School comes first then comes marriage then comes baby:

1
School comes first then comes marriage then comes
baby Racial and ethnic variations in the path to
first birth in the United States
Li Zhu and Jennifer Glick Center for Population
Dynamics, School of Social and Family Dynamics,
Arizona State University
Figure 1a

• Research Questions
• Does education have the same delaying effect on
  the timing of first birth among young adults from
  different racial/ethnic groups?
• Does the timing of marriage mediate the
  relationship between education and timing of
  first birth across these racial/ethnic groups?
• Previous Research
• Schooling and employment experiences are very
  important in the timing and sequencing of family
  formation behaviors.
• Family formation varies significantly across
  racial/ethnic groups.
• Asians, both girls and boys, have particular low
  rates of first birth before high school
  graduation and particular low non-marital
  fertility, compared to other racial/ethnic
  groups.
• Hypotheses
• Education will have a differential effect on the
  timing of first birth for youths across
  racial/ethnic groups.
• The effect of education on the timing of first
  birth will vary by the type of schooling under
  consideration. High school completion will be
  associated with a greater probability of first
  birth and college completion will be associated
  with lower probability of first birth
• Marriage timing will explain some of the
  racial/ethnic differences in birth timing
• Racial groups have different normative paths from
  school/marriage to birth

• Data and Methods
• NELS 88 -00 (National Education Longitudinal
  Study) Longitudinal Data ( 5 Waves, 12 years
  span age 14 followed to age 26)
• Sample size N 10,240
• (Asian 726 Hispanic 1330 Black 952 White
  7232)
• DiscreteTime Event History Model
• Key measures
• Dependent variable Timing of first birth
• (1 had a first birth and 0 no first
  birth/censored)
• Main independent variables
• H.S graduation Timing of high school graduation.
  Will indicate when respondent graduated.
• (1 graduated from H.S. and 0 no
  graduation/censored)
• College graduation Timing of Bachelor degree.
  (1received Bachelor degree and 0 have no
  bachelor degree/censored)
• Martial status Timing of Marriage.
• (1 married and 0 not married/censored)
• Control variables

Figure 3
Proportion Married by Race and Educational
Attainment
Marital Birth Probability by Race and Age for
Bachelor Holders
A stronger delaying effect of college completion
for blacks
Female
Figure 2 Kaplan Meier Estimator of first birth
survival function for Asians and Blacks by
Marital Status
A weaker effect on Asians
Non-married Asians
Figure 1b
Married Asians
Proportion with Births by Race and Educational
Attainment
Non married blacks
Married blacks
Male
Data Source NELS 88 -00

• Conclusions and Discussions
• It is not only educational attainment or marital
  status per se that influence the timing of the
  first birth. The timing and sequence of these
  events explain much of the differences among
  young adults from different racial/ethnic groups.
  This effect is most salient for Asian young
  adults.
• Low marriage rates and high educational
  attainment explain much of the delay in first
  birth among Asians compared to other racial
  groups.
• The probability of non-marital births is
  especially high among blacks but for those who
  complete college, probabilities of first birth
  decrease more than other groups.
• The current research only captures the early life
  course for young adults, many of the respondent
  in this sample have not given birth yet during
  the observation period so we cannot distinguish
  the extent to which these are delays or family
  formation forgone.

There is considerable racial/ethnic variation in
the age at family formation. Blacks are younger
at first birth and older at marriage (i.e. high
nonmarital fertility) while Asians have the
highest ages of both events (i.e. largest delays
in family formation)
Male
Female