Prof. Martin Beniston

1
Climatic change, snowand the ski industry

• Prof. Martin Beniston
• Chair for Climate Research
• University of Geneva, Switzerland
• Martin.Beniston_at_unige.ch

Paris, March 15, 2007
2
Overview

• Introduction
• Future climate and its impacts on snow
• Consequequences for the ski industry
• Conclusions

Introduction
Future climate
Ski industry
Conclusions
3
1

• Introduction
• Future climate and its impacts on snow
• Consequequences for the ski industry
• Conclusions

Introduction
Future climate
Ski industry
Conclusions
4
Changes in snow behavior observed during the 20th
century

• Natural climate variability
• The North Atlantic Oscillation
• The enhanced greenhouse effect (?)
• Extremes

Introduction
Future climate
Ski industry
Conclusions
5
Global and Alpine temperature change in the 20th
century
1.5
1
0.5
Beniston, 2004 Kluwer/Springer Publishers
DT par rapport à 1961-1990 C
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Introduction
Future climate
Ski industry
Conclusions
6
Behavior of snow in the 1960s and the 1990s
1960s
1990s
500
100
450
90
400
80
350
70
300
60
Beniston, 2003 Theoretical and Applied
Climatology
Depth cm Säntis
Depth cm Davos and Ch. d'Oex
250
50
200
40
150
30
100
20
50
10
0
0
J
A
S
O
N
D
F
M
A
M
J
J
Month
Introduction
Future climate
Ski industry
Conclusions
7
2

• Introduction
• Future climate and its impacts on snow
• Consequequences for the ski industry
• Conclusions

Introduction
Future climate
Ski industry
Conclusions
8
Changes in snow behavior through to 2100

• The enhanced greenhouse effect
• Warmer temperatures
• Changing precipitation regimes
• Extreme events

Introduction
Future climate
Ski industry
Conclusions
9
Climate futures
6.0
A2
5.0
4.0
3.0
DT with respect to 20th-century average C
B2
2.0
1.0
0.8
IPCC, 2001 Mann et al., GRL, 1999
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
-0.4
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2050
2100
Introduction
Future climate
Ski industry
Conclusions
10
Winter temperatures at 2,500 m (Säntis)1961-1991
and 2071-2100
C
4
1961-1990
2
0
-2
Beniston, 2004 Kluwer/Springer Publishers
-4
-6
-8
2071-2100
-10
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
2071
2076
2081
2086
2091
2096
2101
Introduction
Future climate
Ski industry
Conclusions
11
Seasonal changes in rainfall for 4 models (A-2
scenario)
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
Precipitation change 2071/2100 vs 1961/1990
Beniston, 2006 Geophysical Research Letters
0.0
-10.0
HIRHAM
-20.0
CHRM
ICTP
-30.0
RCAO
-40.0
Winter (DJF)
Spring (MAM)
Summer (JJA)
Autumn (SON)
Introduction
Future climate
Ski industry
Conclusions
12
Shifts in snow volume according to altitude
4500
4000
3500
3000
Beniston, 2003 Theoretica and Appplied
Climatology
Altitude m
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
10
20
30
40
50
60

Total volume 109 m3
Introduction
Future climate
Ski industry
Conclusions
13
Changes in snow cover ina changing
climate(4C, 10 precipitation)
Beniston, 2003 Theoretica and Appplied
Climatology
Introduction
Future climate
Ski industry
Conclusions
14
3

• Introduction
• Future climate and its impacts on snow
• Consequequences for the ski industry
• Conclusions

Introduction
Future climate
Ski industry
Conclusions
15
Ski infrastructure and revenues in the Alpine
countries

• Country Resorts Turnover Skier-days
• (ski lifts) (, 2003-04) (Millions)
• France 308 (3865) 970 55
• Austria 255 (3016) 901 50
• Switzerland 230 (1672) 588 28
• Italy 200 (3100) 431 27

OECD ALPS REPORT, 2007
Introduction
Future climate
Ski industry
Conclusions
16
Numerical snow model results
Adelboden/ Cold winter 
Introduction
Future climate
Ski industry
Conclusions
17
Possible shifts in snow duration for a projected
climatic change in the Alps
Snowpack duration days
350
325
300
275
Mean winter precipitation mm/day
250
225
Beniston et al, 2003 Theoretical and Applied
Climatology
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
Mean winter temperatures C
Introduction
Future climate
Ski industry
Conclusions
18
Height of Alpine ski resorts
Periodic impacts
OECD ALPS REPORT, 2007
Likely impacts
Introduction
Future climate
Ski industry
Conclusions
19
Snow reliability for different levels of warming
OECD ALPS REPORT, 2007
Introduction
Future climate
Ski industry
Conclusions
20
Artificial snow making of domains with
snow-making equipment
Bavaria 2
Slovenia 1
Switzerland 10
French Alps 11
OECD ALPS REPORT, 2007
Austria 38
Italian Alps 38
Introduction
Future climate
Ski industry
Conclusions
21
Limits to snow-making technology

• Ambient air temperatures need to be below
  freezing
• Conflicting uses of water
• Unsustainable energy use
• Perceived negative environmental impacts

Introduction
Future climate
Ski industry
Conclusions
22
4

• Introduction
• Future climate and its impacts on snow
• Consequequences for the ski industry
• Conclusions

Introduction
Future climate
Ski industry
Conclusions
23
Summary and conclusions - 1

• Warming trends in the Alps have been relatively
  high over the past century (up to 2C increase
  since 1900) in certain areas
• Winters are projected to be warmer by 4-5C
  according to the IPCC A-2 (high emissions)
  scenario
• Precipitation is projected to increase by 5-20
  according to the region
• This implies more snow than currently, but also
  at higher elevations
• The  cutoff level  between solid and liquid
  precipitation ranges from 1500-2000 m above sea
  level

Introduction
Future climate
Ski industry
Conclusions
24
Summary and conclusions - 2

• Under present climate conditions, 599 out of the
  666 (or 90) Alpine ski areas can be considered
  as naturally snow-reliable
• The remaining 10 are already operating under
  marginal conditions (low altitudes, less than 100
  days of snow per year)
• The number of naturally snow-reliable areas would
  drop to 500 with a warming of 1C, to 404 with
  2C, and to 202 with 4C

Introduction
Future climate
Ski industry
Conclusions
25
Climatic change, snowand the ski industry

• www.unige.ch/climate
• Martin.Beniston_at_unige.ch

Thanks for your attention
Paris, March 15, 2007