Greenhouse gas emission scenarios for agriculture in Finland

1
Greenhouse gas emission scenarios for agriculture
in Finland
UNFCCC Workshop on Emissions Projections from
Annex I Parties, 6-8.9.2004, Wissenschaftszentrum,
Bonn, Germany
Paula Perälä, Heikki Lehtonen MTT Agrifood
Research Finland
paula.perala_at_mtt.fiheikki.lehtonen_at_mtt.fi
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Background

• Previous agricultural scenarios developed in
  2001, presented in Finlands Third National
  Communication Under The United Nations
  Framework Convention on Climate Change
• No major changes in agricultural policy since
  the previous emission scenarios
• Development of emissions in line with the
  previously projeted emissions
• Process of updating previous scenarios is
  under way

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Updating of agricultural emission scenarios

• Implementation and review of National Climate
  Strategy
• New reporting guidelines for Land Use, Land-Use
  Change and Forestry-gt CO2 emissions from
  agricultural soils currently included under
  Agriculture but are now to be reported under Land
  Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry
• Coordination Ministry of Agriculture and
  Forestry
• Calculations MTT Agrifood Research Finland,
  Economic Research, Environmental Research
• With Measures-scenario, With Additional
  Measures-scenario
• Emission scenarios up to 2025

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Methodology for creating agricultural emission
scenarios

• Policy scenarios
• With measures, base scenario Follows Agenda
  2000 reform
• With additional measures, CAP reform-scenario
  Follows the EU agricultural policy reform agreed
  in June 2003
• Emission scenarios-combination of two models
• MTT Agrifood Research Finland, Economic
  Research The agricultural sector model DREMFIA-gt
  dynamic recursive optimisation model simulating
  changes in agricultural production and prices
• MTT Agrifood Research Finland Model used for
  estimating annual greenhouse gas emissions in
  Finland-gt emissions reported to the UNFCCC and
  European Commission in national greenhouse gas
  inventory

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Spatial price equilibrium model drives changes in
production and prices

• The agricultural sector model DREMFIA dynamic,
  recursive optimisation model (maximises consumer
  and producer surplus), includes 18 production
  region, most important products, includes 18
  different dairy products, excludes horticulture,
  sheep and horses
• Outputs (activity data for the greenhouse gas
  emission scenarios) land use, animal production,
  use of feed, fertilisation, crop yield response
  milk yield response farm investments endogenous
  domestic product prices
• Exogenous input prices absolute production
  volume is uncertain, but changes between the
  outcomes of policy scenarios are more robust

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Model for calculating agricultural emission
scenarios

• Excel-spreadsheet model developed at VTT
  Technical Research Centre of Finland, under
  further development at MTT Agrifood Research
  Finland
• Currently includes CH4 emissions from enteric
  fermentation, CH4 and N2O emissions from manure
  management and N2O emissions from agricultual
  soils
• Emissions are calculated according to IPCC
  guidelines
• Uses the results of the DREMFIA-model as an input

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Model for calculating agricultural emission
scenarios

• Main drivers are animal numbers, milk production
  per dairy cow, the amount of syhthetic fertiliser
  sold annually and crop yields
• IPCC default emission factors used
• Expert judgement and linear interpolation/extrapol
  ation
• used for estimating the development of some
  parameters, eg. animal numbers not included into
  DREMFIA-model, development of animal weight

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Further development

• Models should be developed further in order to
  better fit together, eg. all the most important
  animal categories and crop species should be
  included
• Process for calculating emission scenarios should
  be included into the National System for making
  greenhouse gas inventories
• Models should be further developed in order to
  calculate projected CO2 emissions from
  agricultural soils according to new IPCC
  guidelines for Land Use, Land-Use Change and
  Forestry
• Use of these scenarios for the purposes of follow
  up implementation of National Climate Strategy