Laws of Cyberspace

1
Laws of Cyberspace

• Jim GrayMicrosoft Research
• with help from Gordon Bell, Nathan Myrvold
• and laws by Bell, Moore, Gates, Joy, Gilder,
  Grove, Grosch, Metcalf, Mryvold,
• Talk presented 10/9/98 at International
  University, Bruchsal Germany
• http//research.Microsoft.com/Gray/talks/Laws_of_
  Cyberspace.ppt

2
Computer Industry Laws (rules of thumb)

• Metcalfs law
• Moores First Law
• Bells Computer Classes (7 price tiers)
• Bells Platform Evolution
• Bells Platform Economics
• Bills Law
• Software Economics
• Nathans 4 Laws of Software
• Gilders Law of the Telcosom.
• Groves law (1 and 2)
• Moores second law
• Is Info-Demand Infinite?
• The Death of Groschs Law

3
1. We get more
4
2. New overtakes old
5
3. Things get cheaper
6
4. Newer cheaper wins?
7
Metcalfs LawNetwork Utility Users2

• How many connections can it make?
• 1 user no utility
• 1K users a few contacts
• 1M users many on net
• 1B users everyone on net
• That is why the Internet is so hot
• Exponential benefit

8
Moores First Law

• XXX doubles every 18 months 60 increase per year
• Micro Processor speeds
• chip density
• Magnetic disk density
• Communications bandwidthWAN bandwidth
  approaching LANs
• Exponential Growth
• The past does not matter
• 10x here, 10x there, soon you're talking REAL
  change.
• PC costs decline faster than any other platform
• Volume learning curves
• PCs will be the building bricks of all future
  systems

9
Bumps in the Moores Law Road

• DRAM
• 1988 US Anti-Dumping rules
• 1993-1995 ?? price flat
• Magnetic Disk
• 1965-1989 10x/decade
• 1989-1996 4x/3year! 100X/decade

/MB of DISK
10,000
100
1
.01
1970
1980
1990
2000
10
National Semiconductor Technology Roadmap (size)
11
National Storage Technology (disks) Roadmap
(size, density, speed)
100,000
3.5" Cap. (MBytes)
Density (Kbpsi)
1.3" Cap. (MBytes)
10,000
1,000
100
Data Rate (MBps)
10
1
1995
2000
2005
12
Gordon Bells 1975 VAX planning model... He
didnt believe it!
System Price 5 x 3 x .04 x memory size/ 1.26
(t-1972) K 5x Memory is 20 of cost
3xDEC markup .04x per byte He didnt
believe The projection 500 machine He
couldnt comprehend implications Costs declined
gt 20 Single user systems didnt come down as
fast, unless you consider PDAs VAX ran out of
address bits!
13
Gordon Bells Seven Price Tiers

• 10 wrist watch computers
• 100 pocket/ palm computers
• 1,000 portable computers
• 10,000 personal computers (desktop)
• 100,000 departmental computers
  (closet)
• 1,000,000 site computers (glass house)
• 10,000,000 regional computers (glass
  castle)

SuperServer Costs more than 100,000
Mainframe Costs more than 1M Must be an
array of processors, disks, tapes comm
ports
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Bells Evolution of Computer Classes
Technology enable two evolutionary paths 1.
constant performance, decreasing cost 2.
constant price, increasing performance
1.26 2x/3 yrs -- 10x/decade 1/1.26 .8 1.6
4x/3 yrs --100x/decade 1/1.6 .62
15
Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace and
covered by a hierarchy of computers!
Body
Continent
Region/ Intranet
Cars phys. nets
Home buildings
Campus
World
Fractal Cyberspace a network of networks of
platforms
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Many little beat few big
1 million
100 K
10 K
Pico Processor
Micro
Nano
10 pico-second ram
1 MB
Mini
Mainframe
10
0

MB
1
0 GB
1
TB
1
00 TB
1.8"
2.5"
3.5"
5.25"
1 M SPEC marks, 1TFLOP 106 clocks to bulk
ram Event-horizon on chip VM reincarnated Multi
-program cache, On-Chip SMP
9"
14"

• Smoking, hairy golf ball
• How to connect the many little parts?
• How to program the many little parts?
• Fault tolerance?

17
Gordon Bells Platform Economics

• Traditional computers Custom or
  Semi-Custom high-tech and high-touch
• New computers high-tech and no-touch

18
Software Economics Bills Law

• Bill Joys law (Sun) Dont write software for
  less than 100,000 platforms. _at_10M engineering
  expense, 1,000 price
• Bill Gates lawDont write software for less
  than 1,000,000 platforms. _at_10M engineering
  expense, 100 price
• Examples
• UNIX vs NT 3,500 vs 500
• Oracle vs SQL-Server 100,000 vs 6,000
• No Spreadsheet or Presentation pack on
  UNIX/VMS/...
• Commoditization of base Software Hardware

19
Software Economics

• An engineer costs about 150 k/year
• RD gets 515 of budget
• Need 3M1M revenue per engineer

20
Grove's LawThe New Computer Industry

• Horizontal integration is new structure
• Each layer picks best from lower layer.
• Desktop (C/S) market
• 1991 50
• 1995 75

21
Bytes/ DRAM
Doubling time 964 days Growth rate 30 per year
22
Nathans 1st Law of Software
Software is a gas!
It expands to fit the container it is in!
23
Windows NT Lines of Code
100,000,000
Doubling time 866 days Growth rate 33.9 per year
10,000,000
1,000,000
7/92
2/93
8/93
3/94
10/94
4/95
11/95
6/96
12/96
6/97
24
Browser Code Growth (MB vs time)
100
Doubling time 216 days Growth rate 221 per year
10
1
2/95
5/95
8/95
11/95
3/96
6/96
9/96
12/96
3/97
6/97
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Nathans 2nd Law of Software
Software grows until it becomes limited by
Moores Law

• Initial growth is rapid - like gas expanding
  (like browser)
• Eventually, limited by hardware (like NT)
• Bring any processor to its knees, just before the
  new model is out

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Nathans 3rd Law of Software
Software growth makes Moores Law possible

• Thats why people buy new hardware - economic
  motivator
• Thats why chips get faster at same price,
  instead of cheaper
• Will continue as long as there is opportunity for
  new software

27
Nathans 4th Law of Software
Software is only limited by human ambition
expectation

• Its impossible to have enough
• New algorithms
• New applications and new users
• New notions of what is cool

28
The Software Crisis!

• Von Neumann had trouble
• Software is always in crisis
• Is there some limit to complexity?
• Will software ever grow up?
• Will the crisis ever end?

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The Perpetual Crisis

• Panacea solutions
• High level languages
• Object oriented programming
• Component software, ...
• Benefits absorbed by rising expectations
• Software will never be easy
• Somebody will push the boundary

30
The Ultimate Computer

• Nathans Prognosis
• Learning more about the brain every day
• AI will happen
• Computers with same power in 20 to 30 years
• Brain has no Moores Law

31
Gilders Telecosom Law 3x bandwidth/year for 25
more years

• Today
• 10 Gbps per channel
• 4 channels per fiber 40 Gbps
• 32 fibers/bundle 1.2 Tbps/bundle
• In lab 3 Tbps/fiber (400 x WDM)
• In theory 25 Tbps per fiber
• 1 Tbps USA 1996 WAN bisection bandwidth

1 fiber 25 Tbps
32
God Loves Standards Thats why he made so many
of them.
1985
X/Open
1990
1995
Open Group
COM
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Moores Second Law

• The Cost of Fab Lines Doubles Every Generation
  (3 years)
• Money Limithard to imagine 10 B line 20 B
  line 40 B line
• Physical limit
• Quantum Effects at 0.25 micron now 0.05 micron
  seems hard 12 years, 3 generations
• Lithograph need Xray below 0.13 micron

34
Constant Dollars vs Constant Work

• Constant Work
• One SuperServer can do all the worlds
  computations.
• Constant Dollars
• The world spends 10 on information processing
• Computers are moving from 5 penetration to 50
• 300 B to 3T
• We have the patent on the byte and algorithm

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Computer Industry Laws (rules of thumb)

• Metcalfs law
• Moores First Law
• Bells Computer Classes (7 price tiers)
• Bells Platform Evolution
• Bells Platform Economics
• Bills Law
• Software Economics
• Nathans 4 Laws of Software
• Gilders Law of the Telcosom.
• Groves law (1 and 2)
• Moores second law
• Is Info-Demand Infinite?
• The Death of Groschs Law

36
Vannevar Bush c1945

• There will always be plenty of things to compute
  ... With millions of people doing complicated
  things.
• memex stores all his books, records, and
  communications, and ... can be consulted with
  speed and flexibility
• Matchbook sized, .05 encyclopedia
• Speech to text
• Head mounted camera, dry photography

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Kinds Of Information Processing
Point-to-Point
Broadcast
lecture concert
conversation money
Net work
Immediate
book newspaper
mail
Time Shifted
Data Base
Its ALL going electronic Immediate is being
stored for analysis (so ALL database) Analysis
Automatic Processing are being added
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Why Put Everything in Cyberspace?
Point-to-Point OR Broadcast
Low rent min /byte Shrinks time now or
later Shrinks space here or there Automate
processing knowbots
Network
Immediate OR Time Delayed
Locate Process Analyze Summarize
Data Base
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Databases Information At Your Fingertips
Information NetworkKnowledge Navigator

• All information will be in an online database
  (somewhere)
• You might record everything you
• read 10MB/day, 400 GB/lifetime (8 tapes today)
• hear 400MB/day, 16 TB/lifetime (3 tapes/year
  today)
• see 1MB/s, 40GB/day, 1.6 PB/lifetime (maybe
  someday)
• Data storage, organization, and analysis is a
  challenge.
• That is what databases are about
• DBs do a good job on records
• Now working on text, spatial, image, and sound.
• This needs lots of PROCESSING too.

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Database Store ALL Data Types

• The Old World
• Millions of objects
• 100-byte objects

• The New World
• Billions of objects
• Big objects (1MB)
• Objects have behavior (methods)

People
Name
Address
David
NY
Mike
Berk
Paperless office Library of congress online All
information online entertainment
publishing business WWW Internet Informatio
n Network, Knowledge Navigator, Information at
your fingertips
Won
Austin
People
Name
Address
Papers
Picture
Voice
NY
David
Mike
Berk
Won
Austin
41
Magnetic Storage Cheaper than Paper

• File Cabinet cabinet (4 drawer) 250 paper
  (24,000 sheets) 250 space (2x3 _at_
  10/ft2) 180 total 700 3 /sheet
• Disk disk (4 GB )
  800 ASCII 2 m pages 0.04 /sheet
  (80x cheaper)
• Image 200 k pages 0.4 /sheet (8x
  cheaper)
• Store everything on disk

42
Crossing the Chasm
43
Billions of Clients

• Every device will be intelligent
• Doors, rooms, cars, ...
• Computing will be ubiquitous

44
Billions of Clients Need Millions of Servers
All clients are networked to servers may be
nomadic or on-demand Fast clients want faster
servers Servers provide data, control,
coordination communication
Clients
mobile
clients
fixed
clients
Servers
server
super
server
Super Servers Large Databases High Traffic
shared data
45
The Parallel Law of Computing
Grosch's Law
Parallel Law Needs Linear Speedup and
Linear Scaleup Not always possible
46
The mainframe is dead! and for sure this time!
Mainframe
PRICE
Server
PC
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Useful Aphorisms

• There are no silver bullets. Fred Brooks
• There is no such thing as a heterogeneous system.
  Butler Lampson
• You know you have a distributed system when a
  computer you have never heard of prevents yours
  from working. Leslie Lamport
• Hubris the Greek word for second system.
  Bob Stewart
• Software is like entropy, it weighs nothing,
  it is hard to understand, and it always
  increases. Norman Augustine

48
Scaleable SystemsBOTH SMP and Cluster
Grow Up with SMP 4xP6 is now standard Grow Out
with ClusterCluster has inexpensive parts
49
SMPs Have Advantages

• Single system image easier to manage easier to
  program threads in shared memory, disk,
  net
• 4x SMP is commodity
• Software capable of 16x
• Problems
• gt 4 not commodity
• scale-down problem (starter systems expensive)

50
Clusters Have Advantages

• Clients and Servers made from the same stuff.
• Inexpensive
• Built with commodity components
• Fault tolerance
• Spare modules mask failures
• Modular growth
• grow by adding small modules

51
Future SuperServer4T Machine
100 Tape Transports
1,000 tapes 1 PetaByte
1,000 discs 10 Terrorbytes
Array of 1,000 4B machines 1 bips processors, 1
BB DRAM 10 BB disks, 1 tapes 1 Bbps comm
lines A few MegaBucks Challenge Manageability Pro
grammability Security Availability Scaleability Af
fordability As easy as a single system
100 Nodes
1 Tips
High Speed Network ( 10 Gb/s)