CLIMATE REQUIREMENTS

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CLIMATE REQUIREMENTS REDISTRIBUTION OFTOURIST
FLOWS

• Bas Amelung, ICIS, Maastricht University,
  Netherlands
• Daniel Scott, University of Waterloo, Canada

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RELEVANCE OF CLIMATE

• Push and pull factor
• German travellers weather ranks third after
  landscape and price
• Canada higher temperature increases domestic
  tourism
• Norway/UK outbound tourism responsive to weather
  in current and previous years
• Weather influences holiday satisfaction
• Climate is a resource that can be studied as such

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CLIMATE PREFERENCES DIFFERbetween types of
tourism...
Scott et al. 2007
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CLIMATE PREFERENCES DIFFER... and different
countries
Scott et al. 2007
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(RELATIVE) CLIMATE IS IMPORTANT
Source Mather, S., Viner, D. and Todd, G.
(2005). Climate and Policy Changes Their
Implications for International Tourism Flows.
in Hall, M. and Higham, J. (eds.) Tourism,
Recreation and Climate Change, Channel View
Publications Clevedon, UK, 63-85.
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IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGEtwo types of
studies for attractiveness

• Focusing on climatic resources
• Weather types
• Indices
• Focusing on demand
• Tourist demand models

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WEATHER TYPING

• Combining weather factors into weather types
• Based on ranges of values for factors
• Categories such as
• Hot and humid
• Warm, dry and sunny
• Cold and wet
• Used to describe climate resources of a
  destination
• Frequency of weather types
• Suitability for certain types of tourism
• Not applied to climate change yet

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INDICES

• Tourism climate indices building on
• More general indices for health etc (UV index)
• Thermal comfort indices PET etc.
• ...but also incorporating non-thermal factors
• Physical elements (e.g. rain)
• Aesthetic elements (sunshine)
• Indices include beach index (Becker), Hatch
  index, Tourism Climatic Index (Mieczkowski)

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INDICES TCI

• Most comprehensive scheme proposed so far
  Mieczkowskis Tourism Climatic Index (TCI, 1985)
• Temperature Humidity (optimum)
• Sunshine (more better)
• Precipitation (less better)
• Wind (situation dependent)
• Optimum conditions 100
• Developed for sightseeing
• Weighting rating adjustable

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TCI IN JUNE, JULY, AUGUST (BASE)
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TCI IN JUNE, JULY, AUGUST (2080s)
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TROPICS(RIO DE JANEIRO)
Excellent
Good
Toerisme Klimaat Index
Marginal
Maanden
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MODERATE ZONES(AMSTERDAM)
Excellent
Good
Season now
Marginal
Season around 2080?
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INTERMEDIATE(MAJORCA)
Excellent
Good
Marginal
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INDICES AND WEATHER TYPING

• Useful insights into (changes in) climatic
  suitability
• But what about real tourism visitation patterns?
• Limited validation
• More than just climate
• Actual climate vs Perception (expected vs
  experienced)
• Changes in mean vs Extreme events
• Coarse monthly resolution
• Large uncertainties
• Some can be more easily addressed than others

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TOWARDS A NEXT GENERATION CLIMATE INDEX

• Integrates all facets of atmospheric environment
  relevant to tourism-recreation
• Recognizes potential over-ride of rain wind
• Theoretically sound, incorporates recent research
  findings
• Temporal resolution must be daily to allow
  probability assessment and allow use of forecast
  data
• Easily interpreted and simple to use
• Simple to calculate, uses readily available
  climate data
• Empirically tested in a range of locales

De Freitas, Scott, McBoyle, 2004
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TOURIST DEMAND MODELS

• Demand models based on empirical data (arrivals)
• Traditional models
• Price
• Distance (transport cost)
• no climate
• Recent efforts to introduce climate
• Usually temperature
• Country-level data (little regional detail)
• Annual data (little seasonal detail)

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DEMAND MODELS RESULTS

• Relative changes in climate are important
  competitive position
• Little impact on overall volumes
• Impact on spatial distribution winners and
  losers, poleward shifts
• For most countries/destinations little impact
  relative to population and economic growth (but
  Stern)

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SEASONALITY

• Climate
• In moderate climates some seasons more suitable
  than others
• Institutions
• School holidays
• Sports events
• Religious festivities
• Important for tourism
• Occupancy/profitability
• Spatial or seasonal adaptation

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SEASONALITY

• Development of seasonality components uncertain
• Future of climatic seasonality can be explored
• Future of institutional seasonality
• Flexibility of holiday periods
• Ageing
• Crucial for economic impact of climate change
• Consistent scenarios for social change are lacking

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PRIORITIES

• Considering different tourism segments
• Understanding tourist preferences better
• Using analogues
• Integrating suitability and demand approaches
• Geographical Information Systems (GIS)
• Data of appropriate resolution
• Tourism scenarios (societal side)
• Links to other developments water, ecosystems,
  sea level

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CONCLUSIONS

• Climate is an important resource for tourism
• Climate change likely to have a significant
  impact
• But system is very complex
• Limited impact on overall volumes
• Potentially important impacts on distribution
• Poleward shifts to be expected
• Impact on tourism seasonality uncertain
• Many gaps in knowledge preferences, social
  change, influence of other (global) change issues

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Thank you for your attentionBas
AmelungMaastricht University, Netherlandsb.amelu
ng_at_icis.unimaas.nlwww.icis.unimaas.nlDaniel
ScottUniversity of Waterloo, Canada