APF Trading Technical Analysis Market Commentary 14 Feb 2011

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Technical Analysis14 FEB 2011
Market commentary

• APF Trading

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APF Trading

• 9 Battery Road
• 12F Straits Trading Building
• Singapore 049910  
•  
• Jay Ng
• jay.ng_at_apftrading.com
•  
• Glenn Ho
• glenn.ho_at_apftrading.com
•  
• Website
• www.apftrading.com
• www.asiapacfinance.com

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SP 500 INDEX
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SP 500 INDEX

• Bull trend is intact
• Index stayed well above the Tenkan Sen and has
  not touched Kijun Sen since Oct 2010
• From Nov 2010 til now, Tenken Sen stayed above
  Kijun Sen since the last Tenken Sen/Kijun Sen
  crossover
• Chikou Span is above index
• The current Kumo is thin but thickening

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SP 500 INDEX

• Notice how the Senkou Span A, Senkou Span B
  (Kumo), Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen all show a rough
  45 deg upslope
• Index broke the TD Sequential Risk Level at
  1257.9801 5 weeks ago on a qualified basis
  (represented by a solid line) while TD Setup is
  in early count
• Expect a higher chance of a completion of TD
  Sequential Countdown

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SP 500 INDEX

• Last weeks TD Setup perfection suggests a 1-4
  period of correction
• High probability of a 1-4 weeks correction which
  would bring the index level closer to Tenken Sen
  and Kijun Sen, before continuing the bull trend.

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DOW JONES INDUS. INDEX
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DOW JONES INDUS. INDEX
the index is well in a bull trend.

• Dow Jones Index was well supported by a thick
  Kumo from Jun 2010 to Oct 2010, rallying for
  another few months now
• Chikou Span is well above prices, with the Tenkan
  Sen above the Kijun Sen and index closed above
  the Tenken Sen for 21 weeks now
• Both the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen angles upwards
• Index is well in a bull trend

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DOW JONES INDUS. INDEX
the index is well in a bull trend.

• Thin Kumo ahead
• Weak region of support
• With the index far above the Kumo, we are
  concerned but not placing a high priority to the
  thin Kumo
• First line of defence really is still the Tenkan
  Sen (Magenta Line) and next the Kijun Sen (Yellow
  Line)
• Current TD Setup had broken up of the TD
  Sequential Risk Level at 11550.6396

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DOW JONES INDUS. INDEX
the index is well in a bull trend.

• This happened early in the count of TD Setup.
  There is a good chance this sell countdown would
  be completed
• The recent perfected TD sell setup might push the
  index into a 1-4 bar correction
• We expect the index to maintain a bull trend with
  high probability of a short term correction (1-4
  weeks)

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NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX
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NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX

• NASDAQs curent bull trend is intact with prices
  staying well above the Kijun Sen for 20 weeks now
• Chikou Span is above prices
• The Tenkan Sen, Kijun Sen as well as the Kumo all
  angle upwards
• Bull trend is still in play
• Watch for a TD Sequential Countdown completion in
  coming months
• First line of defence is the support at Tenkan
  Sen

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HANG SENG INDEX
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HANG SENG INDEX

• Hang Seng Index is stuck between the Tenkan Sen
  and Kijun Sen
• Otherwise Tenkan Sen is above Kijun Sen, Chikou
  Span above index and index is trading above
  support region of Kumo
• Note how the Tenken Sen, Kijun Sen and Kumo are
  in a flat horizontal zone
• We expect Hang Seng to trade sideways with first
  line of support at Kijun Sen (22680.4297). The
  thin Kumo weeks ahead might not be sufficient
  support should more bearish signs show up

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NIKKEI 225
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NIKKEI 225

• Chikou is above prices
• Following the Tenkan Sen Kijun Sen bullish
  crossover on weak resistance (thin Kumo) Dec
  2010, prices stayed above Tenkan Sen and Kijun
  Sen. Prices also stayed above the Kumo
• While these are bullish signs, we are cautious
  due to the structure of the Kumo forming
• The Nikkei has been stuck in a trading range for
  close to 2 years now
• Notice how the Kumo twists belly up and belly
  down while the index just got stuck in the range
• The Senkou Span B is flat for months
• The TD Sequential Risk Level (11390.7402) is
  expected to be the resistance level to watch for
• We expect more sideway action in coming months
  for the Nikkei 225

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SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE
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SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE

• Shanghai Index is drifting in the cloud with no
  clear directions at the moment
• Kumo gets thinner, index action is happening
  inside the Kumo
• Wait for clearer gloomy or clear blue skies
  scenario before getting more excited
• A week ago, index was stuck inside the Tenkan Sen
  and Kijun Sen. There was a medium strength
  bearish crossover but the Chikou Span was above
  prices.
• Sideway trading expected to be the path of least
  resistance. We will get too excited over the
  Shanghai Index until some further price action
  takes place.

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KOSPI INDEX
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KOSPI INDEX

• Index closed significantly below Tenkan Sen last
  week
• Chikou Span has been above prices for months,
  Tenkan Sen rising steadily above Kijun Sen. The
  Kumo is also thickening recently, providing
  strong support.
• Do watch the flat Kijun Sen and Senkou Span B.
  The next line of defence is the Kijun Sen at
  1920.13.
• TD Sequential Completion suggest market
  exhaustion. Index failed to break above the TD
  Risk Level on a qualified basis.
• Overall bull trend intact with a possibility of a
  pullback.

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Astra International
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Astra International

• Astra International completed TD Sequential Sell
  Countdown in Oct 2010 and prices started coming
  off, dropping below the Tenkan Sen.
• Currently, the Tenkan Sen had crossed below the
  Kijun Sen, producing a weak bearish crossover
  with the Kumo providing good support.
• Both the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen are flat
  currently. This is aligned to the fact that
  prices would hit into the Kumo in coming weeks,
  providing good support.
• Monitor the price development in coming weeks. A
  bounce off the Kumo resulting in a Tenkan Sen
  Kijun Sen bullish crossover would be a strong
  bullish crossover.

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GENTING SINGAPORE
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GENTING SINGAPORE

• Genting SP has been one of our favourite stock
  commentary pieces of late
• We mentioned weeks back how prices are failing to
  break above the TD Sequential Risk Level in a
  qualified basis, aligning with the high
  probability of a convergence of prices to the
  Kijun Sen.
• Currently we still maintain that view as prices
  develop. The rubber band effect would bring
  prices close to Kijun Sen. The Kumo is looking to
  provide good support for the stock. Watch for a
  rebound off the Kijun Sen. If that happens,
  prices would re test the high and also the TD
  Risk Level at 2.37

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• APF Trading is a trading advisory firm offering
  clients advice on multi-asset trading strategies,
  signals, trading systems, execution services and
  trading platforms. The firm also conducts
  research and technical analysis with a focus on
  Ichimoku Kinko Hyo and DeMark Indicators.