Washington County

1
Washington County

• An Economic Update
• August 14, 2008

2
Washington County Net Migration
Source Utah Population Estimates Committee Utah
Governors Office of Planning and Budget.
3
Migration of Washington County Residents
Source U.S. Census Bureau, American Community
Survey.
4
In the business world, the rearview mirror is
always clearer than the windshield.

• Warren Buffet

5
Nonfarm Job Growth and Recession
Year-over Growth in U.S. Nonfarm Jobs
Source U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics National
Bureau of Economic Research.
6
Washington County Year-Over Change in Nonfarm Jobs
Source Utah Department of Workforce Services.
7
"The world went mad. What we learn from history
is that people dont learn from history."

• Warren Buffet

8
Washington County Nonfarm Job Growth
Source Utah Department of Workforce Services.
9
Washington County New Hires Four-Qtr Moving
Average
Source U.S. Census Bureau Local Employment
Dynamics Program.
10
Washington County New Hires and
SeparationsFour-Qtr Moving Average
Source U.S. Census Bureau Local Employment
Dynamics Program.
11
March 2007 March 2008 Washington County
Numeric Change in Jobs by Industry
Source Utah Department of Workforce Services.
12
Washington County Numeric Change in Jobs by
Industry
Source Utah Department of Workforce Services.
13
Unfortunately, the hangover may prove to be
proportional to the binge.

• Warren Buffet

14
Year-over Change in MSA Area Housing Price Index
(HPI)
Source Office of Federal Housing Enterprise
Oversight, http//www.ofheo.gov/hpi.aspx.
15
Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.

• Warren Buffet

16
Year-over Change in Housing Price Index (HPI)
Compared to Annual Change in Average Monthly Wage
Source Office of Federal Housing Enterprise
Oversight, Utah Department of Workforce Services.
17
Washington County New Residential Building
Permit Valuation
Millions of
Source Utah Bureau of Business and Economic
Research.
18
Washington County Permitted New Dwelling Units
Source Utah Bureau of Business and Economic
Research.
19
Washington County New Nonresidential Building
Permit Valuation
Millions of
Source Utah Bureau of Business and Economic
Research.
20
Percent Change in Washington County Total Permit
Authorized Construction Values
JanuaryJune 2007 compared to January-June 2008
Source Utah Bureau of Business and Economic
Research.
21
Year-over Change in Washington County Homes Sold
Source Utah Association of Realtors.
22
Supply is Up Demand is Down

• Extraordinary number of homes and lots on the
  market.
  
• Realtytrac reported one in very 163 housing units
  in Washington County is in foreclosure-17th MSA
  in nation.
  
• Many individuals are upside down in their
  homes.
  
• Credit has tightenedfew can obtain mortgages.
• Perfect storm for declining prices.
• This market adjustment will take time.

23
Look at market fluctuations as your friend
rather than your enemy profit from folly rather
than participate in it.

• Warren Buffet

24
Washington County Year-Over Change in Gross
Taxable Sales
Source Utah Tax Commission.
25
Percent Change in Washington County Gross
Taxable Sales
Source Utah State Tax Commission.
26
When the masses get greedy, I get scared.

• Warren Buffet

27
Theres no free lunch.

• Milton Friedman