Dependence on the People

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Dependence on the People

• Mr. Greens American Government

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Outline of the Lecture

• Equal Power of Self Defense
• The Executive, Legislative, and Judicial
  Departments
• The Compound Republic
• Federalism
• Tyranny of the Majority
• Civil Liberties
• Dependence on the People
• Voting and Elections
• The Vice of Faction
• The Political Parties

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Reliance on the people
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Dependence on the People

• The People Are The First Bulwark in Protecting a
  Republic from Tyranny

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Churchill
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Dependence on the People

• How Effective Are the People as a Bulwark Against
  Tyranny?
• When It May Be Not Be Rational for Citizens to Be
  Informed About Issue and Candidates?
• When Election Outcomes are Decided by the Least
  Informed Votes
• Election Outcomes Turn on the Order that the
  Candidate or Issues are Presented?

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Rational Ignorance Theorem

• Divisible and Indivisible Goods

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Consumer Goods Are Divisible

• Consumers have many choices
• Consumers choose goods individually
• Consumers choose as often as they want
• Consumers must pay for each goods they use.

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Political Goods are Indivisible

• Voting Concerns Bundles of Issues
• Voters choose among sets, not individual, goods
• Voters must take all or none
• Voters only allowed to choose periodically

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Rational Ignorance Theorem

• Does It Pay To Learn the Issues and Know the
  Candidates
• When We Dont Control the Choices?
• When We Dont Know What All The Choices Are?
• When We Cant Take Back The Choice?

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John Adams
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Rational Ignorance Theorem

• Does It Pay To Learn the Issues and Know the
  Candidates
• When We Dont Control the Choices?
• When We Dont Know What All The Choices Are?
• When We Cant Take Back The Choice?
• Does this Explain Why Many Citizens Dont Vote?

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Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections
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Turnout
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Explaining Low Turnout

• Downsian Model
• Anthony Downs, An Economic Theory of Democracy

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Downsian Voting Model

• The C Variable Voting Has Costs so C 0
• Cost of Voter Registration
• Location and hours of registration office
• Time limits for registration
• Periodic purging of registration lists
• Cost of the Effort to Vote
• Weather
• Distance to Polls
• Lines at Polls
• Tuesday Voting
• Costs Imposed By the American Political System
• Number of Elections

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Downsian Voting Model

• The P Variable Voting Involves Risk, so P
• P probability that an individual voters
  choice will affect the outcome
• If P 100, my vote decides and all rational
  individuals vote
• If P 0, my vote has not and no rational
  individual will vote.
• The value of P should fall toward 0 as the number
  of voters participating rises.

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Downsian Voting Model

• Counterfactual
• Historically Turnout Is Larger in Presidential
  Election Years Than in Off Year Election Years.
• For half of Voters P C in Presidential Election
  Years When Turnout is High Half of Voters are
  Irrational.
• For 3/5 of Voters P When Turnout is Lower Voters are Irrational.
• Other Factors

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Downsian Voting Model

• The D Variable Voting Creates Pleasure D 0
• D Individuals Sense of Civic Duty
• Patriotic Duty
• Pleasure of Participation

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Downsian Voting Model

• The I Variable Voting Measures Ideological
  Intensity, I 0
• IIntensity of Loyalty, Concern, and/or Interest
  Regarding an Issue, Candidate, or Party
• About 25-30 of likely voters will always vote
  but only for the candidate on the left
• Another 25-30 of likely voters will always vote
  but only for the candidate on the right

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Downsian Voting Model
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Dependence on the People

• How Effective Are the People as a Bulwark Against
  Tyranny
• When It May Be Not Be Rational for Citizens to Be
  Informed About Issue and Candidates?
• When Election Outcomes are Decided by the Least
  Informed Votes
• Election Outcomes Turn on the Order that the
  Candidate or Issues are Presented?

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Median Voter Theory
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Normal Distribution
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Normal Distribution

• Everywhere in nature and society
• Leaves fall off trees
• Seed shells from a bird feeder
• Horses running in a race
• Wear of an old stairs
• Popcorn popping in a microwave
• Laughter at a joke inserted midway in a test

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Normal Distribution

• Is there a normal distribution of grades in a
  college class?
• Is there a normal distribution of ideology in the
  American population?

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Normal Distribution in Politics
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Median Voter

• Insight 1
• In Primary Elections, Informed Voters, Whose
  Choice Is Based Primarily on Ideology, Will
  Determine the Outcome.
• Candidates Will Run to the Extremes

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Normal Distribution in Politics
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Median Voter

• Insight 2
• In the General Election, the Uniformed Voter,
  Whose Choice Is Base on the Passion of the Moment
  or an Intuitive Feeling, Will Determine the
  Outcome.

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The Median Voter Determines Elections
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Median Voter

• Insight 2
• In the General Election, the Uniformed Voter,
  Whose Choice Is Base on the Passion of the Moment
  or an Intuitive Feeling, Will Determine the
  Outcome.
• Candidates Will Run To the Center

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1964
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Normal Distribution in Politics
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Median Voter

• Insight 2
• In the General Election, the Uniformed Voter,
  Whose Choice Is Base on the Passion of the Moment
  or an Intuitive Feeling, Will Determine the
  Outcome.
• Candidates Will Run To the Center
• By aligning their views to those the median
  voter.
• By taking stands on the issues that are vague,
  abstract, and mushy
• By presenting messages that sound those of their
  opposition..
• By seeking to present their opponents in as
  extremists (outside the mainstream).

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Dependence on the People

• How Effective Are the People as a Bulwark Against
  Tyranny
• When It May Be Not Be Rational for Citizens to Be
  Informed About Issue and Candidates?
• When Election Outcomes are Decided by the Least
  Informed Votes
• Election Outcomes Turn on the Order that the
  Candidate or Issues are Presented?

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Arrows Paradox

• The Outcome In Any Election Depends On How The
  Choices Are Ordered

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Voter Preferences
Apples vs. Wheat
Red Votes for Apples
Wheat Wins
White Votes for Wheat
Blue Votes for Wheat
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Voter Preferences
Best Choice
Middle Choice
Worst Choice
Voter
Ted Red
Apples
Wheat
Broccoli
Apples
Broccoli
Dwight White
Wheat
Broccoli
Wheat
Apples
Leu Blue
Wheat vs. Broccoli
Red Votes for Broccoli
Broccoli Wins
White votes for Wheat
Blue Votes for Broccoli
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Voter Preferences
Best Choice
Middle Choice
Worst Choice
Voter
Ted Red
Apples
Wheat
Broccoli
Apples
Broccoli
Dwight White
Wheat
Broccoli
Wheat
Apples
Leu Blue
Apples vs. Broccoli
Red Votes for Apples
Apples Wins
White votes for Apples
Blue Votes for Broccoli
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Dependence on the People

• How Effective Are the People as a Bulwark Against
  Tyranny
• When It May Be Not Be Rational for Citizens to Be
  Informed About Issue and Candidates?
• When Election Outcomes are Decided by the Least
  Informed Votes
• Election Outcomes Turn on the Order that the
  Candidate or Issues are Presented?

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The End