P1247676902RGoqL

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Physical Processes, Precipitation Type, and
Numerical Weather Prediction
NWS/NCSU CSTAR Update
Raleigh, NC 6 December 2002
Gary M. Lackmann Dept. of Marine, Earth,
Atmospheric Sciences North Carolina State
University
Apex, NC, 4 December 2002
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Objectives

• 1.) Review physical processes accompanying winter
  precipitation events, using 4-5 December event
• 2.) Consider model representation of these
  processes
• 3.) Update you on status of model improvements
• 4.) Compare and contrast a major event (December
  2002) to a non-event (February 2001) if time

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Competing Physical Processes...
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1.) Thermal advection - Strong warm advection
above CAD cold dome
850-mb height, T, wind 5/00
- Cold, dry advection within cold dome
(ageostrophic)
SLP, observations 12Z/4
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2.) Adiabatic processes Expansional cooling -
Cooling due to expansion is strongest in stable
ascent region (help from melting!) - Upslope
cooling due to easterly flow component near
surface
296 K isentropic winds, pressure
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3.) Upward heat flux from ground (Tsoil 41-50?F)
EDAS soil temperature, 010 cm layer, C 00 UTC 4
December 2002
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4.) Latent heat effects - Condensation/depositio
n aloft in crystal/cloud growth region -
Evaporation/sublimation at event onset as
precip falls into dry air - Melting aloft
once T gt 0?C set up stable isothermal
layer - Melting at surface early in event,
with snow, sleet - Freezing aloft during
sleet, early - Freezing at surface (once
FZRA falling)
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4.) Latent Heat FZRA Thermodynamics
snow
rain
Unlike in melting snow case, here surface-based
mixing is promoted
Freezing rain
0?C
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FZRA Thermodynamics

• Latent heat released by FZRA shared between
  ground and atmosphere
• Partition is a function of land use, other
  factors
• Coniferous forest vs. bare soil
• Snow cover vs. bare ground
• Soil heat flux considerations
• Latent warming of surface also communicated to
  atmosphere via radiation/conduction
• FA Fraction of latent heat ultimately warming
  atmosphere
• Current case FA near 1, all ice on raised
  surfaces

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FZRA Thermodynamics

• In the absence of other cooling mechanisms,
  assuming sufficient precipitation, ice buildup
  can be estimated using equation (5) in October
  WAF article
• Icing (mm) 0.05 dT(C) dP(mb) / FA
• dT 4C (25F)
• dP 75 mb
• FA 1 (soil warm, all heat on raised surfaces)
• This formula does not account for cold advection,
  but still
• Icing (mm) 15 mm 0.6 inches!

dT freezing point depression dP depth of
sub-freezing layer FA fraction of heat to
atmosphere
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Slide from previous co-lab presentations

• Limiting Processes for Freezing Rain
• 1.) Downward IR from warm clouds (only if PBL
  clear)
• 2.) Warm rain drops (sensible heat transfer)
• 3.) Warm-air advection
• 4.) Upward heat flux from a warm ground
• 5.) Freezing!!! (Latent heat release can raise T
  to 0C / 32F)
• Freezing rain can be a self-limiting process
  (Stewart, 1985)
• Major e.g, 12-25 mm (0.5 - 1) icing generally
  requires
• ? influx of colder or drier air, or
• ? extremely cold and/or dry initial low-level
  air, or
• ? very cold ground with limited snow cover, or
• ? some other local cooling mechanism (e.g.,
  upslope flow)

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5.) Cloud/Radiation - Radiational cooling under
clear sky prior to event (cooling) - Downward IR
from warm cloud base prior to event (warming)
6.) Sensible heat transport from falling rain
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Model Representation Melting Freezing Aloft

• GFS Eta account for cooling due to melting
  aloft
• accuracy is tied to QPF accuracy
• As of 27 November 2001, NCEP Eta accounts for
  heat released by freezing of rain aloft
  (sleet), GFS does not
• GFS Zhao and Carr scheme neglects freezing
  aloft grid-scale vertical motion too weak to
  advect falling rain above freezing level
• Result cold bias in layer where freezing occurs
  (GFS)

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Freezing Rain Eta Representation

• Eta land-surface model (LSM) computes surface
  energy balance, including latent heating, etc.
• LSM determines precipitation type from air
  temperature at lowest model level Tair lt 0C
  snow assumed, Tair gt 0C, rain
• Consider situation where Tground -3C,
  T2-meters -2C, and heavy, freezing rain is
  falling
• Will LSM account for release of latent heat from
  freezing rain?

NO, LSM assumes snow, does not account for latent
heat release COLD BIAS
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Eta 24-h fcst sounding (blue) versus 12Z/05 GSO
raob (red/green)
Eta 30-h fcst sounding (blue) versus 06Z/05 GSO
raob (red/green)
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Eta 18-h 2-m Temp versus observations at 06 Z 12/5
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Model Representation FZRA

• Eta assumes snow in FZRA situations, based on
  lowest model air temperature. Implications?
• In addition to latent heat issues, Eta develops a
  spurious snow cover, which could exacerbated cold
  bias via
• - albedo alterations
• - insulation of upward soil heat flux
• - latent heat absorption via melting (later)
• - adverse impact on subsequent forecast cycles?
• (analysis problems)
• Until problem corrected, Eta model will exhibit
  tendency to unrealistically prolong some FZRA
  events

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Eta 24-h forecast 12 hour accumulated snow
(inches)
Eta had 12 accumulated snow for 12-h periond
ending 12Z 12/5/02
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Implications Model Upgrade

• Model partial thickness forecasts quite good for
  this case
• Implications Partial thickness nomogram appears
  to be more forgiving of errors in model
  forecast soundings
• Clearly, Eta still has near-surface cold bias
  issue
• Gary,
• At the moment, in our latest Noah land-surface
  model (LSM) testing, we pass the fraction of
  frozen precip (FFROZP) from the Eta microphysics
  to the Noah LSM, but currently only make a binary
  choice on precip type -- snow/frozen precip (for
  FFROZPgt0.5), or non-frozen precip (FFROZPlt0.5).
  In the future we'll do something with the actual
  fractions. But we've now gone beyond the
  poor-man criteria (temperature at 1st Eta model
  atmos level).
• I can talk more next week (Thu or Fri might be
  best) if you remind me. Thanks.
• Mike Ek

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Spotter icing reports, 4-5 December 2002

• RDU maximum 0?C (32 ?F),
• RDU precipitation 1.59 (39 mm)
• Only 6-12 mm (1/4-1/2) ice in Wake Co.
• Why not more???

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Thoughts...

• Overall, very well forecasted event!
• Mechanisms in place to offset/compensate latent
  heat release
• (extremely cold/dry initial air, and cold
  advection)
• Surprise 1/4 ice caused so many limbs to come
  down!
• see photos Leaves versus no leaves, no recent
  weedout
• Surprise So much accretion occurred with surface
  temperatures or gt 30?F
• Warm ground, no freezing (no latent heat release)
  there all ice confined to raised surfaces

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Leaves versus no leaves
6 December 2002, NCSU Centennial Campus
No leaves, no damage...
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Case 2 12 February 2001
Cold-air damming east of Appalachians with warm
advection and synoptic-scale ascent. Eta
analysis valid 12 UTC 12 Feb. 2001 500-hPa
geopotential height (dashed), SLP (solid)
H
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12 February 2001
Operational 30-h Eta 2-m temperature (dashed
shaded below 0C) and precipitation forecast
(inches), valid 18 UTC 12 Feb. 2001
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Very Little Ice What Happened?
Observed frozen precip.
Observed max temp (F)
Observed GSO sounding (blue) and Eta forecast
sounding (red/green) for 12 UTC 12 Feb. 2001
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Very Little Ice How is this case different from
4-5 December 2002?
1.) Cold air much more firmly entrenched in 2002
case 2.) Temperatures/dew points at onset MUCH
lower for 2002 event 3.) QPF accurate for 2002
event, much more precipitation (QPF bust from
models in Feb 2001 event) 4.) Continuing source
of cold advection during 2002 event, less so in
Feb 2001 case 5.) Relatively clear sky previous
night in 2002 relative to 2001 case (overcast all
night)
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Summary

• Eta Model represents freezing melting aloft,
  accuracy tied to QPF
• For the case of ice pellets (sleet) GFS cold
  bias in freezing layer
• For the case of freezing rain Usually
  near-surface cold bias (for all models) due to
• -misrepresentation of latent heat
• -possible generation of spurious snowpack
• Check for cooling mechanisms to compensate latent
  heat release
• Check soil temperature, consider surface character

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Thanks to

• The NOAA CSTAR program
• Garry Toth, Michael Ek, Brad Ferrier, Bill Bua,
  Peter Caplan
• NWSFO RAH, GSP (Phil Badgett, Jonathan Blaes,
  Kermit Keeter, Larry Lee, Rod Gonski, Gail
  Hartfield, and others)
• Also Mike Brennan, Al Riordan (NCSU), Greg
  Fishel (WRAL)
• All of you for taking the time to tune in!

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