mib

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mib
ZTE
Alcatel-Lucent
Siemens
Ericsson
Samsung
Fujitsu
Qualcomm
Huawei
Panasonic
Motorola
Nortel
NEC
Nokia
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World Mobile Telecommunication Market Forecast
(ITU-R M.2072)

• Eduardo N. Lima
• Technological Strategies Consultant
• Nokia Siemens Networks

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Introduction

• The capabilities of IMT-2000 systems are being
  continuously enhanced in line with market and
  technology trends.
• To help meet the ever increasing demands for
  wireless communication, it is necessary to
  forecast the evolution of mobile market and
  services for the future development of IMT-2000
  and systems beyond (IMT-Advanced).
• Availability of frequency spectrum is essential
  on the provision of mobile services.

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Mobile market evolution and growth

• Report ITU-R M.2072 - World mobile
  telecommunication market forecast
• WP 8F developed market analysis and forecast of
  evolution of mobile market for 2010, 2015, and
  2020 for the mobile market.
• It has derived parameters that are essential
  inputs for spectrum estimate for the demand for
  future development of IMT-2000 and systems beyond
  (IMT-Advanced).
• Using extensive case studies from ITU Members,
  M.2072 highlights applications/services
  envisaged for the future development of IMT-2000
  and systems beyond.
• Forecasts of usage (e.g., bit/s, duration) were
  developed for various service environments and
  service categories for 2010, 2015, and 2020.

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Mobile penetration forecast method
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• Most regions have or shortly will have higher
  mobile phone penetration than wireline
  penetration

• for high teledensity countries, mainly as a
  complement

• for developing countries, as a substitute to
  fixed infrastructures.

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Mobile penetration evolution - Brazil
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Mobile penetration evolution - China
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Evolution cycle of a mobile operation
Conquest of market share
- Fidelity
- Income improvement
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Evolution cycle of a mobile operation
Conquest of market share
- Fidelity
- Income improvement
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Developing the future
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Mapping applications on service types
CBR- Constant Bit Rate
(accepts very low delay)
VBR- Variable Bit Rate
(vary in response to the throughput required for
the service)
ABR- Available Bit Rate
(no delay variation requirements )
UBR- Unspecified Bit Rate
(no traffic related service guarantees)
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(No Transcript)
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Mobile penetration evolution - China
lt 128Kbps
lt 384Kbps
lt 2Mbps
lt 10Mbps
lt 30Mbps / lt100Mbps
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Mobile market evolution and growth

• For a representative European country Total
  daily traffic of 5750 Tbyte ? Total traffic
  /subscriber/day of 495 Mbyte

5750 Tbytes
x23
250 Tbytes
2012
2020

• UMTS Forum Report 37 (2005) Magic Mobile
  Future 2010-2020
• Report ITU-R M.2072 - World mobile
  telecommunication market forecast,
• 
  (chapter 6.2.6, results from UMTS Forum)

Source
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World forecast per service category
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Conclusion
Market growth calls for More Spectrum!
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Muchas gracias!
Thank you!
eduardo.lima_at_nsn.com