American Statistical Association (ASA) Committee on Energy Statistics

1
American Statistical Association (ASA)
Committee on Energy Statistics

• Guy F. Caruso, Administrator
• Energy Information Administration (EIA)
• Washington, DC
• April 28, 2005

2
EIA Activities

• Increased interest in forecasts and in weekly
  data due to energy price increases
• Release of Summer Fuels Outlook for 2005
• Revisions in natural gas storage data
• EIAs monthly survey of natural gas production
  now live
• External Study Team
• New developments in the implementation of the
  Strategic Plan
• EIAs FY 2006 Budget

3
Responding to Congress

• October 2004 -- Winter Fuels Outlook
• Presented before the Senate Subcommittee on
  Competition, Foreign Commerce, and
  Infrastructure, Committee on Commerce, Science
  and Transportation
• January and February 2005
• Provided briefings and testimony on the Annual
  Energy Outlook, natural gas storage issues, and
  refinery constraints

4
Responding to Congress Service Reports

• February 2005
• Completed an analysis of alternative mercury
  control strategies for Senators Inhofe and
  Voinovich
• April 2005
• Completed an analysis of the National Commission
  on Energy Policy recommendations and energy
  efficiency strategies for Senator Bingaman

5
Summer Fuels Outlook for 2005

• Crude prices (WTI) are expected to remain above
  50 per barrel for the rest of 2005 and 2006
• Gasoline prices are expected to average 2.28
  over this summer
• Natural gas spot prices are expected to average
  6.95 per mcf this year and 6.90 in 2006

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Impact on EIAs Work

• High energy prices have
• Impacted the frequency of requests for forecasted
  data
• Increased the number of testimonies before
  Congress
• Gained widespread attention in the press
• Increased interest from financial markets that
  rely on storage and price data

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Challenges in EIAs Natural Gas Storage Data

• EIA has a new policy regarding the unscheduled
  release of revisions to data in the Natural Gas
  Storage Data Report
• Policy addresses conditions for EIA to
  disseminate unscheduled releases of revised data

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Natural Gas Production Survey

• EIA has begun collecting data using Form EIA-914,
  Monthly Natural Gas Production Report.
• We will be asking the committee for help in
  developing criteria for deciding when to publish
  data.

9
External Study Team

• Team will be comprised of five high-level energy
  experts who will provide consensus
  recommendations to EIA concerning whether EIA is
  doing the right things.
• We will be asking you for further advice on
  Friday.

10
EIAs Strategic Plan New Developments

• EIA has added Goal 4 to its Strategic Plan
• EIA will become more efficient in conducting its
  core business of information collection,
  processing and dissemination

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Goal 4 Teams

• Survey Frames
• Internet Data Collection
• Disclosure Limitation
• Database Commonality

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EIAs FY 2006 Budget Request

• EIA is requesting 85.9M for FY 2006
• 2.5 increase from FY 2005
• Challenges include plans to
• Fund the quadrennial energy consumption surveys
• Improve petroleum and natural gas data security,
  reliability and quality
• Implement the enhanced Voluntary Reporting of
  Greenhouse Gases to support the Presidents
  Climate Change Initiative
• Cover increased FY 2006 operating costs

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Summary and Meeting Agenda

• We will solicit your comments on
• Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) models
• External Study Team
• Natural Gas Production Survey
• EIA Website
• Other statistical and modeling questions related
  to EIA survey data

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