Instructional Objectives

1
Instructional Objectives

• Define what limit means in sports books.
• Explain the factors that influence betting limits
  by sport.
• State the rules that govern money line movement.

• Explain the different ways baseball can be bet.
• Explain how total run lines are moved in
  baseball.
• Explain how totals are moved in football.

2
What Limit Means in Sports

• 1.Maximum amount bookmaker is willing to lose to
  a player in a single wager.
• When player laying a price, it is the maximum
  amount bookmaker is willing to lose, i.e., at
  11/10 and 5,000 limit, bettor can bet 5,500
• When player taking a price, normally means how
  much bettor can bet

3
What limit means continued

• 2. Maximum amount bookmaker will risk at a point
  or price before moving line

4
Betting Limits

• Highest limits on games with most unsophisticated
  players.
• As percentage of unsophisticated bettors
  decreases, the limit decreases.

5
Moving Money Lines

• When book risks losing limit if one side wins,
  the line is moved
• lt 40 lines are moved in increments of 1/2 size
  of line
• gt 40 lines are moved in increments of 1/4th
  size of line

6
Sample Question

• Create a 20 line with 95 probable odds
• What is theoretical house advantage over favorite
  and dog bets?
• If you knew 20,000 in total would be bet, what
  would be the ideal balance?

7
Moving Lines -190 170

• If the limit was 5,000, what might the house do
  in each of the following examples
• A B C
• Favorite 13,000 13,000 13,300
• Underdog 2,000 10,600 2,000

8
Moving Lines -190 170

• Favorite 13,000
• Underdog 2,000
• If favorite wins book pays

But underdog bettors lose 2,000 so book net loss
is 4,842
9

• Favorite 13,000
• Underdog 2,000
• If underdog wins book pays

But favorite bettors lose 13,000 so book net win
is 9,600 Since book will not lose limit of 5,000
line is not moved
10
Moving Lines -190 170

• Favorite 13,000
• Underdog 10,600
• If favorite wins book pays

But underdog bettors lose 10,600 so book net win
is 3,758
11

• Favorite 13,000
• Underdog 10,600
• If underdog wins book pays

But favorite bettors lose 13,000 so book net loss
is 5,020 Since book will lose limit of 5,000 if
underdog wins, line should be moved to discourage
underdog bettors.
12
Moving Line

• lt 40 lines are moved in increments of 1/2
  size of line
• gt 40 lines are moved in increments of 1/4th
  size of line
• -190
• 170 is a 20 line, so movement should be 10
• ANSWER
• -180 favorite side is more attractive
• 160 underdog side is less attractive

13
Betting BaseballSan Diego (Spencer) -135Chi
Cubs (Morgan) 125

• San Diego - Listed Pitchers
• serious bettors bet listed pitchers
• both pitchers must start or no bet
• listed pitchers start 98 of time
• San Diego/Morgan - Designated Pitcher
• designated pitcher must start or no bet (money
  line may change)

14
Betting BaseballSan Diego (Spencer) -135Chi
Cubs (Morgan) 125

• Action means player has a bet regardless of who
  starts (money line may change if pitcher change)
• Totals - both designated pitchers must start or
  no bet, game must go 9 full innings if on road or
  8 1/2 if home team is leading

15
Moving Totals

• Just like money lines, when books out of balance,
  bookmaker moves line
• in baseball, price is moved, not the line
• -110 ov -120 ov
• e.g., 8 to 8
• -110 un ev un

16
Betting BaseballSan Diego (Spencer) -135Chi
Cubs (Morgan) 125

• Run Lines 1½ and 2 run lines
• San Diego (Spencer) -135 -1.50 Runs _at_
  140Chi Cubs (Morgan) 125 1.50 Runs _at_
  -160
• San Diego must win by at least 2 runs or Cubs
  must lose by 1 run or less
• Run lines usually turn straight line around,
  i.e., minus becomes plus

17
Betting Football
18
Point Spread Betting

• Rams
• 42
• Raiders -3
• Point spread does for football what money line
  does for baseball
• 42 is game over under
• Bottom team is home team

19
Moving Lines

• When book risks losing limit at a given line,
  spread is moved to affect betting
• single digits spreads moved in 1/2 point
  increments
• double digits spreads moved in 1 point increments
• If limit is 5,000, anytime book risks losing
  5,000 at spread, spread is moved

20
Instructional Objectives

• Define magic numbers and explain what makes
  them magic.
• List the tools, or ways, the bookmaker protects
  himself.
• Be able to calculate parlay card adv.
• Assess casino advantage by sport.

21
Magic Numbers

• Book will accept larger wagers before moving off
  magic numbers
• NFL football 6, 7, 10 usually 150 x limit
  before moving spread
• 3 point spread 200 x limit or use money line
• College football 1 is magic number

22
Moving Totals

• Total itself is moved
• e.g., 39 to 40

23
Buying a half point

• Increase or decrease spread by ½ point
• player must lay -120 rather than -110
• Never offered on 3 point spreads, sometimes not
  offered on 7 point spreads

24
Protection

• Limits vary from sport to sport. The greatest the
  percentage of sophisticated bettors, the lower
  the limit.

25
Ranking of Sport by of Sophisticated Bettor and
Betting Limits

• Superbowl
• World Series
• NFL
• NBA Championship
• NCAA Basketball Championship

• NBA
• Hockey
• Baseball
• College Basketball

26
Protection

• circling game or total
• a circled game or bet means limit is cut in half
• reasons late season game that is meaningless,
  personnel shakeups, unusual weather forecasts,
  unusual betting, injuries

27
If situation serious enough

• Game taken off the board, accepts no more bets
• Usually totals are first to be taken off the
  board

28
Parlay Card Disadvantage

• 3 for 3 pays 6 for 1
• 4 for 4 pays 11 for 1
• 5 for 5 pays 20 for 1

29
Parlay Card Styling

• Half point cards (no possibilities of ties)
• Ties Win
• Ties Reduce to Next Number of Teams
• 4 team with 1 tie becomes 3 team card
• Ties Lose

30
Parlay Card Styling

• Parlay cards hold 17 to 30
• If ties lose, hold increases about 10 points
• If ties win, hold decreases about 10 points

31
Off the Board Parlay Cards

• Parlays can be bet through parlay cards or
• Bet off the board

32
What is Players Disadvantage on a 4 Team Parlay?
4 team parlay 2 x 2 x 2 x 2 possibilities
16 possibilities
1 winner, 15 losers
(1/16 x 10) (15/16 x -1) 31.25
33
Win Percent by Sport - 1998

• Strip Football 2.11 (38 of Total)
• Statewide Football 2.39 (33)
• Strip Basketball 3.6 (40 of Total)
• Statewide Basketball 4.1 (36)

34
Win Percent by Sport - 1998

• Strip Baseball .38 (4 of Total)
• State Baseball .81 (7.5)
• Strip Parlay Cards 25.72 (17)
• State Parlay Cards 23.37 (23.5

35
Instructional Objectives

• Describe how a teaser differentiates from a
  parlay card.
• Describe how basketball can be bet and how lines
  and totals are moved.
• Differentiate between goal lines, money lines,
  and split lines in hockey.

36
Teasers

• Player can take more points or lay fewer points
  than the line, but sacrifices odds

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Basketball

• Typically bet the same as football, i.e., point
  spread betting
• Single digit spreads moved in ½ point increments,
  double digit spreads in 1 point increments

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Hockey

• Goal Lines
• L.A. Kings 1½ -120
• N.Y. Rangers -1½ ev
• Money Lines
• L.A. Kings 120
• N.Y. Rangers -150

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Split Lines

• L.A. Kings 1½ -100
• N.Y. Rangers -2 -100
• If final was
• With Spread
• L.A. Kings 2 (3½)
• N.Y. Rangers 4 (2)
• Ranger money refunded, book keep Kings bets

46
Split Lines

• L.A. Kings 1½ -100
• N.Y. Rangers -2 -100
• Split line equivalent to 40-45 money line
• About 1 game in 5 book will win half of amount
  wagered on split lines