An International Survey of Gun Laws and Violent Crime:

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An International Survey of Gun Laws and Violent
Crime

• The Republic of Ireland,
• Jamaica, Great Britain,
• Australia, and Canada

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Dr. Gary A Mauser

• Professor
• Institute for Canadian Urban Research Studies
• Faculty of Business Administration
• Simon Fraser University
• Burnaby, BC, Canada
• Presented to the Annual Meeting of the American
  Society of Criminology
• Renaissance Hotel, Nashville, Tennessee
• Saturday, 20 November 2004

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Do British-style firearm regulations create a
safer society?

• Gun laws are explicitly focused on controlling
  firearms, but
• The promise is that more restrictive gun laws
  will make society safer
• What is the international evidence?

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An experiment in Brazil

• The gun law is to cut the spiral of
  violence..
• President Luiz da Silva, Brazil
• The amnesty is the latest step in the Brazil
  governments efforts to reduce violent crime.
• BBC report November 11, 2003

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Promises in South Africa

• South Africa hopes to make a dent in its
  frighteningly high crime rate with a new
  gun-control law that went into effect
• Agence France Presse, National Post, July 3,
  2004, A10
• We believe that in the long term these laws will
  ultimately create a safer South Africa.
• Police spokesman Andrew Lesch, July 3, 2004

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How can we measure improvements in public safety?

• Violent crime rates should drop
• Homicide rates should fall
• Not just criminal violence involving guns, but
  all criminal violence should fall
• Not just gun homicide, but total homicide

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Which measures are the most appropriate?

• Gun deaths
• Gun violence
• Total violent crime
• Robbery, armed robbery
• Total homicide (or murder)

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Gun Death is a Red Herring

• Gun deaths are largely suicides
• Suicide is not central to public safety
• Substitution effect is supported empirically
• The removal of firearms or sharps must balance
  liberty with personal safety

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Gun death is mostly suicide

• 57 of gun deaths in the US are due to suicides
• 77 of gun deaths in Canada are due to suicides

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Gun Violence

• It is relevant to ask whether gun laws cause gun
  violence to decrease (or increase),
• But is this the best measure of public safety?
• A policy could reduce gun violence, but overall
  violent crime could still increase
• Gun crime is a small fraction of violent crime

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Gun violence is a small fraction of violent crime

• Violent crime involving firearms
• Canada (2003) 2
• England and Wales (2001) 1
• United States (1999) 7

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The most appropriate measures of public safety

• Homicide rate (or murder)
• Violent crime rate
• Robbery, armed robbery

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International trends compared with trends in the
US

• Countries that have introduced harsh general
  firearms laws in the 1990s
• Australia, Great Britain, and Canada
• Countries that completely banned firearms in the
  1970s
• Republic of Ireland and Jamaica

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A natural quasi-experiment

• The justice system in the United States has
  increasingly diverged from that in Britain or in
  the Commonwealth
• Arrest/conviction rates higher in the US,
• Sentencing/punishment more severe, and
• Citizens can carry concealed handguns.

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Please Note

• To assess the effect of laws, we must compare
  trends across countries
• Direct comparison of international averages is
  inappropriate
• Police statistics, despite limitations, are the
  best international measure

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Republic of Ireland

• Gun prohibition and terrorism

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Irish Gun Law

• Firearms prohibited and confiscated in 1972
• Concern with terrorism motivated this action as
  well as other police activities

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Murders continue to increase
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Jamaica

• The Gun Court and Drug Violence

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Jamaican Gun Laws

• Gun court (1974 - 1982)
• Firearms and ammunition prohibited
• Mandatory life sentences
• No bail, no jury trials for charges of possession
  of firearm or ammunition crimes,
• Firearm ownership still prohibited

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Murders continue to increase
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Jamaican crime trends
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Violent crime continues to increase
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Great Britain
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Firearm laws have targeted legal owners

• The Firearms Amendment of 1988 was brought in
  following the Hungerford incident
• Brought in shotgun licences
• The Firearms Amendment of 1997 was brought in
  after the Dunblane shooting
• Prohibited and confiscated all handguns

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Homicide increasing
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Murders increasing in Scotland
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Violent crime rates increasing
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Robbery is increasing but gun ownership (legal)
is decreasing
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Very few firearms used in homicide are legally
held
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Australia
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Australian firearms legislation

• In 1997, government brought in sweeping firearms
  legislation following shootings in Tasmania
• Prohibited and confiscated semi-automatic long
  arms,
• Introduced strict new licencing and registration
  regulations

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Homicide rates stable in Australia since 1997
gun law
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Violent crime growing in Australia, but falling
in the United States
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Robbery rates are climbing in Australia but
falling in the US
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Canada
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Canadian firearms legislation

• 1977, introduced police screening for firearm
  purchasers
• 1991, stiffer rules for ownership, prohibited a
  variety of firearms, magazines
• 1995, owner licensing and universal firearm
  registration banned many handguns

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Homicide rates decreasing faster in the US than
in Canada
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Violent crime rates are basically flat in Canada,
but falling in the US
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Decline in firearm suicide rate does not reduce
total suicide rate
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1995 Canadian firearms regulations

• Total costs expected to reach 2 billion in 2004
• Originally estimated to cost 2 million
• Corruption investigation ongoing
• No visible effect on violent crime rates or
  suicide rates

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Summary

• No evidence that restrictive firearm regulations
  have reduced violent crime or homicide rates in
  Canada, Australia, Great Britain, Jamaica, or the
  Republic of Ireland
• Only the United States has witnessed a dramatic
  drop in criminal violence

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Tentative conclusions

• British-style firearm laws and gun bans are
  ineffective and expensive
• Prediction new gun laws will fail in both Brazil
  and South Africa to curb violent crime or
  homicide