience extracting
  ancient DNA from ice core sampling.

29
What about Greenhouse gases and CO2?
30
Most people are unaware water vapor is by far the
most important greenhouse gas
Source F.Singer, 2003
31
Atmospheric Composition and Greenhouse Gases
Natural Variations
Human Greenhouse Gas Radiative Forcing Since
pre-Industrial Times
Natural Variations
Variable gases
32
Global Warming Basic Hypothesis

• Carbon Dioxide is a greenhouse gas,
• it is increasing in the atmosphere (at ½ rate of
  human production),
• therefore, the lower atmosphere MUST warm

CO2 concentration is now about gt 40 above
pre-industrial times.
33
but CO2 is still a trace gas (not much of it)
2005
1958
34
2005
1958
35
2005
1958
36
2005
1958
37
2005
38
Lets go back farther, before 1958.
39
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40
Callendar said. . .

• The 19th century average CO2 concentration was
  292 ppm.

41
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42
What about Icecaps, Glaciers, and rising sea
levels?
43
Glaciers have been shrinking since last ice
age at varying rates as a function of cycles in
temperatures and precipitation
44
Figure 2 Average length of 169 glaciers from
1700 to 2000 (4). The principal source of melt
energy is solar radiation. Variations in glacier
mass and length are primarily due to temperature
and precipitation (5,6). This melting trend lags
the temperature in crease by about 20 years, so
it pre dates the 6-fold in crease in hydrocarbon
use (7) even more than shown in the figure.
Hydrocarbon use could not have caused this
shortening trend.
45
Figure 11 Global sea level measured by surface
gauges between 1807 and 2002 (24) and by
satellite between 1993 and 2006 (25). Satellite
measurements are shown in gray and agree with
tide gauge measurements. The overall trend is an
increase of 7 inches per century. Intermediate
trends are 9, 0, 12, 0, and 12 inches per
century, respectively. This trend lags the
temperature increase, so it predates the increase
in hydrocarbon use even more than is shown. It is
unaffected by the very large increase in
hydrocarbon use.
46
Grinnel Glacier (Glacier National Park, Canada)
47
Glacier National Park, Canada
48
1910-1952 Photo Comparison, Gulkana Glacier,
Alaska
49
Figure 12 Glacier shortening (4) and sea level
rise (24,25). Gray area designates estimated
range of error in the sea level record. These
measurements lag air temperature increases by
about 20 years. So, the trends began more than a
century before increases in hydrocarbon use.
50
What about Antarctica?
51
Antarctica Summer 2002 Larsen Ice Sheet Break-up
52
Antarctica

• Though reports of sudden though brief break-up of
  Larsen Ice sheet near Antarctic Peninsula
  captured the headlines in 2002 and was blamed on
  global warming , NASA found the duration of ice
  cover has actually increased 2 to 3 days per year
  most areas around Antarctica and total extent of
  ice has been increasing since 1979
• Greenhouse theory predicts greatest warming at
  the poles. NASA GISS data shows with the
  exception of the Antarctic Peninsula where there
  has been a warming due to less ice, over the vast
  interior, a cooling has been observed in the last
  50 years.

53

• -The Antarctic Peninsula (where you hear about
  ice breaking off) makes up only 2 of total area
  of Antarctica.
• -The remainder of the continent, and its
  surrounding Southern
• Ocean, has been accumulating ice during the past
  several decades.

54
Total Antarctic ice anomalies NASA National Snow
and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)
55
Second solar max was a high flux event that
caused a break-up of the southern vortex for the
first time in history. Changes in winds and
current temporarily disrupted the ice. When the
suns quieted, the ice resumed its increase
Sept 2001- April 2002
Area anomalies Antarctic Ice NASA National Snow
and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)
56
Winters are colder over the continent (more than
1F in the last 50 years)
Note 2004 winter was the coldest
of the entire record
Data from Monthly NASA GISS data for
Amundsen-Scot 1957-2005 http//data.giss.nasa.gov/
work/gistemp/STATIONS//tmp.700890090008.1.1/statio
n.txt
57
They Blame it on Ozone

• Concerned that the antarctic is cooling and not
  warming as greenhouse theory predicts, NASAs
  Shindell and Schmidt ran a model using ozone and
  CO2 that showed cooling and theorized that the
  combination is causing the positive phase of the
  southern polar annular mode (SAM). As the ozone
  diminishes they suggest the SAM will flip
  negative and a sudden warming will follow.
• However, Jones and Widman of GKSS noted the SAM
  was decidedly negative in the 1960s to 1980s
  without major associated warming

58
Old Byrd Station

• Established in 1957 by the U.S. Army, Byrd
  Station has been shut down because it is buried
  beneath 40 to 50 ft. of ice and snow and is
  slowly being crushed.
• -construction crane- -115 ft. transmission
  towers-

59
Greenland is Melting?
60
Greenland

• Temperatures in Greenland were actually colder in
  the 1980s and early 1990s than anytime since the
  1800s.
• In late 1990s, when the Atlantic warmed,
  temperatures rose, but have not yet reached the
  peak set in 1930s and 1940s.
• Icecap depth is increasing in the interior but
  now eroding in some areas near the edges as they
  did 70 years ago, but not due to global warming,
  just natural cycles in the Atlantic

61
Glacier Girl

• Lost 1942
• Recovered 1992
• Buried under 268 feet of ice

62
What about the Arctic?

• It is warming a little and ice is melting.

63
Arctic

• Arctic ice has diminished in thickness and extent
  in the summer since the Great Pacific Climate
  shift in 1978
• JAMSTEC (2006) has found that this is related to
  warm water from the North Pacific moving into the
  Arctic
• Dmitrenko and Polyokov found warm Atlantic water
  flows under arctic ice and is playing a role in
  ice thinning as it did in 1930s (when thickness
  decreased by 30 from 1890)

Note the drop off in 1978 at the time of The
Great Pacific Climate Shift
64
Soon has shown a much better correlation of the
arctic ice with solar than with CO2. Perhaps
it is that high solar may excite (cause the
thermohaline circulation to increase - aPDO,
AMO) as another way to redistrubute excess
tropical heat?
65
What about those polar bears in the movie? They
live in the Arctic. How are they affected?
66
The Polar Bears are swimming around and drowning,
right?

• Canadas Eastern Arctic
• -Boothia Peninsula
• Population increase 900-1,500 bears.
• -Davis Strait
• 850-2,100 bears.
• Canada allows the Inuit to hunt polar
• Bears. That generates 3.5 million a year
• in sporting hunts and sale of hides.
• There arent just a few more bears.
• There are a hell of a lot more bears.
• Dr. Mitchell Taylor
• Dr. Taylor is the foremost Canadian expert with
  20 years studying the polar bear. Polar Bear
  Biologist, Department of the Environment,
  Government of Nunavut, Igloolik, Nunavut, Canada
  

67
But what about Mount Kilamanjaro?
68
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69
Mt. Kilimanjaro Is Melting?

• Deforestation
• Forest Fires
• Glacier receding since
• 1912
• Less moisture retention reduces precipitation and
  increases solar radiation and glacial
  evaporation.
• -Douglas R. Hardy Climatologist at the
  University of Massachusetts in Amherst-

70
Kilamanjaro Snowfield

• Certainly not due to global warming
  temperatures have been cooling last 25 years
• Ice retreat has been due to less snow, explained
  by the deforestation.

71
No runaway warming in the Pacific Northwest
Mountains
72
New World Seasonal Snowfall

• The Mt. Baker Ski Area in northwestern Washington
  State reported 1,140 inches of snowfall for the
  1998-99 snowfall season ending June 30, 1999.
  This was a new world record for seasonal
  snowfall.
• The previous U.S. and world seasonal snowfall
  record was 1,122 inches in the 1971-1972 snowfall
  season at the Paradise Ranger Station on Mt.
  Rainer, also in Washington State and about 150
  miles south of Mt. Baker.

73
Can there be another explanation for increasing
arctic temperatures?
74
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75
Figure 3 Arctic surface air temperature compared
with total solar irradiance as measured by
sunspot cycle amplitude, sunspot cycle length,
solar equatorial rotation rate, fraction of
penumbral spots, and decay rate of the 11-year
sunspot cycle (8,9). Solar irradiance correlates
well with Arctic temperature, while hydrocarbon
use (7) does not correlate.
76
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77
Figure 4 Annual mean surface temperatures in the
contiguous United States between 1880 and 2006
(10). The slope of the least-squares trend line
for this 127-year record is 0.5 ºC per century.
78
Figure 5 U.S. surface temperature from Figure 4
as com pared with total solar irradiance (19)
from Figure 3.
79
Sunspot records begin with Galileo in 1610 That
is cycle 1. We are currently entering cycle 23
Basically, when Sunspot number is low the earth
is cold, when it is high the earth is warm.
Source Wei-Hock Soon, 2004
80
The globally averaged sea surface temperatures
are plotted with the sunspot numbers (Reid
1999). Both sunspot number and solar cycle
length are proxies for the amount of solar energy
that Earth receives. The similarity of these
curves is evidence that the sun has influenced
the climate of the last 150 years.
81
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82
11 year solar cycles themselves vary in their
strength on a longer term with cycles of 80 and
200 years
Active cycle periods
1700 1800 1900 2000
Quieter cycle periods
Gleissberg Cycle
83
One Scary Scenario

• 9 of 12 solar cycle predicting models/schemes
  suggest upcoming 11-year solar cycle(s) could be
  much weaker (Lund). Last cycle was 25 weaker
  than prior two cycles.
• Hathaway (NASA) says Solar Cycle 25, which peaks
  in the year 2022, should be one of the weakest
  ever observed
• Very weak solar cycles have been historically
  associated with cold periods, even mini-ice-ages

84
The Russians Agree

• Khabibulla Abdusamatov, head of space research at
  the Academic Pulkovo Observatory, reiterated his
  warning of an imminent recurrence of the
  so-called minor Ice Age, similar to the one that
  was registered in the 17th century, when
  temperatures dropped in Europe, North America and
  Greenland, the Thames and Dutch canals froze in
  winter, and people fled from Greenland because of
  unbearable cold.
• Abdusamatov and his colleagues made the shocking
  conclusion on the basis that sun emissions have
  now reached their peak, should be followed by a
  decline in solar activity.

85
Cooling May Have Already Begun

• NCDC and CRU data shows temperatures trend is
  down from peak in 1998
• NOAA research (Lyman et.al.) has shown the global
  oceans have shown rapid cooling from 2003 and
  2005 giving back 20 of the entire heat content
  gained since 1957.

86
Hows the weather changing?
87
Rainfall
88
Figure 7 Annual precipitation in the contiguous
48 United States between 1895 and 2006. U.S.
National Climatic Data Center, U.S. Department of
Commerce 2006 Climate Review (20). The trend
shows an increase in rainfall of 1.8 inches per
century approximately 6 per century.
89
Tornadoes
90
Figure 8 Annual number of strong-to-violent
category F3 to F5 tornados during the
March-to-August tornado season in the U.S.
between 1950 and 2006. U.S. National Climatic
Data Center, U.S. Department of Commerce 2006
Climate Review (20). During this period, world
hydrocarbon use increased 6-fold, while violent
tornado frequency decreased by 43.
91
Hurricanes
92
Figure 9 Annual number of Atlantic hurricanes
that made land fall between 1900 and 2006 (21).
Line is drawn at mean value.
93
Figure 10 Annual number of violent hurricanes
and maximum attained wind speed during those
hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean between 1944 and
2006 (22,23). There is no upward trend in either
of these records. During this period, world
hydrocarbon use increased 6-fold. Lines are mean
values.
94
What are the temperature trends?
95
Figure 13 Seven in dependent records solar
activity (9) Northern Hemisphere, (13), Arctic
(28), global (10), and U.S. (10) annual surface
air temperatures sea level (24,25) and glacier
length (4) all qualitatively confirm each other
by exhibiting three intermediate trends warmer,
cooler, and warmer. Sea level and glacier length
are shown minus 20 years, correcting for their
20-year lag of atmospheric temperature. Solar
activity, Northern Hemisphere temperature, and
glacier lengths show a low in about 1800.
Hydrocarbon use (7) is uncorrelated with
temperature. Temperature rose for a century
before significant hydrocarbon use. Temperature
rose between 1910 and 1940, while hydrocarbon use
was almost unchanged. Temperature then fell
between 1940 and 1972, while hydrocarbon use rose
by 330. Also, the 150 to 200-year slopes of the
sea level and glacier trends were unchanged by
the very large in crease in hydrocarbon use after
1940.
96
Figure 1 Surface temperatures in the Sargasso
Sea, a 2 million square mile region of the
Atlantic Ocean, with time resolution of 50 to 100
years and ending in 1975, as determined by
isotope ratios of marine organism remains in
sediment at the bottom of the sea (3). The
horizontal line is the average temperature for
this 3,000-year period. The Little Ice Age and
Medieval Climate Optimum were naturally
occurring, extended intervals of climate
departures from the mean. A value of 0.25 C,
which is the change in Sargasso Sea temperature
between 1975 and 2006, has been added to the 1975
data in order to provide a 2006 temperature value.
97
Back to the CO2 situation. . .
98
Figure 17 Atmospheric CO2 concentrations in
parts per million by volume, ppm, measured
spectrophotometrically at Mauna Loa, Hawaii,
between 1958 and 2007. These measurements agree
well with those at other locations (71). Data
before 1958 are from ice cores and chemical
analyses, which have substantial experimental
uncertainties. We have used 295 ppm for the
period 1880 to 1890, which is an average of the
avail able estimates. About 0.6 Gt C of CO2 is
produced annually by human respiration and of ten
leads to concentrations exceeding 1,000 ppm in
public buildings. Atmospheric CO2 has increased
22 since 1958 and about 30 since 1880.
99
Where is the Carbon?

• Atmosphere 780 Gt C
• Surface Ocean 1000 Gt C
• Vegetation, soil 2000 Gt C
• Interm. and Deep Ocean 38,000 Gt C
• Atmosphere Surface Ocean
• 90 Gt C/year
• Vegetation Atmosphere
• 100 Gt C/year
• Marine biota Surface ocean
• 50 Gt C/year
• Surface ocean Interm. and Deep ocean
• 40 Gt C/year

100
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101
Antarctic ice core records showing temperature
and CO2 changes for last 420,000 thousand years.
102
J. R. Petit, et al, "Climate and atmospheric
history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok
ice core, Antarctica" in Nature 399, pg 429 (3
June 1999).
103
Figure 16 Temperature rise versus CO2 rise from
seven ice-core measured interglacial periods
(63-65) from calculations (69) and measurements
(70) of sea water out-gassing and as measured
during the 20th and 21st centuries rises through
(10,72). The interglacial temperature increases
caused the CO2 release of ocean CO2. The CO2
rises did not cause the temperature rises.
In addition to the agreement between the
out-gassing estimates and measurements, this
conclusion is also verified by the small
temperature rise during the 20th and 21st
centuries. If the CO2 versus temperature
correlation during the seven interglacials had
been caused by CO2 green house warming, then the
temperature rise per CO2 rise would have been as
high during the 20th and 21st centuries as it was
during the seven interglacial periods.
104
How about the computer models?
105
Figure 18 Qualitative illustration of green
house warming. Present GHE is the current green
house effect from all atmospheric phenomena.
Radiative effect of CO2 is the added greenhouse
radiative effect from doubling CO2 without
consideration of other atmospheric components.
Hypothesis 1 IPCC is the hypothetical
amplification effect assumed by IPCC, Hypothesis
2 is the hypothetical moderation effect.
106
Figure 19 The radiative greenhouse effect of
doubling the concentration of (right bar) as
compared with four of the uncertainties in the
atmospheric CO2 computer climate models (87,93).
107
Al Gores Own Words

• .what is most dangerous for us is not what we
  dont know, but that which we know for sure which
  just aint so
• Though meant for the politicians and skeptics,
  it really applies to Al Gore and the green
  machine
• By focusing solely on greenhouse gases and
  discouraging efforts to understand other factors,
  we stand to be blindsided when other factors
  change and the climate makes its next quick about
  face

108
How does CO2 affect the environment besides
temperature?
109
Figure 21 Standard deviation from the mean of
tree ring widths for (a) bristlecone pine, limber
pine, and fox tail pine in the Great Basin of
California, Nevada, and Arizona and (b)
bristlecone pine in Colorado (110). Tree ring
widths were averaged in 20-year segments and then
normalized so that the means of prior tree growth
were zero. The deviations from the means are
shown in units of standard deviations of those
means.
110
Figure 22 Inventories of standing hardwood and
softwood timber in the, United States compiled in
Forest Resources of the United States 2002, U.S.
Department of Agriculture Forest Service
(111,112). The linear trend cited in 1998 (1)
with an in crease of 30 has continued. The
increase is now 40. The amount of U.S. timber is
rising almost 1 per year.
111
Figure 23 Summary data from 279 published
experiments in which plants of all types were
grown under paired stressed (open red circles)
and unstressed (closed blue circles) conditions
(114). There were 208, 50, and 21 sets at 300,
600, and an average of about 1350 ppm CO2,
respectively. The plant mixture in the 279
studies was slightly biased toward plant types
that respond less to CO2 fertilization than does
the actual global mixture. Therefore, the figure
underestimates the expected global response. CO2
enrichment also allows plants to grow in drier
regions, further increasing the response.
112
Figure 24 Calculated (1,2) growth rate
enhancement of wheat, young orange trees, and
very young pine trees already taking place as a
result of atmospheric enrichment by CO2 at from
1885 to 2007 (a), and expected as result of
atmospheric enrichment by CO2 to a level of 600
ppm (b).
113
Where do we get our energy?
114
Figure 25 In 2006, the United States obtained
84.9 of its energy from hydrocarbons, 8.2 from
nuclear fuels, 2.9 from hydroelectric dams, 2.1
from wood, 0.8 from biofuels, 0.4 from waste,
0.3 from geothermal, and 0.3 from wind and
solar radiation. The U.S. uses 21 million barrels
of oil per day 27 from OPEC, 17 from Canada
and Mexico, 16 from others, and 40 produced in
the U.S. (95). The cost of imported oil and gas
at 60 per barrel and 7 per 1,000 ft3 in 2007 is
about 300 billion per year.
115
Figure 26 Delivered cost per kilowatt hour of
electrical energy in Great Britain in 2006,
without CO2 controls (126). These estimates
include all capital and operational expenses for
a period of 50 years. Micro wind or solar are
units installed for individual homes.
116
Figure 27 Construction of one Palo Verde
installation with 10 reactors in each of the 50
states. Energy trade deficit is reversed by 500
billion per year, resulting in a 200 billion
annual surplus. Currently, this solution is not
possible owing to misguided government policies,
regulations, and taxation and to legal maneuvers
available to anti-nuclear activists. These
impediments should be legislatively repealed.
117
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