Major Corrections in the US Stockmarket DJIA since 1920

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Major Corrections in the US Stockmarket (DJIA)
since 1920
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Major US Bear Markets since 1920
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Major US Bull Markets since 1920
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DJIA
US Treasuries
WHAT CORRELATION CAN YOU SEE??? WHAT CAN YOU
CONCLUDE???
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Break of Support Indicates Treasuries to go lower
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Post War Boom
1929 Crash
1970s Bear Mkt
DOW JONES (1/20/20 to 06/26/80) Captures 3 Cycles
1929 Crash, Post War Boom and 1970s Bear
Market
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What we know so far

• Bull markets last longer than bear markets
• Price appreciation on bull markets is higher than
  the correction on bear markets even in the worst
  case (i.e. 1929 Crash)
• History shows that to be classified as a crash
  the market has to drop by more than 20...as of
  this time the market has dropped 10.93 from the
  highs of 14,000.

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Eliminating the Crest of Tidal Wave Scenario

• They say either DOW goes to
• 10,000 (Scenario 1) ---40 Decline
• Comparable to Black Monday of 1987 and 1974 Crash
  ( Major Gas shortage and Highest Unemployment in
  history)
• 7,000 (Scenario 2) ---- 50 Decline
• Dust Bowl Famine 1937 and World Depression
• DOES THIS ARGUMENT STAND AT PRESENT WORLD
  CONDITIONS???

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My View -----US to remain range bound with a
good possibility of breaking new highs if certain
resistance levels are broken. -----But
current decline (10.93) classifies this as a
bullish correction.

• Why I remain more positive than the extreme
  bears???
• The run up from the bottom of the Millenium bear
  market is anything BUT a corrective up move as
  what they are saying. Its a clear impulsive
  upmove.
• As of today, the current market decline cannot
  be classified as a crash but just a correction.
• The near term charts indicates a break of the SHS
  formation and an upward break of the down trend
  line from the highs coupled with a potential
  inverted head and shoulders formation.
• Historical correlation between interest rates and
  stock prices indicate that given the break of the
  long term uptrend of US Treasuries interest
  rates are poised to go down and should be good
  for equities.
• If we are to say that the 14,000 level is the all
  time high, then it would remain in history as
  the SHORTEST bull phase in both time and price
  appreciation (up only by 94 or so). THAT has
  not been the case in history as typical fifth
  waves would be a prolonged period in both price
  and time.