Storm Chasers:

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Storm Chasers

• Harnessing Risk Through Fearless Project
  Management
• Nancy Wendorf
• Sr. Project Manager
• General Dynamics

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A.K.A. Other Names

• Nurse Rachet
• Queen Bee
• Visionary (n)
• Wicked Witch of the West
• The Cleaner
• Strategic Genius
• Aunt Nancy
• Mom
• Muth-errr (Whiney teenagers)
• Nana-Nan (Fun grandmother)
• Grambo (Ninja Grandmother)

• Storm Chaser
• Buffy - The Vampire Slayer
• Storm Trooper
• Hormone from Hell
• That Woman
• Czarina
• That Bitch
• Alien Mother
• Miffy - The Weather Girl
• Warden Wendorf
• Hatchet Woman

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PROLOGUE
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Objectives

• Overview skill sets required to weather project
  storms
• Understand successful survival techniques in a
  strategically dynamic global economy

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A Typical Day at Work ???

• Innocence Unawareness
• Missed commitments
• Big surprises
• Constant firefighting - finger pointing
• Upper management edicts/disclosures
• Multiply by x teams on one project

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"There are risks and costs to a program of
action but they are far less than the
long-range risks and costs of comfortable
inaction." - John F. Kennedy 35th US
President
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Chaser Mentality / Profile

• High-Sensation Seekers
• Dare Devils ???
• Brains wired to rewarding neurochemicals
• Extreme optimists
• High stimulus seekers
• Lower heart rate
• More alert to process information

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Storm Chaser / Reality Base

• Those who dare - usually win
• Strategic risk analysts live longer
• Have more friends
• Less likely to get Parkinsons
• Optimism changes nervous system boosts immune
  response
• Parallel Chasers are common

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Chasers worth their salt

• Are seasoned strategic risk managers
• Understand all facets of risk management
• All are clinically circumspect
• Trust instincts
• Understand no one is perfect

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Why .Do..Questions ???
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Why .Do..

• - Exceptional Project Managers seek the ordeal of
  managing high risk, high visible projects?

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Why .Do..

• - Chasers seek the thrill (and crave) competitive
  opportunities of new startup business projects?

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Why .Do..

• - CEOs seek out Storm Chaser Managers and why
  do they have enduring ties to customers and team
  members?

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Why .Are..

• - Motivational and influence concepts extremely
  important for these project managers?

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The Holy Grail Project Management Body of
Knowledge (PMBOK)

• PMBOK Guide Disclaimer
• Good practice does not mean that the knowledge
  described should always be applied uniformly on
  all projects
• the project management team is responsible for
  determining what is appropriate for any given
  project.

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The Holy Grail (PMBOK)

• As soon as a new edition is printed its out of
  date
• Proven traditional practices
• Gives general overview
• Provides standard lexicon
• Audience diverse (executive to analyst)

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The Holy Grail (PMBOK)

• Does not cover
• Earned Value Lying
• Political Nepotism
• Inheritance rights - off loading bad projects
• Organizational restrictions/inhibitors
• HMIs, inadequate tools, training, capability
  issues, succession planning
• Does not hyper link document to sort info

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Finding-Stopping-Creating Storms

• Storm chasers vs. Storm spotters
• Chasers can do all three
• Spotters report/analyze trends
• Spotters are members of a chaser team
• Chasers determine severity of the storm or
  pending storm assessments
• Chasers have authority and experience to stop
  storms
• Chasers can create storms to establish needed
  changes

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Shhh! Did someone say Risk?

• Risk fears ?
• The BIG management question
• Darwinism Effect
• Coping or fixing your companys culture

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RISK LINGO

• Know the Talk
• Then Walk the Talk
• Definitions/Semantics of Risk
• Numerous concepts by experts
• Risk Issues are unarguably contentious
• Incompatible evaluations
• Conflicting views for mitigating risk

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Why Risk Perceptions Vary

• Different info than their colleagues
• Incompatible interests
• Substantial and fundamentally different concepts
  of risk
• Concept of risk is a mind set fixed by broad
  parameters
• Linguistic debates must be stopped

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RISK TALK LINGUISTICS

• A One Minute Crash Course !

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RISK (Websters Definition)

• Risk is the possibility of suffering loss
• A possibility of loss, the loss itself, or any
  characteristic, object, or actions that is
  associated with that possibility

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Risk Categories

• Risk denial
• Risk abatement
• Risk mitigation
• Risk sharing

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Two Main Attributes of Risk
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RISK STATEMENT

• An articulation of a project condition which
  leads to risk with consequences foreseen from
  that condition
• (A primary data brick on which risk process
  are built)

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RISK MANAGEMENT

• The practice with processes, methods and tools
  for managing risks in a project
• (Provides disciplined environment for proactive
  decision making)

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RM Environment

• Assess continuously what could go wrong (risks)
• Determine which risks are important to deal with
• Implement strategies to deal with those risks

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Cognitive Risk

• Risk in the context of human experience as
  defined by the definitions of real, observed, and
  perceived risk

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Real Risk

• The combination of chance and negative
  consequences that exist in the real world

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Observed Risk

• The evaluation of the combination of chance and
  negative consequences as measured by theoretical
  model of the real world

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Perceived Risk

• The estimate of real risk made in the absence of
  a theoretical model of the real world

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Glorified Risk

• Made up risk to glorify (hero) those that have
  identified it(sand-baggers) with elaborative
  costly plans to solve it.

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RISK vs. PROBLEM

• Whats the difference ????
• (Hmmmm)

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RISK vs. PROBLEM

• Risk identifiers
• Future situations
• Uncertainty
• Action may or may not be needed
• Numerous consequences possible
• Have time to prevent

• Problem Identifiers
• Current situations
• Well defined/understood
• Action needed
• Impact is known
• Reaction mode

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RISK ATTTUDES

• Risk-averse
• Risk-seeking
• Risk-neutral

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RISK-AVERSE

• Conservative risk attitude
• Preference for secure payoffs
• Risk averse people
• Good middle managers, administrators, and
  engineers
• Key characteristics
• Practical, accepting, common sense

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RISK-SEEKING

• Preference for speculative payoffs
• Risk seeker people
• Good entrepreneurs and negotiators
• Key Characteristics
• Adaptable, resourceful, enjoy life and are
  fearless to take action

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RISK-NEUTRAL

• Preference for future payoffs
• Risk neutral people
• Good executives, system architects and group
  leaders
• Key Characteristics
• Think abstractly, creatively, and envision
  possibilities

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STORM MANAGEMENT PROCESS

• (Phew. finally got here !)

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FIVE STEP PROCESS

• Establish the context
• Identify risk
• Evaluate and prioritize risk
• Decide how to control risks implement RM
  program
• Sustainable maintenance of RMP

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1.Establish context

• Process begins with identifying what role risk
  management has in your company
• Need answers to many ???s

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WHATWHICHHOW QUESTIONS

• (Questions you will need to ask to identify
  context of RM in your company)

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• WHAT
• Is the companys view of risk something to be
  avoided or a natural part of the companys
  operations and mission?

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• WHAT
• Barriers or potential barriers exist to the
  development of a RM program?

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• WHAT
• Issues will make it particularly challenging for
  this company to establish a RM program?

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• WHAT
• Are the signs or motivating factors that will
  increase the organizations receptivity to RM
  activities?

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• WHICH
• Internal stakeholders should be involved in the
  creation of a RM program?

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• WHICH
• External stakeholders should be involved in the
  creation of a RM program?

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• HOW
• Supportive is the upper level management to
  developing a RM program?
• WILL
• They need to be sold on the idea?

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• What
• Organizational strengths will support a RM
  program?

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• What
• Organizational weaknesses may impair a RM program?

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2. Identify Risk

• The process to determine what can happen, why and
  how
• Identify risk cross-functionally in brainstorming
  sessions
• Identify functional areas first
• Identify what uncertainties threaten the mission
• No right or wrong way to go in this process

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3. Evaluate/Prioritize

• Goal in this step is to create a practical
  workable list to focus RM efforts and resources
• At first all risks will appear to be top priority
  
• Begin probabilities and weighting of list

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4. Implementation of RMP

• Most active process that develops strategies to
  mitigate risk
• These strategies are tested by the organization

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5. Monitor and Update

• RM is a circular process
• Must establish a RM Review Board
• Must constantly reassess old risks and establish
  new ones
• Commit to learning from experiences

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RISK MANAGEMENT MATURITY MODEL

• (According to Carnegie-Mellon University
  RMMM-CMMI-SEI)

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Four Levels of RMMM

• Ad Hoc - (Worship The Hero)
• Initial - (Try It Out)
• Repeatable - (Plan The Work, Work The Plan)
• Managed (Measure The Work, Work the Measure)

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Four Levels of RM Maturity
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1. Ad Hoc-(Worship The Hero)

• Unaware of the need for RM
• No structured approach
• Process (if existing) are reactive and repetitive
• Little or no attempt to learn from past failures
• Most difficult step moving to L-2

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2. Initial (Try It Out)

• This level experiments with the application of RM
• No formal structure or RM process
• Some individuals learn from past mistakes
• RM in crystallization of experience phase

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Repeatable (Plan The Work, Work The Plan)

• Risk process is institutionalized across the
  organization
• No longer risk averse culture
• Identified group is responsible for RM
• Disseminates lessons learned, successes across
  organization

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4. Managed (Measure The Work, Work The Measure)

• Organization has implemented RM into their
  routine business processes
• Generic risk policies are formalized
• Project by project visibility is created and
  reported through RM
• Risk manager role is active and reports costs and
  risk status

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EPILOGUE

• You in the back
• WAKE UP !

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Risk Summary

• No Crystal Balls
• Not Rocket Science
• No tools or forms will bring success
• Its about Day-To-Day thinking
• Moving up the RM stairway to match your companys
  needs

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I pronounce you all

• Risk Analysts
• Probabilists
• Decision Theorists
• Storm Chasers
• ..I wish you the best of luck in your Storm
  Chasing (risk management) endeavors ! ! !

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Thanks... For Inviting Me !

• Nancy.Wendorf_at_gdc4s.com