Getting Some Traction on High School Graduation Rates

1
Getting Some Traction on High School Graduation
Rates
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On-Time High School GraduationClass of 2001,
Nation
Source Christopher Swanson. Who Graduates?
Who Doesnt? A Statistical Portrait of Public
High School Graduation, Class of
2001. The Education Policy Center. The Urban
Institute.
3
Why isnt there a mass movement to attack this
problem?
4
State-Reported Graduation Rates for African
American Students Much Higher than National
Estimates
50
Sources Consolidated State Performance Reports
for School Year 2003-04 submitted to the U.S.
Department of Education
Christopher Swanson. Who Graduates? Who
Doesnt? A Statistical Portrait of Public
High School Graduation, Class of
2001. The Education Policy Center. The Urban
Institute.
5
State-Reported Graduation Rates for Latino
Students Much Higher than National Estimates
53
Sources Consolidated State Performance Reports
for School Year 2003-04 submitted to the U.S.
Department of Education
Christopher Swanson. Who Graduates? Who
Doesnt? A Statistical Portrait of Public
High School Graduation, Class of
2001. The Education Policy Center. The Urban
Institute.
6
How Does This Happen?

• Problem 1 Bad definitions

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New Mexicos graduation-rate definition

• Number of Seniors who Graduate
• Number of Seniors

Source New Mexico Consolidated State Performance
Report for 2002-03
8
New Mexicos State-Reported Graduation Rate vs.
Independent Estimate
Sources New Mexico Consolidated State
Performance Report for School Year 2003-04
Christopher Swanson. Who Graduates?
Who Doesnt? A Statistical Portrait of Public
High School Graduation, Class of
2001. The Education Policy Center. The Urban
Institute.
9
North Carolinas graduation-rate definition

• Number of Graduates who Received their Diploma in
  Four Years or Less
• Number of Graduates

Source North Carolina Consolidated State
Performance Report for 2002-03
10
North Carolinas State-Reported Graduation Rate
vs. Independent Estimate
Sources North Carolina Consolidated State
Performance Report for School Year 2003-04
Christopher Swanson. Who Graduates?
Who Doesnt? A Statistical Portrait of Public
High School Graduation, Class of
2001. The Education Policy Center. The Urban
Institute.
11

• Problem 2 Inaccurate Data

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The most commonly used state graduation-rate
definition

• Number of Graduates
• Number of Graduates Number of Dropouts

Source National Center for Education
Statistics, Task Force on Graduation, Completion,
and Dropout Indicators
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But that definition depends on ability to capture
number of dropouts
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We dont know where the kids go.

• Indianapolis Public Schools Board President Kelly
  Bentley
• Indianapolis Star Editorial, Early Warning Signs,
  May 19, 2005

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Indianas State-Reported Graduation Rate vs.
Independent Estimate
Sources Indiana Consolidated State Performance
Report for School Year 2003-04
Christopher Swanson. Who Graduates? Who
Doesnt? A Statistical Portrait of Public
High School Graduation, Class of
2001. The Education Policy Center. The Urban
Institute.
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But The Problem Is Fixed, Right?All 50 Governors
Have Signed New Graduation Rate Compact
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But The Problem Is Fixed, Right?All 50 Governors
Have Signed New Graduation Rate Compact
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National Governors Association Task Force on
State High School Graduation DataRecommendations

• Immediately adopt and begin implementing a
  standard, four-year cohort graduation rate

On-time graduates
First-time entering 9th graders transfers in
transfers out
Source Graduation Counts A Report of the
National Governors Association Task Force on
State High School Graduation Data. 2005.
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National Governors Association Task Force on
State High School Graduation DataRecommendations

• Build states data system and capacity
• Long-term develop student-unit-record
  system
• Short-term take steps to improve existing
  data

Source Graduation Counts A Report of the
National Governors Association Task Force on
State High School Graduation Data.
2005.
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So Is Our Work As Advocates Done?
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NOT EVEN CLOSE!
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Without leadership, outside pressure and support

• It will often be easier to continue reporting
  unnecessarily bad data while new systems are put
  in place and perfected
• The process of building systems and agreeing on
  definitions will drag out indefinitely (note
  the Governors signed off, but not always others)
• Policymakers will find it too easy to devote
  insufficient attention and resources to data
  quality, even after systems are done
• And the power of honest reporting will be
  undercut by weak goals in accountability systems
  for high schools.

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What Can Advocates (of all sorts)Do?
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1. Even before systems are up and running, state
leaders need to be encouraged to report the most
honest estimate of high school graduation.

• Eg. Washington State

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Washingtons new graduation-rate
definition(modified cohort based on one years
worth of data)

• 100 (1 - 9th grade dropout rate in 2003)
• (1 - 10th grade dropout rate in 2003)
• (1 - 11th grade dropout rate in 2003)
• (1 - 12th grade dropout rate in 2003)

Source Washington Office of Superintendent of
Public Instruction. Pete Bylsma and Lisa
Ireland. September 2004.
Graduation and Dropout Statistics for
Washingtons Counties, Districts, and Schools
School Year 2002-03
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WashingtonChange in Graduation Rate Following
New Definition
Source Washington Office of Superintendent of
Public Instruction. Pete Bylsma and Lisa
Ireland. September 2004.
Graduation and Dropout Statistics for
Washingtons Counties, Districts, and Schools
School Year 2002-03
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2. Get the new grad-rate definition adopted as
state law (or at least official state board
policy)

• Eg. Maryland
• National Conference of Hispanic State Legislators

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3. Argue the case for investing sufficient
dollars in the collection, verification,
analysis, and reporting of these data.
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4. Insist on the inclusion of meaningful grad
rate goals in high school accountability systems.
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NCLB Requires States to Set Improvement Targets
for High School Graduation Rates

• 32 states hold high schools accountable for
  making any progress from the previous year
• 3 states hold high schools accountable for
  improving by one-tenth of one percent from the
  previous year
• 3 states hold high schools accountable for not
  losing ground from the previous year

Source Approved State Accountability Plans
posted on the U.S. Department of Educations
website as of April 7, 2006.
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5. Humanize the problem by putting a face on it.

• Local Reporters can be valuable allies.
• Examples Indianapolis Star, San Antonio
  News-Express, Pueblo Chieftain

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Getting Some Traction on Teacher Quality and
Distribution
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Unlike Better Data Systems, Teacher Quality and
DistributionNOT YET Prominent Part of Honor
States Agenda
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We want students to have

• A rigorous curriculum
• Taught in ways that are relevant to their lives
  and,
• Relationships with adults who care about them.

35
But aside from some assumptions about the caring
part, we havent focused much on the other
characteristics of the teachers who teach our
students.
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Wont insult you by

• Showing you yet more value-added data that shows
  how much teachers matter to student learning.
  Youve seen it before.
• Showing you yet more data that shows how much
  more likely poor and minority students are to be
  taught by teachers who are inexperienced,
  undereducated, out-of-field, or just plain
  ineffective. Youve seen that before, as well.

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Teacher Quality in Illinois and Its Impact on
College Readiness
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Teacher Quality Index Illinois Education
Research Council

• School Level Teacher Characteristics
• of Teachers with Emergency/Provisional
  Certification
• of Teachers from More/Most Selective Colleges
• of Teachers with lt 4 Years Experience
• of Teachers Failing Basic Skills Test on First
  Attempt
• School Average of Teachers ACT Composite and
  English Scores

School Teacher Quality Index (TQI)
DeAngelis, K., Presley, J. and White, B. (2005).
The Distribution of Teacher Quality in Illinois.
http//ierc.siue.edu/documents/Teacher_Quality_IER
C_202005-1.pdf
39
IERC College Readiness Index

• Uses ACT scores and self-reported GPA
• Five levels
• Not/least ready
• Minimally ready
• Somewhat ready
• More ready
• Most ready

Presley, J. and Gong, Y. (2005). The Demographics
and Academics of College Readiness in Illinois.
http//ierc.siue.edu/documents/College20Readiness
20-202005-3.pdf
40
Illinois Distribution of School TQI by School
Percent Minority

• Very high percent minority schools are likely to
  have very low school TQIs.
• There is little difference in TQI distribution
  below the highest minority quartile (i.e. below
  about 60 minority).

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Illinois Distribution of School TQI by School
Percent Free or Reduced Lunch

• TQI distribution is strongly related to school
  poverty levels.
• The differences continue across all four poverty
  quartiles.

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Student Access to Teacher Quality in High
Poverty, High Minority Schools
Presley, J. and Gong, Y. (2005). The Demographics
and Academics of College Readiness in Illinois.
http//ierc.siue.edu/documents/College20Readiness
20-202005-3.pdf
43
Teacher Quality in High Poverty, High Minority
High Schools

• Of the 159 schools in the highest TQI quartile,
  only one is a high poverty, high minority school.
• Of the 52 high poverty, high minority schools in
  the state, 41 are in the lowest TQI quartile
  while only 1 is in the highest TQI quartile.

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Impact?
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Distribution of College Readiness by High School
TQI
Presley, J. and Gong, Y. (2005). The Demographics
and Academics of College Readiness in Illinois.
http//ierc.siue.edu/documents/College20Readiness
20-202005-3.pdf
46
College Readiness at High Poverty, High Minority
Schools by TQI
Presley, J. and Gong, Y. (2005). The Demographics
and Academics of College Readiness in Illinois.
http//ierc.siue.edu/documents/College20Readiness
20-202005-3.pdf
47
Percent of Students More/Most Ready by High
School TQI and Highest Math Level
Presley, J. and Gong, Y. (2005). The Demographics
and Academics of College Readiness in Illinois.
http//ierc.siue.edu/documents/College20Readiness
20-202005-3.pdf
48
Bottom LineCollege Prep Curriculum Vital, But
Not Enough. Must Get Stronger Teachers to the
Students Who Need them Most.
49
Moving People to ACT

• An Example from California

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Minority Students Have More Underprepared Math
Science Teachers

• High minority schools have four times as many
  underprepared math and science teachers as
  low-minority schools.

Esch, C.E., Chang-Ross, C.M., Guha, R., Humphrey,
D.C., Shields, P.M., Tiffany-Morales, J.D.,
Weschler, M.E. and Woodworth, K.R. (2005). The
status of the teaching profession 2005. Santa
Cruz, CA The Center for the Future of Teaching
and Learning.
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Lowest Achieving Schools Get More Underprepared
Novice Teachers

• 1 out of every 5 teachers in the lowest achieving
  schools were underprepared or novice or both
  underprepared and novice compared to only 1 in 10
  teachers in the highest achieving schools

Esch, C.E., Chang-Ross, C.M., Guha, R., Humphrey,
D.C., Shields, P.M., Tiffany-Morales, J.D.,
Weschler, M.E. and Woodworth, K.R. (2005). The
status of the teaching profession 2005. Santa
Cruz, CA The Center for the Future of Teaching
and Learning.
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A Tale of Two Schools

• Locke High School
• Los Angeles Unified
• 99 Latino African American
• 66 of students receive free or reduced price
  lunch
• Academic Performance Index 440

• Granada Hills High School
• Los Angeles Unified
• 32 Latino African American
• 27 of students receive free or reduced price
  lunch
• Academic Performance Index 773

Source CA Department of Education, 2003-04 data
53

• The average teacher at Locke High School gets
  paid an estimated 8,034 less every year than his
  counterpart at Granada Hills High School.
• If Locke spent as much as Granada Hills on
  teacher salaries for its 119 teachers, the school
  budget would increase by nearly a million dollars
  (956,056) every year.

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A Tale of Two Schools

• Mission High School
• San Francisco Unified
• 67 Latino African American
• 75 of students receive free or reduced price
  lunch
• Academic Performance Index 518

• Washington High School
• San Francisco Unified
• 13 Latino African American
• 37 of students receive free or reduced price
  lunch
• Academic Performance Index 760

Source CA Department of Education, 2003-04 data
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• The average teacher at Mission High School gets
  paid an estimated 9,901 less every year than his
  counterpart at Washington High School.
• If Mission spent as much as Washington on teacher
  salaries for its 57 teachers, the school budget
  would increase by 564,357 every year.

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Yet, in accordance with state policy, both school
districts report to the public the SAME average
teacher salary at each school.
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You want to know how to galvanize the public to
action?

• This is a pretty good way.