Human Induced Climate Change

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Human Induced Climate Change

• Brief visit of the global Carbon Cycle
• IPCC (Intergovermental Panel for Climate Change)

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Global Carbon Cycle

• Ocean is the largest reservoir
• Ocean has very large exchange with atmosphere
• Missing 2 GT of C

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IPCC Website

• http//www.ipcc.ch

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Structure of IPCC 1997 - 2001
United Nations

• WMO

UNEP
COP/FCCC
Subsidiary bodies of the framework convention on
climate change
World Climate Programme IGBP Global Climate
Observing system etc
IPCC
IPCC Bureau
WGII Impacts and adaptation
WGI Science
WGIII Mitigation
Lead Authors, Contributors, Reviewers
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Climate Change 2001 The Scientific BasisWGI
contribution to IPCC Third Assessment Report

• Summary for Policymakers (SPM)
• Drafted by a team of 59
• Approved sentence by sentence
• by WGI plenary (99 Governments and 45 scientists)

14 chapters 881 pages 120 Lead Authors 515
Contributing Authors 4621 References quoted
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(No Transcript)
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IPCC Synthesis ReportPart I

• Overview
• How to address the issue of dangerous
  anthropogenic perturbation to the climate system
• The relationship between climate change and
  development, equity and sustainability
• Robert Watson

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Mother Earth -- Our Home It is has water, oxygen
and a hospitable climate
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World Population 6,056,528,577
The Challenge Sustainable Management of an
Ever-Changing Planet
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The Challenge Sustainable Energy
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The Challenge Food Security
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• Food production needs to double to meet the needs
  of an additional 3 billion people in the next 30
  years

Climate change is projected to decrease
agricultural productivity in the tropics and
sub-tropics for almost any amount of warming
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The Challenge Sustainable Forestry
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• Wood fuel is the only source of fuel for one
  third of the worlds population

Wood demand will double in next 50 years
Climate change is projected to increase forest
productivity, but forest management will become
more difficult, due to an increase in pests and
fires
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The Challenge Water Security
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Water Services
Climate change is projected to decrease water
availability in many arid- and semi-arid regions
Population facing water scarcity will more than
double over the next 30 years

• One third of the worlds population is now
  subject to water scarcity

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The Challenge Sustainable Fisheries
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The Challenge Sustainable use conservation of
biodiversity
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Estimated 10-15 of the worlds species could
become extinct over the next 30 years

• Biodiversity underlies all ecological goods and
  services

Climate change will exacerbate the loss of
biodiversity
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Agricultural Lands
Coastal Zones
Forest Lands
Freshwater Systems
Arid Lands Grasslands
Food and Fiber Production Provision of Clean and
Sufficient Water Maintenance of
Biodiversity Maintenance of Human Health Storage
and cycling of Carbon, Nitrogen, Phosphorus
Climate change will affect the ability of
ecological systems to provide a range of
essential ecological goods and services
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The Challenge Sustainable Management of an
Ever-Changing Planet
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Key Findings

• Climate change is not just an environmental
  issue, but a development issue
• Global and regional changes have been observed in
  the chemical composition of the atmosphere,
  earth's surface temperature, precipitation,
  extreme climatic events, sea level
• These have caused changes in biological, physical
  and socio-economic systems
• Most of the observed warming of the past 50 years
  is attributable to human activities
• Questions 1 2

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Key Findings

• Future changes in atmospheric composition and
  climate are inevitable with increases in
  temperature and some extreme events, and regional
  increases and decreases in precipitation, leading
  to an increased risks of floods and droughts
• There are both beneficial and adverse effects of
  climate change, but the larger the changes and
  rate of change in climate, the more the adverse
  effects predominate with developing countries
  being the most vulnerable
• Question 3

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Key Findings

• Adaptation has the potential to reduce adverse
  effects of climate change, but will not prevent
  all damages
• Inertia is a widespread characteristic of the
  interacting climate, ecological and
  socio-economic systems which means that the
  impacts may not be observed for decades to
  centuries and mal-adaptations may be implemented
• Questions 3 5

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Key Findings

• Greenhouse gas emissions in the 21st century can
  set in motion large-scale, high-impact,
  non-linear, and potentially abrupt changes in
  physical and biological systems over the coming
  decades to millennia
• Sustained warming of a few oC over millennia is
  projected to lead to an increase in sea level of
  several meters due to loss of Greenland and
  Antarctic Ice
• Question 4

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Key Findings

• Stabilization of the atmospheric concentration of
  CO2 will require global emissions to decline to
  only a small fraction of current emissions --
  even after stabilization of CO2 concentrations,
  sea level will continue to rise for millennia
• Stabilization of carbon dioxide at 450ppm and
  1000ppm would result in an equilibrium
  temperature rise of 0.9 to 2.5oC and 2.9 to 7.5oC
  above 1990 levels, respectively. Increases in
  non-CO2 concentrations would increase these
  estimates
• The lower the level of stabilization of
  greenhouse gas concentrations the greater the
  benefits in terms of avoided damages
• Question 6

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Key Findings

• There are many opportunities, including
  technological options, to reduce near-term
  emissions, but barriers to their deployment
  exist, and cost estimates vary greatly
• There are substantial opportunities for lowering
  mitigation costs, e.g. by using all greenhouse
  gases, the Kyoto trading mechanisms and sinks
• On the other hand, costs are under-estimated
  because models assume emissions trading without
  transaction costs and that economies have already
  begun to adjust to meet Kyoto targets
• Question 7

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Key Findings

• Emissions constraints on Annex I countries have
  well-established spill-over effects on
  non-Annex I countries
• Technology development and diffusion are
  important components of cost-effective
  stabilization
• The pathway to stabilization and the
  stabilization level itself are key determinants
  of mitigation costs
• Question 7

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Key Findings

• Local, regional and global environmental issues
  are inextricably linked and affect sustainable
  development climate change, loss of
  biodiversity, stratospheric ozone depletion,
  desertification, freshwater availability and air
  quality are all inter-linked
• The primary factors underlying most environmental
  and socio-economic issues are similar, i.e.,
  economic growth, broad technological changes,
  life-style patterns and demographic shifts
• Question 8

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Key Findings

• There are synergistic opportunities to
  simultaneously address these issues that enhance
  benefits, reduce costs and more sustainably meet
  human needs
• The capacity of a country to adapt or mitigate
  can be enhanced when climate policies are
  integrated into national development policies
  economic, social and environmental
• Question 8

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What is Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with
the Climate System?

• Deciding what constitutes dangerous
  anthropogenic interference to the climate system
  is a value judgment determined through
  socio-political processes informed by scientific,
  technical and socio-economic information
• The basis for determining what constitutes
  dangerous anthropogenic interference varies by
  region and sector and depends upon
• the impacts of climate change, which depends on
  the rate and magnitude of climate change, and
• adaptive and mitigative capacity

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What is Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with
the Climate System.

• Climate change decision-making is a sequential
  process under general uncertainty
• Climate change is part of the larger challenge of
  sustainable development

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Climate Change An integrated framework
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Change Presentation..
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IPCC Synthesis ReportPart IV

• Costs of mitigation measures
• Jayant Sathaye

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Technologies and policies exist to reduce
short-term (2010-2020) GHG emissions

• Significant technical progress has been made in
  the last 5 years and at a faster rate than
  expected (wind turbines, elimination of
  industrial by-products, hybrid engine cars, fuel
  cell technology, underground carbon dioxide
  storage)

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Cost of new technologies have declined
steeply, but costs of conventional technologies
have also declined at a slower rate
10
1
Production costs (EURO1990/kWh)
0.1
0.01
100
10000
1000000
Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW)
Electric technologies, EU 1980-1995, Source IEA
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Mitigation potential -- 2020 (Cost Range
Negative to 100/t C)
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Realizing this potential requires overcoming many
barriers

• Barriers add to the cost of implementation, and
  reduce the realizable potential
• Removal of barriers during capital stock turnover
  and periods of rapid social change can minimize
  disruption and mitigation costs

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The cost of compliance increases with lower
stabilization levels
Trillions of US
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Projected mitigation costs are sensitive to the
assumed emissions baseline
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IPCC Synthesis ReportPart V

• Summary and relationship to other environmental
  issues
• Robert Watson

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Agricultural practices are affecting the
environment and environmental degradation
threatens food availability
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Climate change and other environmental issues are
inter-linked
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Underlying causes of change

• The primary factors underlying environmental
  degradation include economic growth, broad
  technological changes, demographic shifts and
  governance structures. These can give rise to
• Increased demand for natural resources and energy
  
• Market imperfections, e.g., subsidies that lead
  to the inefficient use of resources and act as a
  barrier to the market penetration of climate
  sound technologies the lack of recognition of
  the true value of natural resources failure to
  appropriate the global values of natural
  resources to the local level and the failure to
  internalize the social costs of environmental
  degradation into the market price of a resource
• Limited availability and transfer of technology,
  inefficient use of technologies, and inadequate
  investment in research and development for the
  technologies of the future
• Failure to manage adequately the use of natural
  resources and energy

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Climate Change is an Integral Element of
Sustainable Development
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The Challenge Sustainable Management of an
Ever-Changing Planet